advertisement
At the time of writing this article, the Nifty is back to February 2020 levels. From our perspective, markets were expensive in February. It was a bubble then, and now with reduced earnings after COVID and Nifty back to February levels, markets are even more expensive.
In our June outlook (read here), we had written that the current liquidity rally could take markets higher. The Nifty has rallied about 10 percent since then and can even continue higher for the next month or so. In our opinion, we are now in the last leg of this euphoria. Markets will mostly also make new all-time highs because unrestrained liquidity can pump markets to extremes.
If you buy/hold onto, at high valuations now, it will only translate into lower returns in the future. All companies, irrespective of quality, correct, when a bubble bursts.
Every time I talk about expensive valuations and worsening fundamentals – whether it was in 2018, 2019, or 2020 – the permabulls always negate it with the argument that the ‘trend is your friend’ – and all the possible negatives have been factored into the price. That’s true. Until it isn’t. The reality is that markets are riskier and frothier than ever before.
The current frenzy is fuelled by liquidity and the conviction that quality stocks can never correct, and that the worst is behind us. Generally, at the peak of a bubble, investors are willing to buy at any price because they think the stocks can never go down and valuations don’t make a difference. Today, we are witnessing a bubble formation in the stock markets with worsening fundamentals.
It is tough to tell when this speculative rally will end, but when it happens, it will happen fast, almost paralysing investors from making sound decisions for their money. We have seen that in February and March 2020 itself.
All corrections don’t give this second opportunity to exit. In 2007-08, investors never got a chance to get out. It would be a missed opportunity to not sell off some equity as the market inches upwards. One must begin profit-booking in parts with every decent rise in the markets, and keep strict stop loss triggers.
The unwind – in whatever fashion it takes – is going to be messy. I am incredibly concerned about what the state of the market and the entire world is going to be when the bubble bursts.
COVID has put all of us in a tight spot; investors are running out of money. Times can get so difficult that even if you have the money, perhaps you might not dare to invest in the markets, especially if you have significant losses in your existing positions.
All I am saying is we are close to the top; what you want to focus on now is capital protection, it is time to become extremely conservative. All existing equity exposure should be carefully revalued at this point since the risk-reward ratio does not favour having significant equity positions.
And of course, many will say: ‘this time it’s different’. But “markets are a repetitive cycle of fear and greed, and you need to figure out which template is at play (Jim Rogers).”
(Disclaimer: This article was first published by the author on her blog and has been republished with permission.)
(Panna Bhandari is Founder, Emerald Investments, Ahmedabad, Gujarat. She tweets @Panna_Bhandari. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)
Published: undefined