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An IndiaSpend article shows that “Congress is not doing as badly as it seems”. This, however, would not have brought any cheer to the party leadership and its hardcore supporters.The fact is that Congress’ poor performance continued in 15 states which went to the polls after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In 11 of these 15 states, the party lost vote share vis-à-vis parliamentary elections.
The Congress gained vote share only in Assam, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Punjab. Of these, it lost Assam while it gained Punjab.
It could gain power only in Punjab and Bihar as a junior partner. The BJP too, lost vote share across these states. It is down from 27.8 percent in 2014 to 24 percent in assembly elections that followed.
However, the decline is not being captured by the Congress, but by the regional parties. One may argue that what should be looked at is the vote share of a party only in seats where it contested (contested vote share).
The other way to look at vote shares is to compare the combined vote share of the Congress alliance (UPA) in 2014 versus subsequent state polls. The Congress allied with JDU and RJD in Bihar, the SP in UP, the Left Front in West Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu. In three of four states, the Congress/UPA lost vote share except in Tamil Nadu.
The 813 MLAs the Congress commands is the lowest in its entire political history. It accounts for less than 20 percent of MLAs today. Even during the Janata Party regime, it had 25 percent MLAs and during the previous NDA government led by AB Vajpayee, the Congress’ had 22 percent legislators. The BJP has close to 1,400 MLAs – its highest tally – accounting for 34 percent of its total strength.
Resultantly, the percentage of Congress-ruled states is at its lowest at 19 percent.
However, it’s important to note that the party had won 478 seats in these 15 seats in the previous assembly elections.
If the Congress seeks to remain in electoral contention, it should:
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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