Jagan Reddy Avenges With A Coup, But Must Deal With BJP Carefully

Post Jagan Mohan Reddy’s historic win, Chandrababu Naidu has virtually been sent into political oblivion.

YSR Congress Chief Jagan Reddy. Image used for representational purposes. 

(Photo Courtesy: The News Minute)

Jaganmohan Reddy, the man who broke the Congress in a united Andhra Pradesh, has finally got the chief minister’s chair. He has not just won, but swept the state in a historic result. His rival, Chandrababu Naidu, has virtually been sent into political oblivion in both the state assembly and the Parliament.

Naidu was desperately trying to project himself as a key alliance maker, both before and after the polls, but he could not hold his own in the state. Even his son, Nara Lokesh, lost the Mangalagiri assembly seat, and every known TDP face was swept away by the Jagan wave.

In Andhra, TDP Faced Backlash Due to ‘Congress Link’

In every way, Naidu’s attempted alliance with the Congress backfired terribly in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress is still etched in the minds of the electorate as the party that divided Andhra Pradesh in 2014, despite the strong sentiment against division in Andhra and Rayalaseema. And so, Naidu’s truck with the Congress, dented his credibility.

In fact, the Congress and TDP fought the Telangana assembly elections together, and were routed in December 2018. In Telangana, the Congress suffered a backlash for allying with the TDP, as the latter had opposed the division and formation of a new state. After that the two parties realised their mistake and decided to not have an open alliance, it was clear that they were together at the national level.

In Andhra, the TDP has suffered a backlash because of the perception that it was clearly on the Congress’s side of the fence. This is one major reason for its debacle.

This apart, anti-incumbency at the local level, not just against Naidu, but against MLAs and MPs, has worked strongly against the party.

Pawan Kalyan’s Exit Delivered A Blow to TDP

Even in 2014, the TDP won Andhra Pradesh by a narrow 2 percent vote difference (Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP won 2 percent more votes in the Rayalseema region, but the TDP won 2 percent more vote in Coastal Andhra). The TDP had an alliance with the BJP in 2014.

Given the narrow margins of defeat, Jagan Reddy never let the ship sail out of sight, and has worked extremely hard at ensuring a grueling grassroots campaign with his padyatra across the state.

His father, the late Congress Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, had gone on a similar padyatra to bring the Congress to power in 2004.

Further, the TDP’s Kapu caste vote bank was split by actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party, and this had a major impact in north coastal Andhra Pradesh. In 2014, the YSR Congress Party had lost big in north coastal Andhra; even Jagan’s mother, YS Vijayamma, lost the Visakhapatnam Lok Sabha seat. Pawan Kalyan was in an alliance with the TDP in 2014, but his exit seems to have hit the TDP hard in the region.

‘Youth Power’ Bolstered Jagan Reddy’s Chances

While these are just grassroots arithmetic factors, the fact is that Jagan’s chemistry has destroyed the TDP. He had fielded young candidates in almost all constituencies, and his party represented youth power and energy. All this ensured that Jagan won nearly 8 percent more vote share than the TDP, and this is telling as Andhra is notorious for close contests.

The results also emphatically establish that the Congress and the BJP have do not have a significant presence in Andhra. However, given the complete rout of the TDP, the BJP will make every effort to build inroads in the state. Jagan also has several cases that he will have to navigate, in which the Centre could have some hold over him, and hence, has to tread the path to power carefully.

Finally, after a decade of political turmoil and difficulties, he has had his vengeance in 2019, but will have to play his cards well, both in Delhi and Amaravati, to make the most of this landslide victory.

(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)