Poonch: As J&K Faces Unabated Terror Attacks, Will PM Modi Act on His Words?

Days before, Narendra Modi said that India would respond appropriately if terrorists attempted to disrupt peace.

The attack resulted in the injuries to five IAF personnel of which one –Corporal Vikky Pahade, a resident of Madhya Pradesh – has succumbed to injuries

Photo: (Namita Chauhan/ The Quint)

The brutal attack on an Indian Air Force (IAF) personnel on 4 May (Saturday) at the Shahsitar area of Surankote in Poonch reveals how the militant groups in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) are mimicking the modus operandi of Left Wing Extremists (LWEs), capitalising on their isolation from the people, and the thick tree cover of the forests in which they roam, to remain off the radar while plotting attacks against security forces. 

Sources in the security establishment told The Quint that had it not been for the retaliatory fire that the IAF men resorted to, the damage could have been on the higher side.

“The forces recovered more than 300 bullet casings from the site. That reveals the intensity of the firing from the side of terrorists,” an official source added. 

Poonch Terror: A Timeline

Last week's attack took place at around 6:15 pm when three IAF vehicles were returning from the Taranwali area of Surankote to the Air Force base in Shahsitar. The militants are believed to have swooped down from the higher spot at which they had been prowling, and fired indiscriminately. 

The attack resulted in the injuries to five IAF personnel of which one –Corporal Vikky Pahade, a resident of Madhya Pradesh – has succumbed to injuries. Reports added that it had just been a fortnight since Pahade returned from a leave he had taken for his sister's wedding.

As of 7 May, security forces were still leading the massive search operations into the forests of Shahsitar, Gursai, Sinai, and Sheendara Top in Poonch. The Additional Director General of Police of Jammu Anand Jain told the press that helicopters have been deployed in the area to conduct the aerial surveillance. 

Police said that they have also detained a number of suspects in the aftermath of the attack, and sketches of the two militants, both of whom are believed to be of Pakistani origin, have been released. The security forces have announced a cash reward of Rs 20 lakh for any information which will help them nab the attackers.

The Volatile Situation in Pir Panjal

Saturday’s gun battle is also in many ways a reminder that the situation in Pir Panjal may be more sensitive than is currently acknowledged. The region comprising the districts of Poonch and Rajouri is located in proximity to the Line of Control with Pakistan. 

The districts are spread across a mountainous terrain with thick forest cover that makes it easier for the militants not just to cross the porous border but also to stalk the incoming security personnel while hiding away in the woods and then launch ambushes. 

Last year, The Quint reported how Pir Panjal was becoming increasingly violence-prone even as the graph of militancy was declining in neighbouring Kashmir.

With more than 36 security-related casualties since October 2021 (20 of which took place last year accounting for more than 50 percent of total such killings in 2023), the Pir Panjal region is emerging as a hotbed of fresh militant-related activities in J&K. 

On 21 December last year, militants launched a similar attack on vehicles carrying personnel from 48 Rashtriya Rifles (RR) units of the Indian Army. The attack which resulted in the killings of five Army servicemen took place near the Dhatyar Morh area, which is between Dera Ki Gali and Bufliaz regions of the Poonch district. 

Shortly after the attack, the Army detained dozens of people three of whom died in custody due to torture. 

The carnage in Bufliaz was the fourth such deadly attack on the forces in 2023. Previously in November, at least five Army jawans were killed in a similar ambush attack in the Kalakote area of Poonch. Another five were killed during a combing operation near the Kandi forest area in Rajouri district in May last year.

The forces were actually trying to locate the militants responsible for a deadly attack that took place in April 2023 in which an additional five jawans had lost their lives. 

Second Terror Attack in Less Than a Month

The attack comes days after PM Modi commented on the lines of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not hesitating to eliminate terrorists on the home turf, while emphasising its fight against terrorism. This also involved remarks against Pakistan as he mentioned his LOC resolve and promised to take firm action outside its territory if a terrorist attack was being planned.

The fallout over these killings also impacted the diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan last year when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar refrained from shaking hands with his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Goa.

Jaishankar also delivered a stern press statement at the summit. “While the world was engaged with COVID and its consequences, the menace of terrorism continues unabated,” he said. "Taking off our eyes would be detrimental to our security interests. We firmly believe that there can be no justification for terrorism and it must be stopped in all its forms and manifestations including cross-border terrorism.”

The latest attack is the second such in 2024 especially as the Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary seat is heading to polls next week. Last month, militants shot dead Muhammad Raziq, a soldier with the Territorial Army (TA) division based in the Rajouri region.

Will India Retaliate?

The recurrence of these attacks has led to the debate around whether this could trigger a possible retaliation from the Indian side which could kick off a military escalation between the two countries like in February 2019 when a suicide bomb attack led to the killings of 40 CRPF jawans and brought New Delhi and Islamabad to the brink of war.

"It is a matter of timing when terrorists attack in a way where there will be a lot of casualties,” a senior security source told The Quint.

He said that the attacks taking place over the last two years indicate that the initiative has always rested with the militants. "They know it will take an hour before reinforcements arrive. They get enough windows to escape into forests by then. For them, it is a low-cost strategy.”

This dynamic has been visible in Kashmir from time to time but it now appears to have become a defining theme for the militancy in the Pir Panjal belt.

Mohammad Amin Butt, alias Jahangir Saroori remains one of the oldest surviving militants in J&K, and his survival is determined precisely by these tactics of remaining holed up high in the forests of Marwan and Dachhan forests of Kishtwar region. 

Carrying a bounty of Rs 50 lakh, Saroori has been active since 1992 and has so far managed to evade the security dragnet successfully. 

Similarly, an extremist named Salahuddin (not to be confused with the Salahuddin who heads the United Jihad Council (UJC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir), who was active in the Bandipora area of North Kashmir between 2004 and 2005 was able to survive because he lived undercover. He is reportedly in Dubai now.

“They are not waiting for you to come to kill them in a house, they are in the jungle and the onus of fighting them is on you,” an official said. 

However, counter-terrorism experts believe that the attacks such as in Surankote demonstrate that the terrorist groups in J&K are operating from a position of vulnerability rather than strength.

"The very reason they are embedded in the fortified locations in forests is because the high exposure to security forces has made it difficult for them to operate in the towns, cities, and other civilian habitations,” said Ajai Sahni, Executive Director at the Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi.

"Apart from being able to continue to do occasional damage, this is not the evidence of any new strategy or tactic. It is simply that this is all they can do," he added.

(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He has also written for The Wire.in, Article 14, Caravan Magazine, Firstpost, The Times of India and more. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)