If Rahul Gandhi 'Leaves' Wayanad, Congress in Kerala Will Have a Lot to Handle

The Election Commission (EC) of India on Thursday, 23 November, issued a show-cause notice to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his "panauti", "pickpocket" remarks allegedly aimed at Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

(Photo: PTI)

Barely an hour before the nomination deadline, Indian National Congress (INC) leader Rahul Gandhi submitted his papers to contest from Rae Bareli, in addition to his candidacy in Wayanad, Kerala, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This strategic move by the Congress addresses the criticism from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which had mocked Rahul for allegedly avoiding the Hindi heartland.

While there's considerable debate over why Rahul chose Rae Bareli over Amethi in northern India, the Congress faction in Kerala faces its own challenges

They must reassure their voters in Wayanad, find a new candidate for Wayanad if Rahul wins in Rae Bareli, pacify the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) who have been backing Rahul in Wayanad wholeheartedly and contend with the media scrutiny that will keep the issue in the spotlight.

In the 2019 Indian general elections, the Indian National Congress fielded T Siddique, a state Congress leader, for the Wayanad parliamentary constituency. However, when the national leadership of Congress declared Rahul as the candidate in Wayanad, alongside Amethi, Siddique withdrew his candidacy. When the votes were counted, Rahul won with a 4.31 lakh majority, defeating Communist Party of India (CPI) candidate PP Suneer. The voting percentage in Wayanad at that time was a little over 80.31 percent, whereas the all-India average was just 73.25 percent.

Rahul Has Been Actively Involved in Wayanad

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and its leader Narendra Modi, sought a second term as Prime Minister, the sentiment on the ground was that Congress would come to power and Rahul would lead India.

This sentiment deeply influenced voters, resulting in the Left Front securing only one seat out of the 20 parliamentary seats in Kerala. Keralite voters gifted 19 seats to Congress and its allies to strengthen Rahul's position. In short, through Rahul's victory, Keralites were hoping to see an Indian Prime Minister from Kerala at that time.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), an ally in the Congress-led front, played a vital role in securing a victory for Rahul in Wayanad, a Muslim-dominated parliamentary constituency, at that time.

Now, as the Congress aims for Rahul to win Rae Bareli as well, it presents numerous challenges for the party in Kerala, despite the welcoming stance of IUML leadership. Surprising Congress leaders, IUML leader PK Kunhalikutty has stated that Rahul's decision to contest from Rae Bareli would bolster the prospects of the INDIA front. This statement from Kunhalikutty can bring relief to Congress in Kerala, suggesting that IUML may not push for Wayanad as its third parliamentary seat if Rahul wins Rae Bareli and vacates Wayanad.

However, Rahul leaving Wayanad would pose a challenge for the Congress leadership in Kerala to address the concerns of Wayanad voters. Unlike in Amethi, Rahul was actively involved in Wayanad, establishing a strong bond with the voters. Whether addressing human-animal conflicts or other issues, Rahul was present in Wayanad, which has fostered a sentiment among Wayanad voters that Rahul is truly one of their own. This strong bond will place the Congress in Kerala in a difficult position to explain why Rahul had to vacate Wayanad if he wins Rae Bareli.

Priyanka Gandhi's Role in Wayanad

Now, if Rahul wins Rae Bareli and leaves Wayanad, it could create additional trouble for Congress in Kerala. Bickering within the Congress in Kerala will begin. Wayanad, being a prime seat vacated by Rahul, would likely see several Congress leaders vying to secure it. The Congress in Kerala is known for its factionalism, despite being out of power for the last eight years in the state and ten years at the centre. Various factions within the party would emerge with new claims and formulas to settle scores.

However, Congress insiders suggest that trouble could be avoided if Priyanka Gandhi were to contest the by-election in Wayanad. Priyanka, who has been at the forefront of Congress election campaigns across India, is rumoured as a perfect candidate for Wayanad. With the full-hearted support of IUML, her candidacy could pave the way for a glorious victory. According to Congress insiders, Priyanka's candidacy in Wayanad could also bolster the party's chances of returning to power in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections.

Interestingly, the Congress might be able to convince Wayanad voters why Rahul vacated Wayanad, maintain solidarity with IUML, and mitigate factionalism through Priyanka's candidacy. However, it could face challenges in managing the Left parties and the narrations set in by the media in Kerala. Despite being part of the INDIA front nationally, the Left parties are at odds with the Congress in Kerala. Rahul was ridiculed by the Kerala Left leaders for contesting from Wayanad, despite being in the same bloc outside Kerala's borders.

During the campaign, when Rahul expressed puzzlement over why Kerala Chief Minister and Communist Party of India-Marxist leader Pinarayi Vijayan was attacking him around the clock instead of focusing on criticizing the BJP, Pinarayi responded by invoking late Indira Gandhi in his reply speech. Every second-tier Left leader in Kerala was irked by Rahul's candidacy in Wayanad, especially since he was contesting against Annie Raja, the CPI leader.

On Friday, while speaking to the media, Annie stated that Rahul had done injustice to Wayanad voters. However, the CPI State General Secretary informed the media that the party would support Rahul in Rae Bareli.

The Congress in Kerala might overcome various challenges related to Rahul's contest between Wayanad and Rae Bareli, but it could face obstacles due to the narratives established by the media in Kerala. On Friday, all the leading news channels in Kerala were targeting Rahul, their ammunition charged by Modi's speech. During a public meeting, Modi had stated that the Congress "prince" (Rahul Gandhi) had fled from Wayanad, wouldn't contest in Amethi, and was wandering somewhere in Rae Bareli. Interestingly, most of the Kerala media had prime-time debate titles posing the question, "Has Rahul Run Away?"

Many TV debaters echoed Modi's statement, questioning why Rahul chose Rae Bareli over Amethi. Some anchors even expressed a preference for Rahul to become a martyr in Amethi rather than winning in Rae Bareli. These narratives are likely to severely impact the Congress in Kerala. Until 4 June, and possibly even after that, the Congress leaders in Kerala are bound to encounter these narrations.

(Rejimon Kuttappan is an independent journalist and author of Undocumented [Penguin 2021]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses, nor is responsible for them.)