Can Mayawati & Sonia ‘Hug Away’ Problems of a United Opposition?

Mayawati and Sonia Gandhi’s never-before-seen ‘love fest’ at Vidhan Soudha this week is a sign of the times to come.

Will Mayawati have the last laugh?

(Photo: PTI/Altered by The Quint)

The extraordinary public display of affection between Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi and BSP chief Mayawati palpably stole the limelight at the swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy.

It was the stand-out moment among other scenes of bonhomie between various Opposition leaders in this deliberately orchestrated show of unity against the Modi government.

Yet, for these two normally reserved women leaders to get all ‘touchy feely’ about each other, hugging and holding hands seemed to go beyond mere political choreography.

Mayawati’s Change of Stance

For ‘Behenji’, this is a radical departure from her usual, aloof, exclusivist political style that has kept her away from all such shows of Opposition solidarity over the decades –whether against a dominant Congress in the past or, more recently, an overbearing BJP.

While her mentor and BSP founder Kanshi Ram was far more upbeat about meeting leaders of other parties to forge political alliances, Mayawati had consistently opposed such collaborative ventures as being counter-productive. The only exception she made was when other parties chose to support her bid for power.

Although Mayawati’s refusal to negotiate with possible allies except on her own terms had worked well when she was on the ascend, such an uncompromising political stance became a major handicap when her political fortunes started dipping.

In her bastion Uttar Pradesh, for instance, despite still getting a fair number of votes from her core Jatav base, the BSP’s numbers have drastically shrunk over the past decade.

This has entirely erased the BSP from the benches of the Lok Sabha in the last parliamentary election, reducing it to just a rump in the state Vidhan Sabha after the 2017 assembly polls.

Till she recently reached out to her old regional rival, Samajwadi Party, offering support for two key parliamentary bypolls in Gorakhpur and Phulpur to ensure the defeat of the BJP, there were many who felt that Mayawati was headed for political oblivion.

Dalits, Yadavs, Jats, Muslims of UP Come Together

There was fresh evidence of this partnership, as Mayawati waved from the stage with Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav – the first time the formerly bitter rivals have done so. Greeting other party leaders together and sitting next to each other through the swearing-in function, both appeared to be already behaving like partners.

Interestingly, the presence of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh, the leader of the powerful Jat community in Western Uttar Pradesh, on the stage provided a glimpse into the contours of the emerging social alliance between Dalits, Yadavs, Jats and Muslims in Uttar Pradesh.

This emerging alliance will be tested later this week in the Kairana bypoll, where a Muslim candidate of the RLD, backed by the BSP and the Samajwadi Party, is contesting against the BJP.

Yet, despite the enormous importance of this crucial electoral combine in Uttar Pradesh, it is the ‘love fest’ on stage between Mayawati and Sonia Gandhi – with the latter’s son and successor Rahul looking on benignly – that has far more national significance.

It must be said that the Congress matriarch has travelled a remarkable distance from the days she was Rajiv Gandhis’s reticent wife, visibly shrinking away from the rough and tumble of politics and the unfamiliar world of Indian netas.

Over the years, she has shown impressive skill in learning the tricks of the trade, befriending even such characters as Lalu Prasad Yadav and M Karunanidhi. However, Sonia Gandhi has never been so physically demonstrative to other political leaders as she has been at the Karnataka Vidhan Soudha this week.

Mayawati for PM?

Interestingly, it is Sonia Gandhi who leaned forward to touch her forehead to Mayawati’s. She held up Mayawati’s arms as the other leaders raised theirs to demonstrate Opposition unity. It clearly suggested that it was the former Congress president that had initiated the public exhibition of their friendship.

On her part, Mayawati responded warmly to the gesture and was seen speaking animatedly to Rahul Gandhi. Mayawati had obviously decided to forget, for the moment, his savage barb that she was “an elephant who fed on currency notes” while campaigning against her when she was in power.

There is most likely a political backstory to the show put up by Mayawati and the Gandhis in Karnataka. It is quite possible that this indicates that a larger alliance between the Congress and the BSP in the upcoming assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has already been agreed upon. Had this not been the case, the two, while remaining cordial, would not have gone out of their way to flaunt their camaraderie.

In all three states, the BSP – although much smaller than the Congress – has some presence, being the third largest party that has been regularly winning seats over the past several assembly polls. This is particularly true in Madhya Pradesh, where support from the BSP could make a vital difference to the Congress in the constituencies bordering the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh.

Such an alliance could also be a deciding factor in Chhattisgarh, where the combined vote of the BSP and the Congress in the last assembly polls was more than that of the BJP.

Mayawati May Have the Last Laugh

Most importantly, the new camaraderie between the Congress leadership and Mayawati, along with the latter’s growing regional partnership with the Samajwadi Party, is a major boost to the chances of a united Opposition challenging the mighty Modi juggernaut in 2019.

With the Dalit vote considered to be the X-factor in the elections, Mayawati may well have pulled herself from the edge of the precipice to a vantage point. It would explain why, of all the Opposition leaders on the stage, she looked the happiest.

(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)