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As Narendra Modi begins campaigning on 1 May, in Karnataka, the BJP’s hopes are pinned on his charisma in a tough contest which has no clear winner yet.
If the Congress manages to retain the state (against historical trend), it will provide a big fillip to its cadre ahead of elections in three states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Modi enjoys high popularity ratings in Karnataka. In Lok Sabha 2014 elections, 42 percent people surveyed in the state by CSDS stated that they would not have voted for the BJP if Modi had not been the PM candidate.
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The all India figure was 27 percent. At least 9 out of 10 Indians in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Telangana in the south, and Maharashtra, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh in the west, hold a favorable view of the prime minister as per Pew Survey. Modi’s approval rating at 54 percent is higher than Siddaramaiah’s rating of 51 percent, though the CM is ahead of Yeddyurappa in all surveys.
However, there is a big issue – the BJP is in contention in only about 150-odd seats. The other 80 odd seats are primarily INC vs JD(S) contests. The party has finished either as the winner or as a runner up in 146 seats on an average in the last three elections. Even in 2008, when it won, it was in contention only in 168 seats.
This means that the BJP requires a very high strike rate of 77 percent (113/146) to win these elections. In 2008, it managed a 67 percent strike rate (110/168), but at that time there was significant sympathy in favour of Yeddyurappa who was ditched by Kumaraswamy.
This time there is no palpable wave in favour of any party. However, a word of caution, no wave in favour of the BJP was visible on the ground even in UP and we all know the result.
In my opinion, Modi’s focus will be on three sets of voters as less than two weeks remain for the elections.
The BJP appeared all set to win around 3 months ago, riding on the wave of anti-incumbency. However, events in recent months have left things up in the air. Yeddyurappa has health issues, is old and well past his prime. The party taking back the Reddy brothers has diluted Modi’s 10 percent commission government charge on Siddaramaiah.
His leadership ratings have also witnessed a decline, while Rahul Gandhi is catching up, although the gap is quite huge at 30 percent.
Though surveys predict a hung assembly, don’t be surprised if people give a clear verdict. A complex interplay of various factors like seat level dynamics, caste alliances, turnout, booth management on voting day, rebel candidates, leadership ratings and Modi mania will decide who ultimately wins. Game abhi baaki hai!
(Amitabh Tiwari is a corporate and investment banker turned political commentator, strategist and consultant. He can be reached @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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Published: 01 May 2018,04:30 PM IST