Low Turnout in Phase 2 Makes Parties Anxious: Which Seats Saw a Decline?

The turnout as per provisional numbers is 65.4 percent against 70.1 percent in 2019 (-4.7 percentage points).

The lowest turnouts (ranging from 49 percent to 56 percent) were recorded in Mathura, Rewa, Ghaziabad, Bhagalpur, Bangalore South, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bangalore Central, Bangalore North, Banka and Bulandshahr.

(Photo: X/@ECISVEEP)

The voting percentage for 88 seats in phase two of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has declined compared to 2019, a consecutive decline after phase one. This happened despite the Election Commission (EC) undertaking significant measures to improve the turnout after phase one and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holding a meeting to take stock of the situation.

The statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on inheritance tax and wealth redistribution, allegations of fanning communal hatred by the Congress, and notices by the ECI, all heated up the poll campaign of an otherwise thanda election, but the polling percentage did not improve. 

The turnout in phase two as per provisional numbers is 65.4 percent against 70.1 percent in 2019. Turnout has declined across all the 13 states and union territories except Chhattisgarh. 

Of the 88 seats, turnout has declined in 76 seats, remained the same in three, and improved in nine seats. Turnout has decreased in 52 seats held by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), 23 by the INDIA bloc and one seat held by the others in 2019. 

The lowest turnouts (ranging from 49 percent to 56 percent) were recorded in Mathura, Rewa, Ghaziabad, Bhagalpur, Bangalore South, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bangalore Central, Bangalore North, Banka and Bulandshahr.

The biggest drop in turnout (ranging from 11 percent to 14 percent) was recorded in Pathanamthitta, Mathura, Khajuraho, Rewa, and Ernakulam.

A lot has been written about the reasons for a lower turnout and what could be the impact on electoral outcomes. There is no clear correlation between turnout and electoral outcomes. Scorching heat, lack of enthusiasm amongst both opposition and ruling party voters, lack of Josh amongst youth/first-time voters, and urban apathy could be some of the reasons for this decline.

Pathanamthitta recorded a high turnout of 74.3 percent in 2019, this has dropped to 60.9 percent in 2024 despite a high-profile three-cornered contest where Anil Antony, son of former Kerala CM A K Antony, switched from the Congress to the BJP to become its candidate. The fact that CPM/CPI are friends with the Congress in the rest of India and foes in the state seems to have confused voters of both sides along with the migration of people.

Mathura, which recorded a turnout of 61.1 percent in 2019, has dropped to 49.3 percent in 2024 despite Bollywood actress Hema Malini’s candidature. There were reports of people wishing for a change of candidate from the BJP. Jats who constitute roughly 35 percent of the constituency’s voting population do not seem to be coming out in large numbers to back the BJP despite alliance with the RLD. A section of Jats does not seem to support Jayant Chaudhary’s decision to hop from INDIA to the NDA.

Khajuraho, which recorded a turnout of 68.3 percent in 2019, has dropped to 56.9 percent in 2024 despite State BJP President V.D. Sharma contesting from here. The Congress had given the SP the ticket in an alliance whose candidate’s nomination was cancelled by ECI. Left with no candidate, the Congress and the SP provided support to the AIFB candidate. The spirits of the INDIA bloc supporters may have been dampened leading to a decline.

Rewa, which recorded a turnout of 60.4 percent in 2019, has dropped to 49.4 percent in 2024, women turnout declined by more than 10 percent which remains a mystery. Two-term MP has been repeated by the BJP which may have caused some disillusionment amongst the cadre as many MPs were replaced in Madhya Pradesh but not in Rewa. Also, the Congress candidate, a lady, was earlier a BJP MLA thus causing confusion among cadres of both parties. Temperature was also very high at 42 degrees.

Ernakulam, which recorded a turnout of 77.6 percent in 2019, has dropped to 66.9 percent in 2024, which has been attributed to scorching heat, delays with EVMs, migration of youth, and a decline in the voting percentage of minorities as per reports.

Banka in Bihar registered just a 53.9 percent voter turnout, probably because of a lack of faith in the political process by some section of voters who are disillusioned by constant flip-flops of the JDU from the NDA to Mahagathbandhan and vice versa.

The urban constituencies of Bangalore - North, Central, South - lived up to their reputation recording a low turnout in the 50s, 15 percent lower than the state average of around 68 percent. Only Bengaluru Rural which is witnessing a keen contest between DK Suresh of INC and Dr C N Manjunath, son-in-law of former PM HD Deve Gowda, contesting on a BJP ticket, saw a high turnout.

A clear case of urban apathy, voters in the city which is facing drinking water shortages may have been appalled by the lack of political will and capability of political parties/leaders to solve basic civic issues. The long weekend also contributed to the low turnout.

Other urban centres like Ghaziabad (49.7 percent), and Gautam Buddha Nagar (53.2 percent) (Noida) also featured in the top 10 seats which recorded the lowest turnout. This is in continuation of the very low turnout witnessed in Chennai in phase one. Urban Indian voters seem to not care to participate in the electoral process, or are fed up with the system’s inability to solve civic issues, or are disillusioned with the low level of public participation in governance.

In many centres, tents covering the polling booths to provide relief to people from scorching heat and adequate drinking water arrangements were not provided as per visuals on TV, despite ECI mentioning the same.

ECI, political parties, and civil society need to take immediate urgent steps to ensure higher participation in the balance phases of the world's biggest elections.

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)