Mahagathbandhan Rally: How Arch Rivals United Against One ‘Enemy’

Rasheed Kidwai decodes the magic behind the mahagathbandhan, and what the NDA needs to do to tackle it.

DMK leader M.K. Stalin, centre, ex Indian finance minister Yashwant Sinha, left, BJP lawmaker Shatrughan Sinha, right, in Kolkata on Saturday,  19 Jan. Image used for representational purposes.

(Photo: AP / Altered by The Quint)

The success of the united Opposition’s rally in Kolkata on 19 January afternoon has reinstated a sense of hope and belief in the mahagathbandhan’s strength, to checkmate the Narendra Modi-led NDA regime.

Now, Prime Minister Modi needs something more than wordplay and mere rhetoric to counter the coming together of a “rainbow” coalition.

Speaking to a crowd in Silvassa, Dadar Nagar Haveli, Modi nade a jibe at the proposed 'mahagathbandhan’, terming it as being not just against him, but against the entire nation.

This strategy may not suffice. Prime Minister Modi’s reliance on “main hoon na” and personal charisma is not something that can gloss over the double anti-incumbency factor in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and 18 other BJP-ruled states.

Modi-led NDA Needs to Establish Ties With Likes of Mayawati

The Indian elections are essentially fought in the states, mostly on local issues, where resentment against sitting MPs and MLAs has the potential to upset many other calculations. Moreover, counting heavily on middle-class antipathy for a chaotic coalition is not wise, if one takes into account the NDA regime’s utter failure to create more jobs, accelerate economic growth or usher in “ache din”.

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Modi and the BJP, thus, need to put in place a strategy to keep some line of communication with the likes of Mayawati, Ajit Singh, Sharad Pawar and others who can help him stitch an alternative ‘gathbandan’.

In this context, Modi and the ruling dispensation need to utilise the services of seasoned campaigners like Nitin Gadkari and Rajnath Singh a lot more productively, rather than dubbing them as potential rivals. The NDA needs a hands-on convenor in the mould of a Pramod Mahajan, Sharad Yadav or George Fernandes to prevent arch-rivals like the National Conference-PDP, DMK-ADMK, Left-Trinamul from becoming allies.

BJP Should Know, Pre-Poll Sops Usually Boomerang

As a writer and talking head, I have constantly and consistently been saying that, the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be fought in a contrasting style. The Indian voter is highly volatile, as the poll outcome of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have shown.  There is no fixed formula like Manmohan Desai’s 1980s masala films to ensure success. One parameter that has been consistent is that of the voter’s sense of rejection and disillusionment.

Pre-poll sops like caste-based reservations and populist measures, have a tendency to boomerang.

There are too many examples to cite – the UPA’s Land Acquisition Bill, Siddaramaiah’s Lingayat religion, Prithviraj Chavan’s Maratha reservation, Bhoopendra Singh Hooda’s Jat quota etc were all dubbed as game-changers.  But in the final analysis of electoral success, they disappeared without a trace.

The Mahagathbandhan Story, Thus Far

It may sound paradoxical, but the Opposition’s strategy is rife with contradiction, yet high on the probability of success. Here are some basics to keep in mind:

1. The grand alliance, as and when it comes through, will not centre around a personality
2. It will not be a national level accord but based on seat sharing, adjustment, and tacit understanding spread across 29 states
3. There will be a perpetual difference of opinion and disquiet among top protagonists ranging from Rahul Gandhi to Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Sitaram Yechury, to the likes of M K Stalin, Chandrababu Naidu and the rest
4. Before and during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, concerted efforts will be made to undermine prospective allies through poaching, pronouncements, machinations and the presence of candidates
5. The real shape and success of the mahagathbandan will emerge minutes after the parliamentary poll results of 2019, if Modi-Amit Shah’s BJP gets restricted to less than 200 seats, and the combined NDA fails to cross the 250 mark
6. The mahagathbandan’s Uttar Pradesh story will be full of contradictions

Sonia Gandhi, An Asset

The Opposition has Sonia Gandhi as an asset. She has come a long way from the ‘foreign bahu’ tag and has the ability to overrule her son Rahul, reach out to every non-NDA constituent and act swiftly. She was quick to learn that in the age of coalition politics, that alliances were the way forward.

