In Nitish’s Somersaults Lie Political Ambitions Ahead of 2019

Supporting Ram Nath Kovind is another instance of Nitish doing cartwheels as he looks for a suitable ally.

(Photo: Rhythum Seth/ The Quint)

Irrespective of how long the once-fancied Mahagathbandhan of Bihar lurches along, or doesn’t, its spearhead has framed himself in a corner quite his own. Indian politics is no stranger to deft practitioners of the somersault; Nitish Kumar cartwheels. Across enemy lines.

A quick catalogue of his past allies – Lalu. CPI(ML). BJP. Back to Lalu, with the Congress thrown in. His latest leap? Having angrily retorted to Narendra Modi’s “Congress-mukt Bharat” campaign with a “Sangh-mukt Bharat” cry last year, Nitish Kumar has now decided to promote a dyed-in-the wool Sanghi, Ram Nath Kovind, to Rashtrapati Bhawan.

Also Read: Rift Between Lalu and Nitish Over GST Launch Attendance

Nitish’s Political Nature

Nitish Kumar is a most changeable man. What doesn’t change about him is a falcon focus on power; he will do what the exigencies of holding on to power dictate to him.

Journalist Sankarshan Thakur has a telling portion on Nitish Kumar’s political nature and how it dovetails into the requirements of power in Single Man, his biography of the man who is in his third successive term as chief minister of Bihar: “Nitish’s takeaway from reading the life of Krishna… was not to struggle but how to wage (war) and win it. Focus on the objective was key. ”

Every trick was worth employing if the cause was deemed just – fib, falsehood, cunning, craftiness, deceit, subterfuge, fraud, <i>saam</i>, <i>dana</i>, <i>dand</i>, <i>bhed</i>… Ends always justified the means. This has been one of the guiding principles of Nitish’s life: to get to the goal, do what it takes… Remember his assertion as a university student and aspiring neta? <i>Satta prapt karoonga</i>, by hook or by crook… In 2002, as an unspeakable horror convulsed Gujarat, Nitish’s eye remained riveted on ousting Laloo (from Bihar); that was his end. If the means required him to stick with the BJP that is what he would do. Nothing would shake him, not even the call of conscience.

Excerpt from <i>Single Man</i>

Will Nitish Walk Out of the Alliance?

• Nitish’s latest political stand of supporting NDA’s presidential candidate has made him a suspect across the political spectrum.
  
• Recent charges of money laundering levelled against Lalu’s family could not be behind Nitish’s disillusionment.
  
• Nitish’s latest political tilt is inspired by his political ambition to look for a suitable alliance partner.
  
• Despite being a three-time chief minister, Nitish hasn’t been able to claim an impressive vote share.
  
• By backing Kovind as President, Nitish could have paved way for ‘ghar wapsi’
  

Threat to Mahagathbandhan?

Remarkably, it doesn’t seem to shake Nitish Kumar either that his wondrously malleable loyalty may have rendered him suspect in eyes across the political spectrum. The truth is Nitish Kumar’s trust quotient is very low in the political market. Lalu and the Congress know he could give them the slip any convenient moment; the memory of the “betrayal” of 2013, shortly before the anointment of Narendra Modi as prime ministerial candidate, must be freshly bitter in the BJP.

That Nitish Kumar has resumed playing “guess me, guess my game” is not lost on his current and former allies. And yet, neither is in a position to call his game.

Lalu and the Congress would rather have power in Bihar than confront Nitish’s political unilateralism (on the Presidential nominee, for instance) or pull the plug on his government. The BJP, keen to shore up ranks and numbers ahead of 2019, would probably not be averse to having him back in the NDA fold.

The good question to ask remains why Nitish Kumar appears suddenly fidgety with an alliance that has secure numbers in the Bihar Assembly. Why might he be sending out contrary, and often enigmatic, signals to allies and adversaries? It is simplistic to put it down merely to allegations of financial misdemeanour the Lalu clan has recently been peppered with. Or even to the prospect of Lalu himself being put behind bars yet again.

It cannot be that any of this has taken Nitish Kumar by unpleasant surprise. As one who initiated the probe into the fodder scam decades ago, and by dint having been chief minister for more than a decade, he would be all too familiar with the shape and weight of skeletons in the Lalu cupboard.

Also Read: Nitish Has a ‘Huge Trust Deficit’ With Oppn After Prez Polls

Doing Cartwheels

Someday, when he decides it’s time for another cartwheel, Nitish will surely make Lalu his pommel horse, but that won’t be why he cartwheeled. He will do so because he knows well, he cannot have another term as chief minister, which he dearly seeks, in alliance with Lalu. The alliance is already unwieldy and unsustainable. He is equally warm to the truth that he will need a ride to power, he can’t get there on his own.

The simple truth is Nitish Kumar has never won Bihar without a significant ally. When he partnered the CPI(ML) in his first bid to unseat Lalu in 1995, he was tossed out on his ear; he won seven seats.

It is only in alliance with the BJP and later Lalu, that he could get to power. One of the abiding ironies of being Nitish Kumar is that he is perhaps the only chief minister to have won three consecutive terms and yet not have a critical mass of a votebank. He crafted an image as Bihar’s change-agent; he never could provide himself political ballast.

Artful Shifter

In plumping for Kovind as Rashtrapati, Nitish could well have made the inaugural moves for a “wapasi”. And who knows he might yet extend the guessing game by switching to back the UPA nominee for Vice President?

He is an artful shifter, Nitish Kumar, but in shifting and shifting again and again, he may just have worn his credibility a little thin.

So thin that should he return to the BJP – and should the BJP accept him – he will feel the rub of his former allies hard on the skin. This, after all, isn’t the BJP of the genial Atal Bihari Vajpayee; Narendra Modi is in charge and he has his own history with Nitish.

Also Read: Yes, Nitish Kumar Blundered By Backing the NDA on Kovind

(The writer has been a keen observer of Bihar politics. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)