India-Malaysia Ties: Can Anwar Ibrahim's Foreign Policy Address Security Issues?

Hopes are pinned on New PM to solve the prolonged economic crisis and balance foreign policy in the same breath

Hopes are pinned on the New PM to solve the country's economic crisis and balance foreign policy in the same breath

Image: Namita Chauhan/The Quint

Anwar Ibrahim was finally appointed the Prime Minister of Malaysia in November 2022 after three decades of trial run. Even here, it was a narrow run with the King Al Sultan Abdullah deciding on him because his rival Muhyiddin Yasin refused to consider the possibility of a unity government while Anwar was agreeable.

He has now formed that government, roping in various parties and has a two-thirds majority in the Parliament which will now convene on 19 December when the government will face a vote of confidence.

The last five years have been turbulent ones in Malaysia with rising inflation and the global turmoil adding to its political problems. The country has seen five prime ministers since Najib Razak was forced out in 2018. Malaysian politics entered a particularly turbulent phase when Muhyiddin became prime minister without a parliamentary vote in March 2020.

• Anwar Ibrahim was finally appointed the Prime Minister of Malaysia in November 2022 after three decades of trial run.

• Rising inflation and global turmoil added to Malaysia's political problems.

• From the outset, Anwar positioned his politics along the lines first worked out by the UNMO, stressing on an all-Malaysia national identity.

• His priority will be to show global investors that Malaysia remains a going concern since the prolonged political crisis has taken its toll on the economy.

• In terms of foreign affairs, Anwar who has the reputation of being a globalist, will have to steer between China and the United States

Anwar’s Rise in Malaysian Politics

Malaysia is a federation of 13 states and three federal territories with a multi-racial population of nearly 70 percent mainly Muslim Malays, 22.8 percent ethnic Chinese and 6.6 percent ethnic Indians. From the outset, its politics have been polarised over race, religion and reform which have shaped it in the first place. Its Malay majority has enjoyed a constitutionally protected special status while its minorities treated as second-class citizens.

Anwar’s turbulent history in Malaysian politics is well known. Beginning his political career as a student leader, he became the Finance Minister and then the Deputy Prime Minister of the country in the 1990s and was clearly the heir apparent of the Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

Both were then in the United National Malay Organisation (UNMO) and Anwar gained great prestige by steering Malaysia in the turbulent years of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. But they fell out and Anwar was jailed for corruption and sodomy and went through a period of ups and downs that ended when he was formally given a royal pardon in 2018.

In the 19 November general elections, Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH)  coalition won 82 seats out of 222, a little less than 112 needed for a majority. In this election, Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition won 73 and Ismail Sabri Yaakob of the Barisan Nasional (UMNO) got 30, other parties got smaller numbers. Mahathir Mohamad, the former Prime Minister whose actions prevented Anwar from becoming prime minister twice, failed to win his own seat.

The election was the first in which 18-20 year olds were eligible to vote after a constitutional amendment that reduced the voting age from 21 to 18. In the coming days scholars are likely to analyse the consequences of this.

Malaysia & Political Islam

The PN was not particularly popular with the minority groups of the country since its constituents like the (Parti Islam se Malaysia) PAS, which is strong in peninsular Malaysia’s northern and eastern region, are hardline Islamist. But the voting, especially in the rural areas was along nationalist and religious lines with PN’s campaign stressing how Malay Muslims would lose out if the PH came to power. Sure enough, the appeal worked and the PAS sometimes called the Malaysian Taliban, won 49 of the 73 seats of the PN coalition.

From the outset, Anwar has positioned his politics along the lines first worked out by the UNMO which is to stress an all-Malaysia national identity. So, as the leader of the PH coalition, he sought to reach out to the entire cross-section of the population by pledging good governance.

The big question that confronts Malaysia now is the strength of political Islam in the country. It has been a mainstay of Malay politics since the country gained independence from Britain in 1957, though the UMNO or the Barisan Nasional have tended to focus on Malay nationalism as such.

But now with the rise of PAS, things have changed. The party is strong in peninsular Malaysia and also has a presence in Sarawak and Sabah. Its performance this time has been its best ever and could well presage a shift in Malaysian politics.

The PAS wants Malaysia to be designated an Islamic state and it wants to ban alcohol, music concerts and gambling. According to its leader Abdul Hadi Awang, non-Muslims would have secondary role in the government if the party took leadership position.

Can Anwar Tackle Prolonged Economic Crisis?

Anwar Ibrahim’s biggest challenge is to keep his coalition running smoothly. Many of the parties he has now roped in fought bitterly with each other in the election and keeping peace will be his primary concern.

His coalition comprises of his multi-racial PH along with the UMNO which was its erstwhile rival, and a number of parties from Sarawak and Sabah. Anwar will also have to deal with ongoing corruption cases involving politicians who are now part of his government such as the UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Malaysia United Democratic Alliance president Syed Saddiq and former Democratic Action Party Secretary general Lim Guan Eng.

His second priority will be to show global investors that Malaysia remains a going concern since the prolonged political crisis has taken its toll on the economy. Anwar’s experience as the finance minister who helped pull the country out of the 1997 Asian financial crisis will stand him in good stead.

Malaysia’s economy is expected to slow down to 4-5 per cent in 2023, as compared to 7 percent till now and the central bank remains under pressure to raise interest rates to check inflation.

There is little doubt that from the point of view of good governance, this is the time to focus on the economy and to provide an effective social safety net for the vulnerable people in the country. There it has the support of the UMNO which has proposed a generous agenda to help the poor in its election campaign.

In terms of foreign affairs, Anwar who has the reputation of being a globalist, will have to steer between China and the United States. Anwar has been seen as being friendly to the west, but he is likely to pursue a policy of balancing ties between China and the US and will rope in the EU, India, and the rest of ASEAN to maintain a balance.

How Will Malaysia’s Foreign Policy Impact India?

Anwar knows that to deliver his promises, he needs to have the powerful Malaysian civil service, 1.2 million strong, by his side. So late last month, he convened a meeting of the heads of various departments where he appealed to them for support. “There is no way I can succeed if the backbone of the civil service is not with me,” he said.

Malaysia is India’s neighbor with a significant ethnic Indian origin population. There are some 250,000 non-resident Indians living there. Given its location along the sea lanes into the Straits of Malacca, it figures large in our security calculus in relation to the Indo-Pacific.

We have usually enjoyed excellent ties. Just recently we commenced a two-week joint military exercise called “Harimau Shakti” at Kluang, Malaysia. This is an annual event that has been taking place since 2012. This is part of New Delhi’s outreach to the ASEAN that dates back to the 1990s. But we are still away from developing the full potential of our relations.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)