J&K Polls: The Secular Alliance Could Get Two-thirds of Seats in Central Kashmir

Voters show their voting slips as they wait to cast votes at a polling station during the first phase of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections.

(Photo: PTI)

As the campaign for Central Kashmir ends, the National Conference (NC) is well-placed to take two-thirds of the 15 seats in that region—along with its alliance partner, the Congress party.

The once-presumed separatist parties, Jamaat-e-Islami and `Engineer’ Rashid’s AIP, have little prospect of winning more than one seat in either Srinagar city or Budgam and Ganderbal districts, which flank the capital to the west and east respectively. Even the PDP is only really in the running in a few constituencies in this region.

The only two constituencies where those who would be expected to ally with the BJP have a chance of winning are Abid Ansari of Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference in Zadibal and Apni Party chief Altaf Bukhari in Chhanapora. Many Kashmiris expect various ways and means to be at play in the latter constituency.

The National Conference—and perhaps the Congress party too in Batmaloo—could have faced a tough challenge in a few Downtown Srinagar constituencies in case Mirwaiz Umar Farooq had openly or covertly backed candidates, but he has chosen not to.

Hakeem Yaseen Shah, who has represented the relatively backward Khansaheb area since 2002, could win again. His essentially one-man party, the Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Front (Secular), could back a BJP-led government.

Beerwah, an equally backward area in Budgam district, seems to be the only place where Rashid’s candidate has a fighting chance. Ironically, the seat was earlier held by National Conference Vice-President Omar Abdullah.

Omar seems absolutely safe in the Budgam constituency and should make it in Ganderbal too, although some have doubts about how the multi-cornered fight there might turn out. He has chosen to contest both seats.

Impact of the South

Between South and Central Kashmir, the NC-Congress alliance could win up to 20 seats. It could easily have won a couple more if it had distributed tickets more wisely. Two NC figures who were denied tickets seem well-placed to win their seats—Shopian and Tral—as independents.

The NC inexplicably denied the Shopian ticket to Shabir Ahmad Kullay, even though he polled an impressive 12,500 votes in 2014, when too he had been denied the party ticket. He told me he had been promised the ticket this time, and felt cheated when the party declared its nominees.

He filed his nomination papers the same day and has run a vigorous campaign. A popular lawyer from a prominent Shopian family, Kullay is well known in this important town of Southwest Kashmir.

It should have been obvious to party bosses that the party needed him more than he the party. For, the fact that he polled only around 5,000 votes the first time he contested in 2008, as the NC nominee, is among several pointers that show that the NC is weaker in Shopian than in many other places in Kashmir.

In Tral, the NC ceded the seat to the Congress, which has fielded a Sikh. The result is that the main fight appears to be between the PDP and the rebel NC candidate who is contesting as an independent. The AIP played a marginal role, and J-e-I did not back a candidate in Tral, where it has a large following.

It is difficult to say which way these independent candidates might turn in case they win. They are certainly bitter with their parent party and yet have a long and close association with it. There is much speculation over whether they might return to the NC, or support a BJP government —or possibly both, in case the NC and the BJP form a coalition in the face of a fractured mandate.

The Final Act

If, as seems likely, the alliance wins 20 seats in South and Central Kashmir, they must win another 25 seats for a majority. It is unclear whether the Congress party will pull up its socks adequately in the Jammu region, from where it is contesting more seats than the NC. Inexplicably, it was barely present in the arena early on in the campaign, even though there was huge disaffection against the BJP across the region.

The other huge question mark hangs over North Kashmir. That is the home base of Rashid’s party, which has fielded candidates in several northern constituencies.

With less than 10 days to go before polling, not a single seat there seems like a sure shot for the AIP. Not even Rashid’s brother seems home and dry in Langate, Rashid’s long-time constituency.

The outcome of these two regions will determine the fate of the union territory and its stability.

(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)