Maratha Reservation Agitation: Political Calculations of BJP, NCP, and Shiv Sena

While all parties want reservation for Marathas, they don't want to antagonise the OBCs in the state.

Activists of Maratha Kranti Morcha and Sakal Maratha Samaj during a protest march in Karad on 30 October.

(Photo: PTI)

The volatile issue of the Maratha reservations has turned the tables on the established political players and their politics.

This holds especially true for a section of those in power including Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who is already facing proceedings under the anti-defection law, as the Supreme Court has directed the state Assembly speaker to decide the fate of 16 MLAs by 31 December.

Manoj Jarange Patil from the backward Marathwada region has emerged as an unlikely hero for the four crore-strong community, the youth of which have become restive for reservations in jobs and education.

The Meteoric Rise of Manoj Jarange Patil

No party in the state can afford to say a word against the Marathas who constitute some 32 to 34 percent of the population in the state, spread far and wide.

While all parties want reservations for Marathas, they do not want to antagonise the OBCs in the state, who are sizable in number but have failed to project a united face.

Marathas might be boasting of being a marshal community but especially the ‘have nots’ among them want the community to be included among the backward. However, this is easier said than done.

The 41-year-old Patil has brought the powerful state government to its knees. Several MPs and MLAs are unable to go to their homes in the countryside, while several villages have boards barring the entry of politicians. Two MPs have resigned.

Now, Patil has suspended his fast for two months to enable the state government to take steps to kick-start the process of issuing Kunbi caste certificates to the Marathas, wherever possible, so that they could enjoy the fruits of reservation as OBCs.

But to believe that completion of the process would wither away the Maratha reservation issue is, to say the least, foolhardy. The beleaguered CM has bought peace, for two months.

Political Calculations Regarding Marathas and OBCs

The silence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah on the issue speaks volumes. A poll setback in Maharashtra could upset their power calculations in the general election to be held in the next five months.

While no one would say it publicly, the BJP, which has assiduously cultivated the OBCs in the state, would ill afford the Marathas to have the greater say.

Marathas have been traditionally with the Congress and since the parting of ways by Sharad Pawar, they have been with the NCP too, which is largely seen as a Maratha party.

They form a dominant community who matter in every Assembly as well as every Lok Sabha constituency. Patils, a surname mostly found among the Marathas, have been the largest number among the MLAs, whatever might be the Assembly.

The majority of the chief ministers have been Marathas and non-Marathas, and have always had to keep the Marathas in good humour since the formation of the state. Hardly any other community in any other state has enjoyed so much political power. While Shinde is making determined efforts, there have been attempts at one-upmanship.

A section of the BJP feels that if Shinde succeeds in the task, the chief minister who broke away from the Sena some 16 months back, would become a leader independent of the BJP.

Petty politics is still on. Former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, the boss-turned-foe of Shinde, was not invited to the all-party meet held on 1 November. Thackeray, on his part, has sought to fish in troubled waters by demanding a special session of Parliament on the reservation issue. The BJP will ill afford the revival of demands for quota for other communities in other states. A section of the Opposition has sought a special session of the state legislature.

The tragedy of the BJP is that Ajit Pawar, despite being the tallest Maratha leader in its alliance, has turned out to be insignificant given the agitation. Pawar was made the deputy CM by the BJP earlier this year to make inroads into the Marathas and the sugar-rich Western Maharashtra.

Maharashtra Has Become an Unpredictable State

Strangely, Maharashtra has been caught in the deadlines of Jarange Patil on the one hand, and the utter helplessness of the political class on the other, especially those in power who insist that the processes needed to be given time for handing out a foolproof reservation.

The BJP lacks a strong Maratha leader and this has led to bringing in Shinde as CM over a year back and Ajit Pawar as deputy CM recently. Both of these leaders are Marathas, and Pawar hails from the sugar-rich Western Maharashtra which holds the key to power in the crucial state.

There are a sizable section of OBCs in the state and they might not be saying much at the moment, but they do not like attempts by the Marathas to eat into their quota cake. They are biding their time.

Experts believe that Maharashtra has further dipped into an ‘impossible crisis’ that the political class has created over the past two decades. This time, more ominously, there are dark clouds of a Maratha-OBC confrontation.

Sometime back, the Supreme Court ruled against the Maharashtra law that sought to give quota to Marathas based on their social and economic status. A curative petition has been filed.

A section of Marathas believe that OBC-isation of the community is the best bet. What is a worrying sign is that the patience of the agitators is wearing thin as the promise of reservations being given for the past two decades has just remained a dangling carrot.

Maharashtra, which has been passing through a period of political instability, split, and desertions since 2019, along with the pandemic, and now drought, has become an unpredictable state for political masters.

As the state grapples with the issue, the political class will face an uphill battle to find a peaceful and sustainable resolution.

(Sunil Gatade is a former Associate Editor of the Press Trust of India. Venkatesh Kesari is an independent journalist. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)