Many years ago, Sonia and Mulayam Singh Yadav had attended a dinner at Somnath Chatterjee's residence. Sonia was tucking into a hilsa when Mulayam Singh Yadav took a potshot, saying, “Madam, be careful. Hilsa hai. Kanta chubh jayen ge (the fish bone may hurt you).” Sonia's retort was quick. “Main kanton se joojhna janti hoon (I know how to deal with thorns),” she had said.

This explains her ties with the DMK, a party which some senior Congress leaders had, in 1997, accused of being soft on the LTTE, the Sri Lankan militant outfit to whose bomb Rajiv Gandhi fell.

However, from 2004-2014, she displayed a refreshing approach towards allies, even with those like the NCP with which it has had an ego clash, came around. Her handling of allies and alliance leaders such Pawar, Mayawati, Karunanidhi and others was even better than an Atal Bihari Vajpayee or P V Narasimha Rao.

The Sonia stamp was visible in Kolkata too, where the Congress representative Mallikarjun Kharge read out a message from Sonia Gandhi, highlighting the “crisis” looming over the country, with farmers and fishermen living under immense strain.

The Mamata Factor

In the Congress scheme of things, Mamata scores high over Mayawati in the event of the grand old party not crossing “half of half” in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but getting an opportunity to put in place an alternative government. The Congress under Rahul Gandhi would not stake a claim on the Office of the Prime Minister. It may prop up Mamata Banerjee instead.

Mamata left the Congress in 1997 to form the All India Trinamul Congress, promising to end the CPM’s rule, adopting the slogan, ‘Now’s the time’, a slogan that was illusory for years, but finally manifested in 2011.

She fell out with the Congress because of P V Narasimha Rao, Sitaram Kesri and Sonia Gandhi’s inability to give her a ‘free hand’ to take on the Left in Bengal.

These Congress leaders made a tactical error in relying more on Pranab Mukherjee than Mamata when it came to making strategic decisions about Bengal politics. 

In fact, the entire Mamata Banerjee story during the 1990s, including her exit from the Congress, had Pranab Mukherjee’s stamp all over it.

Pranab Mukherjee, who had little or no influence at the ground level in Bengal, propped up characters like Soumen Mitra to drive Mamata out of the Congress. Pranab Mukherjee and Mamata Banerjee may have subsequently bought peace, but history and the subsequent events stand as testimony to the Congress’s error in not recognising and acknowledging Mamata’s leadership.

The Mamata-Sonia Rosy Picture

Interestingly, Mamata continues to share close ties with Sonia Gandhi. Sonia had played no effective role in Mamata’s 2011 historic victory, but Mamata was quick to pay a visit to 10 Janpath, days after her win. The bond between the two goes far deeper than political interests demand. Those who saw Sonia eagerly embracing Mamata on 17 May 2011 and during H D Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in in Karnataka, were reminded of a similar one 12 years ago, on 14 October 1999.

Moments after Mamata had been sworn in as an NDA minister, in the spur of the moment, she strode straight towards Sonia, seated in the front row in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

The two of them hugged before the startled eyes of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, LK Advani and others. Then Sonia did her own impromptu act: “Congratulations,” she said, “but will you come back?”

Doubtless, both realised the invite was just an emotional gesture, and a moist-eyed Mamata gently turned away, and Sonia looked like she wasn’t expecting a response either.

(Rasheed Kidwai is an Indian writer and journalist. He is the author of the book ‘Sonia, A Biography’, He also wrote a book based on the Congress party headquarters ‘24, Akbar Road’. He is a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, and tweets at @rasheedkidwai. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)