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Multiple reports indicate that disengagement between India and China in Sub Sector North, Ladakh, remains stalled after the 4th Corps Commander level meeting on 14 July 2020. Further, there has been no de-escalation.
Disengagement seems to have occurred at two of the contested points. Troops of the Indian Army and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have reportedly disengaged from standoff positions at PP-14 (Galwan; site of 15 June clash; now a ‘buffer zone’) and PP-15 (south of Galwan). At PP-17A (Hot Springs), about 50 troops of each side still remain in close proximity.
In Pangong Tso, the PLA has pulled back from Finger-5, but have yet to move to their permanent location at Sirijap; they also continue to occupy a ridge near Finger-4. Importantly, reports also suggest that the PLA is not allowing Indian troops to patrol from PP-10 to PP-13 (Raki Nala-Bottle Neck/Y-Junction area) in the Depsang Plains, thereby restricting Indian access to an area of about 700 sq kms (this was earlier patrolled by both sides).
To begin with, there’s a need to dispel this popular ‘urban legend’ that President Xi Jinping orchestrated this intrusion in order to distract domestic attention away from his problems at home. The reality is different – Xi Jinping is neither an elected leader of a democracy nor coming up for re-election, nor is he facing any threat internally. Since assuming power in 2012, President Xi has consolidated his control both as president and head of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), and placed his confidantes in both political and military positions.
In 2017, the CCP reaffirmed Xi’s dominance and in March 2018, the party congress amended China’s constitution to roll back term limits for China’s president, thus paving way for Xi to remain in power beyond 2022. He has also run an aggressive anti-corruption campaign; silenced dissent; further controlled the media; constrained religious groups; as also embedded the CPC further into the Chinese society and economy. Experts, therefore, label him as the “most influential Chinese leader since Mao Zedong”.
The territorial message – if India can change the status quo of Ladakh, then so can China. There’s a need to note that these intrusions have happened only in Ladakh, and not anywhere else along the long Indo-China boundary. The strategic message is – despite India’s strategic expansion and increasing stature in the international arena, China doesn’t deem it a challenger.
The un-demarcated border with India provides China an ideal platform for such messaging – it can ad lib, exploit it to try and influence Indian policies through intrusions. There has been a set pattern to this Chinese process – India embarks on something China dislikes; the PLA intrudes; India and China talk; we assuage China privately, claim victory publicly, and they withdraw.
This intrusion is, however, dissimilar to past intrusions – it was sanctioned at the highest level, planned and executed aggressively at the tactical level. The 15 June violence was unprecedented (martial arts experts brought-in; use of clubs studded with nails and spikes etc) and Chinese would typically label it as “crushing blow messaging”.
There is thus a need to dwell on the chronology of this ongoing imbroglio – and the story seems to start with the Pulwama attack.
In negotiations, China is bound to raise its “concerns” about India’s growing closeness to the US, activation of the QUAD and India’s progressive clampdown on Chinese businesses.
As far as the military option is concerned, for a successful outcome, India will require far more forces than they have currently there. Defence, particularly in mountains, is a far stronger form of warfare, and the PLA has dug in and coordinated defensive positions there. While India has displayed resolve by swiftly inducting substantial military assets into Ladakh, frugal infrastructure and the collusive threat from Pakistan thwart the Indian military from focusing fully on the LAC.
Besides, maintaining large forces east of Siachen, in an area only slightly less inhospitable, will be an economic drain which could thwart plans to reduce the army’s numbers and effect savings in the forces’ salary bill (about 70% of the overall annual revenue budget). In turn, given the state of the economy, this could hinder the Indian military’s long-deferred modernisation.
The Chinese therefore, seem to be proffering three options to India, (i) revert to the hitherto fore friendly posture; or, (ii) suffer economic pain through a protracted military deployment; or, (iii) take chances with a debilitating military option. In sum: the stalemate is likely to persist and statements that the “Indian Armed Forces are prepared for a long haul” underscore that the powers-that-be understand what’s happening.
(Kuldip Singh is a retired Brigadier from the Indian Army. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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Published: 26 Jul 2020,10:46 AM IST