Uncertainty Looms Over First Trump-Modi Meet – What Will It Bring?

Modi’s visit comes at a time of great uncertainty about the role of America in the world order, writes Seema Sirohi.

Narendra Modi and Donald Trump are set to meet in Washington DC on 26 June.

(Photo: Rhythm Seth/ The Quint)

Buffeted by new geopolitical winds unleashed by none other than his host Donald Trump, it will be a sober Narendra Modi at the White House this time, not the showman on a triumphal tour who got the rockstar treatment on his first visit as prime minister.

Washington is not a happy place these days. As multiple domestic battles rage over the Trump campaign’s alleged connections to Russia, it’s political theatre without an intermission. National attention is exhausted by continuous revelations, leaks and Congressional hearings on whether Trump obstructed justice when he fired FBI director James Comey. Foreign leaders have come and gone, with barely a mention in the national newspapers.

Also Read: Trade, Terrorism Major Agenda in Modi-Trump’s US Meet on 26 June

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet US President Donald Trump in Washington on 26 June
  
• The meeting comes at a time of great uncertainty about the role of the United States in the world order it helped build
  
• Fighting terrorism, promoting economic growth and expanding security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region have been listed as priorities for the meet
  
• Expectations, however, have deliberately been kept low – Trump is mercurial and unpredictable
  
• Will Trump agree that investing in India is in America’s strategic interest?
  

A Meet in the Times of Uncertainty

PM Modi’s visit to Washington comes at a time of great uncertainty about the role of the United States in the world order it helped build. If Indian strategists had doubts before about America’s commitment to India – which is neither an ally nor an adversary – they have multiplied in the age of Trump.

The background noise for the visit is somewhat negative – Trump’s strong views on limiting H-1B visa fraud, his gratuitous claim that India signed the Paris Agreement to get billions of dollars and his administration’s early moves to order reviews of 16 countries that have a trade deficit with the US. These are not auspicious beginnings.

But none of these is likely to be thrashed out at the leaders’ level. It will be a “big picture” meeting where the two assess each other – an extremely important exercise to help decide how much to lean in. Personal chemistry would be an important element. Modi’s challenge is to convince Trump of India’s worldview, especially about China and Pakistan and that too in sound bites.

What’s on the Table?

The White House has listed three common priorities for the meeting – fighting terrorism, promoting economic growth and expanding security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. All worthy causes with which to reinvigorate the partnership but if the terms are narrowly defined, the road ahead could be tough.

For instance, defeating terrorism can’t only be defined in terms of fighting ISIS. It must include countries that have made terrorism a foreign policy doctrine, one of them being India’s neighbour.

The timing of the 26 June visit was debated at length – should Modi be among the first few leaders to be welcomed by the new US president, thereby asserting India’s importance as a “first friend”? Or should New Delhi wait to see where the new administration’s policies are going before taking a plunge into the unknown?

Also Read: Trump-Modi Meet to Set Forth Vision to Expand Indo-US Ties: WH

In the end, New Delhi didn’t want to be among the last, or dilute the effect by having a bilateral on the sidelines during the G-20 meet in July, or schedule a visit during the UN General Assembly in September.

Expectations have deliberately been kept low for a reason – Trump is mercurial and unpredictable. His deputies can only do so much to reassure America’s partners by stressing the positive. He is known to contradict them with aplomb, the most recent case being the Qatar blockade by Saudi Arabia.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for calm but POTUS reveled in the punishment. Trump criticised Qatar for sponsoring terrorism but last week simultaneously authorised a $21-billion arms sale to the country.

There is no telling what the presidential disposition might be on a given day. Even if he smiles at India, the lack of a fully-staffed administration, with hundreds of key positions unfilled, will make execution of policy difficult.

Also Read: Engaging American Lawmakers Can Help PM Modi Consolidate Ties

Will Trump Treat India as an Ally?

Early enthusiasm in Delhi about Trump taking a strong stand on China and Pakistan and reconnecting with Russia, thereby creating more diplomatic space for India, has faded somewhat, giving way to wariness and even anxiety.

The biggest question facing Modi is whether Trump sees a strong India to be in the America national interest as his predecessors Barack Obama and George W Bush. They saw the importance of a rising India in maintaining a stable balance of power in Asia, especially in light of China’s aggressive moves.

A respected US analyst, who has advised past presidents, said Trump might just “shrug” if someone tried to explain India’s importance in balancing China.

But if Trump agrees that investing in India is in America’s strategic interest, the upward trajectory of bilateral relations would continue, however slowly, although he is more likely to take the tack, “what have you done for me lately?” to which India has few good answers.

(The writer is a senior Washington-based journalist. She can be reached at @seemasirohi. The views expressed in this article are of the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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