India-Russia Relations Under Modi 3.0 Are Here to Stay and Even Deepen

Modi's Russia visit has taken the world by surprise.

Modi and Putin.

(Photo: X/@narendramodi)

It was a meeting that was closely watched around the world, given the powerful optics.

The recently concluded visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow was not just hugely successful, but as several have pointed out, even historic. And not without good reason. The visit was more about symbolism than substance.

The major takeaways were the agreement to promote Indian investments and cooperation in Russia’s Far East and the Arctic, the implementation of the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, the agreement to facilitate the settlement of civil law disputes of commercial nature, and agreements to promote bilateral trade and investments and the bilateral settlement system using national currencies.

Trade figures have already touched $60 billion on account of Russian crude oil, with the trade balance heavily tilted in Russia’s favour. Both sides have now set a target to reach $100 billion by 2030.

However, the visit itself underscored that India-Russia relations under Modi 3.0 are here to stay and even deepen. While Modi did the politically correct balancing act by first attending the G7 summit in Italy, then skipping the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, and then even allowing Indian participation at the Swiss summit on Ukraine, albeit at a more junior level, his Russia visit has taken the world by surprise. Just look at some of the headlines in the Western media.

As Modi Meets Putin in Moscow, India Seeks to Chart Its Own Course [NYT]

Modi bear-hugs Putin in Moscow, marking deep ties between Russia and India [Washington Post]

Modi's Moscow visit points to enduring friendship with Putin's Russia [NPR]

The visit was symbolic at several levels.

First, it was the prime minister's first visit to Russia in five years and the very first after the Ukraine War broke out in 2022. Secondly, it was Modi’s first bilateral visit after assuming office as the prime minister for a historic third consecutive term. Thirdly, the visit came amidst acute Western pressure on India to distance itself from Russia at a time when the war in Ukraine has escalated and the divide between Russia and the West has further deepened. Finally, the visit itself coincided with the NATO summit in Washington.

If the visit, as is widely believed to be, was to reassure Russia of India's continuing goodwill and partnership with it amidst a perception of a drift in bilateral ties, then it did just that and more.

Why the Visit Was Positive for Both Putin and Modi

Russian President Vladimir Putin pulled out all the stops for Modi. From the red carpet welcome to personally driving Modi around his estate, it was a reception given to very few by Putin (in the words of former Ambassador Anwar Asimov).

The visit was hugely significant for Putin, and a major "diplomatic victory" for him according to Asimov. India is not only Russia's long-time special and privileged strategic partner, its purchases of arms and now crude oil are extremely important for the Russian economy, which is enduring unprecedented sanctions.

India has not adhered to these sanctions, viewing them as unilateral. All these are strategic and long-term engagements. The announcement by Rosatom that plans were afoot for the construction of six more nuclear reactors in India also points in that direction.

The world is currently divided between what some call the "global west", ie, the European Union and North America, and the "global east" headed by Russia and China. And then there is India. After his reelection in March this year, Putin first visited China, then Uzbekistan, and then North Korea and Vietnam. And here comes Modi, the elected leader of the world's largest democracy, an emerging economy, and a leader of the global South equally courted by the West.

Modi called Putin his "dear friend" and talked about how "Every Indian considers Russia to be India 's friend in good and bad times...the commitment of our relationship has been tested multiple times, and it has emerged strong each time..."

For the Indian prime minister, it was a victory both domestically and internationally.

Not only has India stood to gain exponentially from heavily discounted Russian crude, but in an election year, it assumed greater salience. Russia's willingness to transfer defence technology is also crucial for the prime minister's "Atmanirbhar Bharat" vision.

In a coalition government this time around, he proved to the Opposition — Congress leader Jairam Ramesh had specifically quizzed Modi on why ties with Russia seemed to be cooling off — that Modi 3.0 had not veered India off its much-vaunted multi-aligned path of strategic autonomy. Extracting a promise from the Russians for the early discharge of Indians duped into fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine also caters to his domestic constituency.

India the Peacemaker and a Message to China

Simultaneously, Modi has also talked about resolving the Ukraine conflict through diplomacy and negotiations, saying no solution was to be "found on the battlefield", reiterating India's position on the conflict, something that positions India as a potential peacemaker or at least a conduit between Russia and the West.

But perhaps the visit was another subtle message? For instance, the Western media is rife with criticism of Modi and his approach to issues like minorities, religious tolerance, and press freedom, both before and after the elections. Russia's Sputnik India service and RT (Russia Today) India, on the other hand, have always portrayed Modi in a flattering light.

While Khalistani activists are allowed a free run in places like Canada, US, and Britain, it will be difficult to think of something similar occurring on Russian territory. Instead, Indian viewers were treated to footage of Putin fetting Modi on his election victory, his dedication to the Indian people, and the confidence that Indians repose in him.

Apart from the West, through Modi's visit, both India and Russia have also sent a message to China. For whatever it was worth, Russia's Sputnik Chinese language service kept a running account of the visit, faithfully broadcasting the tea meet and Putin driving Modi around, and the latter bestowing on the Russian the Order of St Andrew - Russia's highest civilian order.

Both sides may also be cooking up some kind of meeting between Modi and Xi in Kazan later this year - if Modi does attend the BRICS summit - to break the impasse.

All in all, the visit was one that was loaded with symbolism. And the bottom line? Under Modi 3.0, India-Russian ties are here to stay.

(Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. She tweets @aditijan. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)