BJP Will Have to Rely on Mukul Roy if They Want to Break TMC Ranks

The induction of former TMC leader Mukul Roy into the BJP has stirred up a political storm in West Bengal.

BJP president Amit Shah welcomes former railways minister Mukul Roy into the party.

(Photo: PTI/Altered by The Quint)

At last, the inevitable happened.

Mukul Roy, one of the founding members of the Trinamool Congress, joined the BJP on Friday, 3 November.

West Bengal politics have begun to heat up with the induction of Mukul into the BJP, as the move comes just months before the panchayat elections in 2018. 

While the CPI(M) and Congress have labelled the development as further proof of a BJP-TMC collusion, TMC leaders are tight-lipped on the issue.

Also Read: Mukul Roy, Once Second in Command in Trinamool, Joins BJP

Only state power minister Shovandeb Chattopadhyay, a minor leader in the TMC hierarchy, commented on the development. He was dismissive of the importance of Mukul Roy joining the BJP. Though nobody offered any reaction in public, top TMC leaders are apprehensive that the BJP would now initiate a multi-pronged attack to put pressure on TMC leaders and workers, in a bid to force them to quit the party and join the BJP.

Will ‘Tainted’ Mukul Be an Asset to BJP?

On the eve of the general elections, Siddhartha Nath Singh, the BJP minder for Bengal, had chanted: "Bhag Mukul Bhag (Run Mukul, run)" to highlight the alleged involvement of TMC leaders in the Saradha and Narada scams. Cut to three years later and BJP president Amit Shah has welcomed Mukul into the party fold.

He was formally introduced to the media by Union minister Ravishankar Prasad, and BJP general secretary, Kailash Vijayvargiya. At Mukul’s induction, BJP leaders mentioned his organisational skills – that will, in all likelihood, prove to be an asset for the party in Bengal.

Mukul was full of bravado as he proclaimed that the BJP would come to power in Bengal in 2021.

BJP leaders admit that they have failed to convert popular support into votes in Bengal, a shortcoming that has been blamed on a lack of experienced organisers at the top. Now, their hopes are pinned on Mukul Roy.

The CBI and the ED are yet to give Mukul clean chits in the Saradha and Narada scams. In this scenario, will the scam-tainted politician prove to be an asset to the BJP? The events at the press meet at the BJP headquarters in Delhi on 3 November seemed to suggest otherwise.

The minute Roy was asked about his alleged involvement in Saradha and Narada scams, he joined other BJP leaders as they hurriedly left the place after offering a one-line reply: “The law will take its own course’’.

It is not without significance that Amit Shah avoided the press meet despite being present at the party headquarters at the time.

It could be that Shah avoided the meet as a way to fend off criticism from the opposition, what with the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assembly elections now just days away.

It is true that a section of the Bengal BJP was against Mukul's induction. Party workers felt it would dent the BJP’s image and paint it as a party that shelters corrupt politicians, But on his recent visit to Bengal, Amit Shah bulldozed them into submission. The BJP chief asked them to “keep the doors open” for the disgruntled elements coming out of the TMC. Still, one could observe a disconcerting tone in BJP state president Dilip Ghosh's reaction.

While welcoming Mukul as an experienced organiser, Ghosh grudgingly observed that they would await the court's verdict. ''If the charges are proved, then party won't interfere in the process of law,'' said Ghosh.

Also Read: Mukul’s Jihad Against Mamata: Will BJP Benefit from Sudden Exit?

TMC Leadership Concerned

Meanwhile, the TMC camp is keeping its fingers crossed. Party chief Mamata Banerjee has, time and again, expressed her anxiety that a number of leaders and workers might leave and join the BJP.

With Mukul’s induction into the BJP, this process may now be expedited. A member of the inner circle of the TMC leadership told this correspondent, on condition of anonymity, that the party is bracing for the offensives that the BJP will launch against them in the coming days.

The member revealed that the TMC leadership is concerned that in the days to come, the BJP will give Mukul more importance, in their attempt to encourage him to lure important TMC workers to the BJP fold.   

The reasons for concern are not ill-founded. The TMC may have retained a seat in the byelection in Contai (south) assembly, but the BJP came second with a 27 percent vote share. Party leaders are convinced that this phenomenal growth of the BJP's popularity in the TMC bastion is a the handiwork of one person – Laxman Seth.

A strongman with sufficient clout, Seth was the undisputed leader of CPI(M) in that area. But after the change of guard in the state, Laxman was expelled from the party after corruption charges were levelled against him. He then joined the BJP. According to TMC circles, Laxman played a significant role in the sudden rise of the BJP's vote share in the area.

Now, there is a chance that a number of experienced but disgruntled TMC workers will join the BJP. The TMC fears that such an exodus may seriously impact the outcome of the election.   

Also Read: Mukul Roy Resigns as TMC MP, Indicates No New Party in the Offing

Mukul Roy and BJP’s Electoral Prospects

There are concerns that the BJP government at the Centre will now nudge the CBI and ED to put pressure on TMC leaders. This was hinted at after Kailash Vijayvargiya said – at a public rally in south Bengal last week – that the names of a number of leaders, including state education minister and TMC spokesperson Partha Chatterjee, would come up in this context.

Significantly, Partha refused to comment. The Panchayat elections will be held in April-May, 2018, followed by the general elections in 2019 and then the all important state assembly elections in 2021.

The TMC fears that funds-flow from the centre to Bengal will dry up in the coming months. Central funding is crucial for the continuation of welfare schemes for Muslims, SC/ST and various other sections of society who have been made beneficiaries by the TMC.

In Bengal, we have pursued a policy to deprive municipalities and panchayats of funds that are run by the opposition parties, thus forcing them to come over to our side. Now, the BJP can do the same with central fund to weaken our party.   

Trinamool Congress leader

Will Mukul and the other TMC men who take a cue from him and join the Bengal BJP change the party’s fortunes in the state? Only time will tell, but Mamata Banerjee is sure to raise her voice against the BJP's communal politics to consolidate her support among Muslim voters. Muslims constitute 28 percent of the population in Bengal.

Mamata’s defiant posturing against the BJP has already enabled her party to make inroads in Malda and Murshidabad, the two Muslim-dominated districts that have, in the past, consistently sided with the Congress.

If the trend continues, then the consolidated Muslim vote bank will definitely help Mamata sail through the coming elections too.

(The writer is former Executive Editor, Ananda Bazar Patrika. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)