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If the QUAD process does come of age and decides to adopt its charter, the preambular paragraph should (though may not) read as follows:
“We, the likeminded democratic states, particularly concerned at the extra-territorial ambitions and belligerence of a country and committed to upholding a rule-based, equitable, stable and peaceful international order, as well as, safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in the Indo-Pacific region, hereby unanimously resolve to establish a Quadrilateral Security Mechanism (QUAD) in accordance with the framework outlined below.”
Briefing the American media on 6 October after the second ministerial QUAD meeting in Tokyo, a senior State Department official did not mince words – “...There’s no avoiding the fact that it’s China and its actions in the region that make the QUAD actually matter and function this time around... When you think of the QUAD, you think of security...”
Secretary Mike Pompeo was the only participant who named China in his brief opening remarks at the conference: “As partners in this QUAD, it is more critical now than ever, that we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption, and coercion.”
External Affairs Minister (EAM) Dr S Jaishankar just about alluded to the elephant in the room – “Our world is significantly different today than it was when we met last year in New York in September… We remain committed to upholding... respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty and peaceful resolution of disputes. Our objective remains advancing the security and the economic interests of all countries...”
And therein lies the rub.
If our discretion had helped in managing ties with Beijing then we should have, by all means, continued doing so. In reality, it had the opposite impact, with China feeling emboldened, and progressively upping the ante.
Its origin was accidental in a manner of speaking. The four protagonists – Australia, India, Japan and the US – intuitively sprung into action, in the aftermath of the Christmas Day tsunami in 2004, to rush disaster relief to the afflicted nations. On the move, they coordinated operations effectively, which sowed the seeds of QUAD.
However, the credit goes to former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, for his vision of the ‘Confluence of the Two Seas’ – Indian Ocean and the Pacific – to further freedom and prosperity; and for relentlessly encouraging the US, Australia and India to commence a four-way dialogue.
With the change of leadership in Japan and Australia the dialogue came to an abrupt halt, much to the relief of India. Meanwhile, China went about grabbing reefs, shoals and islands belonging to Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines, laying claim to most of the South China Sea under the dubious ‘Nine-Dash Line’. President Xi Jinping, who assumed office in 2012, unveiled the dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation to the people.
Once again, PM Abe – who returned to power in 2012 – was instrumental in the revival of the QUAD. The second official-level meeting took place after 10 years in November 2017. In the same year, President Trump endorsed the Indo-Pacific construct. By 2018 the geo-economic and geo-strategic contestation between Beijing and Washington had become more pronounced.
QUAD has a broad agenda of cooperation including in areas such as freedom of navigation and overflights, maritime security, cyber affairs, counter-terrorism, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Presently, combatting the coronavirus pandemic is also a priority.
Yet, as noted above, the driving force of the dialogue is the pressing need to deal with Chinese belligerence. Stock denials serve little or no purpose, as it is evident that the primary objective of QUAD is to broaden the membership base adequately, for establishing a viable security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region.
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, virtual QUAD meetings were hosted by Washington and New Delhi, to which a number of other countries such as South Korea, Israel, Brazil, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, France and Sri Lanka were invited. This author believes that except France, none of the special invitees have the political will to subscribe to the groupings’ agenda. In reality, most countries are hedging their bets till the picture becomes clearer.
It also enabled Japanese PM Suga to unequivocally signal continuity in policy.
Notwithstanding the fact that the sides again opted not to have a joint statement, there are enough indications that the forum is gaining traction. The following broad picture(s) can be pieced together from the opening remarks of the ministers, press releases and briefings by officials:
Thus, the QUAD nations are developing a comfort level, even though there are imponderables, such as the outlook of the next American president towards China. An institutional mechanism will evolve gradually, unless a Chinese misadventure hastens the process. In any event, the nations have a straightforward choice – to be governed by rules or be governed by power.
(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Canada, Ambassador to South Korea and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached at @AmbVPrakash. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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