Modi’s Moscow Visit: Time-Tested Partnership Yet Rudderless

Its newly found bonhomie with US can help India bargain for more as PM Modi visits Russia, writes Ashok Sajjanhar

Narendra Modi’s two-day meet with Vladimir Putin assumes added significance as this is one of the few major partnerships that has failed to take off since the prime minister assumed office. (Photo: The Quint)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on a two-day visit to Russia on Wednesday for annual summit talks with President Vladimir Putin that is aimed at further expanding the special and privileged strategic ties with a particular focus on nuclear energy, hydrocarbons, defence and trade.

After the talks on Thursday, the two “time-tested” partners are likely to ink a number of pacts in a range of sectors including nuclear energy and defence.

Modi’s two-day meet with Vladimir Putin assumes significance as this is one of the few major partnerships that has failed to take off since the Prime Minister assumed office. India-Russia relations continue to drift in a rudderless fashion although both sides realise that this is a time-tested partnership of paramount significance. Bilateral trade is at an embarrassingly low level of $10 billion.

PM Modi has established a personal rapport with international leaders like Barak Obama, Shinzo Abe, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. Similar chemistry is so far not evident with Putin. Russia is deeply unhappy at India’s expanding relations with the West especially the US. Russia would do well to focus on the positives of our partnership to take it to a significantly elevated level.

After China, Russia Turns Towards India

Steep decline in energy prices, continuing western sanctions and increasing costs of its Syrian operations have seriously hurt the Russian economy. It has been compelled to seek refuge in the economic and political partnership with China. Ironically Russia is the junior partner in this relationship.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang (front L) inspect a guard of honour during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, December 17, 2015. (Photo: Reuters)

India is currently the fastest growing emerging economy. Strong economic and strategic bilateral partnership will be a win-win situation for both and will also contribute to international peace and prosperity. Hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, defence supplies, fertilisers and rough diamonds have been the main components of bilateral partnership so far.

Some big-ticket items which could be announced during the visit include sale of 200 Kamov-226T helicopters by Russia and progressive indigenisation in India. This will be a major component of Russian support to Modi’s ‘’Make in India’’ initiative. Decision is also expected to lease another Russian nuclear powered submarine to India in addition to INS Chakra leased in 2012.

Defence Deals

Significant progress on purchase and local manufacture of Russian advanced S-400 Triumf air defence missile system for a whopping $10 billion can be expected. This should go a long way in mollifying Russia as it will again emerge as the premier defence equipment supplier to India. Inroads by the US in this sector over last few years have piqued Russia. This explains its overtures to Pakistan and China to supply sophisticated defence equipment to them. Russia needs to realise that the more sophisticated defence equipment it exports to India’s neighbours, the less attractive will its technology become for India.

Rosneft President Igor Sechin (R) exchanges documents with Dinesh Kumar Sarraf, Chairman of the Board of Directors, ONGC Videsh Ltd as Russia’s President Vladimir Putin stands nearby during a signing ceremony in St. Petersburg May 24, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Collaboration in nuclear energy is set to receive a big boost during Modi’s visit. Several new nuclear power plants are likely to be announced.

ONGC Videsh has bought a 15 per cent in Russia’s second largest oil field for $1.27 billion. India’s participation in prospecting for oil, gas and other minerals in Russia’s Arctic shelf will go a long way to strengthen mutual trust and bolster bilateral ties.

Reviving Old Charm

• India-Russia relations continue to drift in a rudderless fashion though both sides realise that this is a time-tested partnership
  
• Steep decline in energy prices, continuing western sanctions and its Syrian operations have seriously hurt the Russian economy making it turn towards China followed by India
  
• Some big-ticket announcements during the visit to include sale of 200 Kamov-226T helicopters by Russia and progressive indigenisation in India
  
• Significant progress on various arms deals including S-400 Triumf air defence missile system should go a long way in strengthening ties
  

Bilateral Trade

Performance in the area of bilateral trade over last several years has been uninspiring. Concrete measures are required to achieve the target of $30 billion by 2025 agreed to during EAM’s recent visit to Moscow. Use of national currencies could help in facilitating bilateral trade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) gestures as India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi watches during the inauguration of World Diamond Conference in New Delhi December 11, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Both countries need to expedite finalisation of study launched in June, 2015 on India’s proposed membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. Expeditious progress on the International North-South Transport Corridor as well as upgradation of Chabahar port will be advantageous for all regional economies.

During his visit last week Deputy PM Rogozin mentioned about opportunities for Indian companies in the Russian market due to exit of several European and Turkish manufacturers in food products, textiles and other consumer durables. Indian business needs to be nimble-footed to take advantage of emerging potential.

Why Russia Matters?

Cooperation in outer space including putting up constellations of satellites, earth remote sensing and ground based infrastructure is another promising area for expanding relations.

In addition to above, deliberations on growing scourge of terrorism particularly ISIS and ways to defeat it will be an underlying unifying theme. Situation in Afghanistan and common approach to maximise opportunities in SCO will receive due attention.

There is no other country, notwithstanding India’s expanding relations with the US, with which India shares commonality of strategic and security interest as it does with Russia. The same is equally true for Russia’s relations with India.

India’s expanding ties with the US and Japan are necessary to provide it with greater strategic and political space against rising assertiveness and growing political, military and economic might of China. (Photo: Reuters)

Russia needs to appreciate that India’s growing relations with the US and West are not at its expense. They are necessary to attract more capital and technology for creating jobs and for domestic economic development. Moreover India’s expanding ties with the US and Japan are necessary to provide it with greater strategic and political space against rising assertiveness and growing political, military and economic might of China.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit later this month is a promising opportunity to make India-Russia one of the paramount bilateral relations in coming years.

(Ashok Sajjanhar is a former Indian Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.)