advertisement
A section of political analysts would just refuse to come out of their own make-believe world. They would not believe that the 90 percent winning record achieved by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in selected states in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections could be maintained, or even bettered.
That Narendra Modi’s charisma could vanquish Mamata Banerjee’s fortress in West Bengal. That the SP-BSP’s formidable caste arithmetic, consisting of Yadavs-Muslims- Jatavs, three of the dominant electoral groups in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, could be surpassed.
That the people could vote very differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, especially if the two were held in quick succession. That people would ignore visible rural stress and mass unemployment and yet overwhelmingly vote for the BJP.
What the BJP has achieved, instead, is staggering. Here is a quick snapshot:
I belonged to the camp that was sceptical of a BJP encore performance. Let me admit candidly how horribly wrong I was. All data points had convinced me that a repeat of what happened in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was almost impossible.
My conviction, based on my own sense of the country’s electoral history, made me blind to the changes happening all around.
My myopic worldview, coloured as it was by a set of past data, would refuse to believe that ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’ (Modi can make anything possible). It allowed me to believe that despite the Modi magic shining bright, and all too visibly, it was likely to face a roadblock under the weight of its own colossal electoral performance achieved five years ago.
Through the latest election victory, Modi has done precisely that.
My line of analysis received a bloody blow following the publication of the exit poll results. The confirmation came on 23 May, when the entire world witnessed what is now called a ‘Modi Tsunami’.
Why is it so? Other than its intrinsic value built on aggressive Hindutva, masculine nationalism, tireless pursuit of goals and ruthless implementation of what is deemed good for the people, the rise of ‘brand Modi’ is directly proportional to the erosion in credibility of the competing ‘idea of India’.
The latest verdict, therefore, is a blow to the proponents of the competing idea of India. Why are they staring at oblivion? Because of their duplicity, perhaps.
While they celebrate the country’s diversity and shun any attempt to discriminate on the basis of primordial identities, they have been selective in their approach. While they have celebrated the rise of caste-based parties with the justification that caste is a reality, their vehement opposition to religion-based mobilisations, therefore, looks hollow.
If only they had shunned both with equal conviction, they would have retained their credibility. Unfortunately, that has not been the case.
If certain sections feel threatened, and rightly so, by some groups that blatantly espouse the virtues of one religion over all others, the same rule applies to all those who are at the receiving end of caste-based discrimination. We cannot have double standards here and yet take pride in the idea of India that should be inclusive and not exclusive.
The proponents of the competing idea of India (the so-called liberal-secular brigade) have followed a top-down approach – believe in these ideas because I say so.
It is very much like the constitutionalism of the Congress in pre-Independence India, where some leaders would sit and deliberate on issues concerning the people, without taking feedback from the ground.
The verdict is also a blow to all the political formations that demand loyalty on the basis of caste affiliations of their leaders. While politicians like Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ajit Singh or Mayawati may have given voice to the people they claim to represent, have they done enough to fulfil the rising aspirations of the same groups? Will the same slogan of social justice work for years?
The verdict has also shown that you have to be among the people before harbouring aspirations of representing them, perhaps a fair ask in a democratic set-up.
Why did I not see these changes which were otherwise visible to many others? I was blinded by my own unshakeable belief in conventional wisdom. And Modi magic has surprised many of us, yet again.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)
Published: 27 May 2019,08:42 PM IST