J&K Stalemate: Mehbooba Mufti’s Struggle With Alliance Mathematics

As Mehbooba Mufti tries to wade through alliance woes, people in J&K are getting used to Governor’s rule.

Even the 40-day harshest period of winter in Kashmir, called Chilai Kalan locally, has ended. (Photo: The Quint)

The political freeze in Kashmir is showing no signs of thawing. It is interesting that even the 40-day harshest period of winter in Kashmir, called Chilai Kalan locally, has ended. But the dilemmas of Mehbooba Mufti and her party, the People’s Democratic Party, do not seem to end.

On February 2, J&K Governor Narendra Nath Vohra summoned Mehbooba Mufti to Jammu to discuss her plans for government formation. Mehbooba has again put the ball in the BJP’s court. BJP, on its part, has sought 10 days from the Governor for government formation in the state.

Mehbooba has admitted that she does not have the goodwill, experience and vision of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to handle BJP’s hot politics and keep the coalition going. She has also said that if BJP wants to form the government, they must announce some measures as assurances alone won’t keep the coalition government rolling.

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti addresses media persons after meeting Jammu and Kashmir Governor NN Vohra at Raj Bhavan in Jammu on February 2, 2016. (Photo: IANS)

Mehbooba’s Dilemma

What has worried Mehbooba and PDP most is that Mufti Sayeed’s funeral was attended by a very small number of people. Also, the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not visited the Muftis has also spoiled the alliance. This is indicative of the resentment brewing against PDP in Kashmir.

Mehbooba’s dilemma is precisely this: Will she walk out of the ‘marriage of inconvenience’ with the BJP which her father had arranged? Or, will she consider other options to make a ‘new beginning’ as a strong woman politician?

Kashmir-based political analyst Gowhar Geelani

Before Mehbooba considers walking out of the ‘marriage of inconvenience’, she has to work on some mathematics.

PDP had won 28 seats in the 2014 Legislative Assembly polls. The party added one more seat to its kitty with the nomination of Anjum Fazili, raising the total to 29. After Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s death, the party is left with 28 seats in the 89-member Legislative Assembly.

If PDP decides to divorce BJP and enter into a relationship with the Congress, it will have to prove its majority. Congress will add 12 MLAs to the PDP kitty. One may also add the unlikely support of four independent candidates. These are MLA Langate Engineer Rashid, MLA Khan Sahab Hakeem Yaseen, MLA Kulgam Muhammad Yusuf Tarigami, and MLA Zanskar Syed Mohammad Baqir Rizvi, who has already thrown his weight behind PDP. This alliance would be one seat short of the magical 45 seat mark in the 89-member Jammu Kashmir Legislative Assembly.

56-year-old Mehbooba Mufti is a grass roots politician. Today, she is in a fix whether to re-stitch the alliance with BJP or go for re-elections in the state. She has nurtured the party for 17 years, and will remain firmly in the president’s seat.

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti during the Fateha of her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed at Dara Shikov Park in Anantnag’s Bijbehara town on January 15, 2016. (Photo: IANS)

Is Re-Election An Option For PDP and BJP?

Under the present circumstances, Mehbooba cannot afford a re-election. There is clear evidence that PDP will not win 28 seats from the Valley again.

If Mehbooba decides to wait for six months and then opt for re-election, the party can sell two things to the people of the state. She can claim that she did not seek power, and hence did not rush to take over chief ministership after January 7, when her father died.

Second, PDP’s cadre will get six months to reshape their dented image in rural areas in general and in south Kashmir in particular, where the PDP has a strong vote share.

BJP, with 25 seats from the Jammu region in hand, is also in the doldrums. Jammu-based political analyst Zafar Chaudhary says the scene for BJP in Jammu is different today.

Hypothetically, if we go for re-elections today in Jammu and Kashmir, BJP will be reduced to half of its tally.

Jammu-based political analyst, Zafar Chaudhary

Mehbooba is known to be a decisive politician. What is perhaps holding her back from re-election is an astute reading of the pulse of the people.

Uncertainty Looms Large

• Alliance woes continue to haunt Mehbooba Mufti and her party as friction with BJP comes to the fore after the senior Mufti’s demise.
  
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi choosing not to attend the funeral of Mufti Sayeed, as well as a thin crowd in general, is indicative of the resentment brewing against PDP.
  
• Before Mehbooba considers walking out of the ‘marriage of inconvenience’, she would have to work out seat-related mathematics.
  
• If PDP decides to divorce BJP and enter into a relationship with the Congress, then too the PDP-Congress along with the Independents will fall short of majority.
  
• Mehbooba is in a fix whether to re-stitch the alliance with BJP or go for re-elections in the state.
  

PDP-BJP Governance Failure

In the last 10 months of PDP-BJP rule in conflict-torn Jammu & Kashmir, the coalition partners have miserably failed to provide any succour to the people.

The state is cynically observing that Governor Narendra Nath Vohra’s one month command has done more than what the coalition partners achieved in the last 10 months.

It has taken the Governor only one month to clear all the pending files in the Chief Minister’s office, and also release GPF funds to the tune of Rs 125 crore. There is so much relief among people over the efficient administration provided by the Governor that people of Jammu and Kashmir are now wishing that Governor’s rule should get extended so that work on impending projects is expedited.

(The writer is a freelance journalist.)