Diplomacy Is About Knowing What You Can Expect & What You Can’t

MBS refrained from specifically naming any Pakistani terrorist group, including the Jaish-e-Mohammad.

Image used for representational purposes.

(Photo: The Quint)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed extraordinary warmth towards Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). While MBS is neither the head of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia nor formally the head of government, PM Modi elevated his protocol status to that of head of state, and went beyond it.

Thus not only was MBS accorded a 21-gun salute, but the President graced MBS’s formal reception at the Rashtrapati Bhavan forecourt and threw a banquet in his honour.

And PM Modi went to the airport to hug MBS as he stepped down from his aircraft. Mercifully, Modi did not go so far as Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan and its military leadership who greeted MBS as if he was the Prince of Wales visiting a British colony.

MBS’ Visit: All Sugar, No Substance?

More important than the ceremonial aspect of a visit is its substance.

• Did the MBS visit take the India-Saudi relationship forward?
• Did it address India’s concerns on security and terrorism?

There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia no longer considers India as a poor country which only supplies it with labour and buys its oil. Despite its close ties with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has increasingly recognised India’s enhanced global status and reach.

Consequently, it wants to develop a genuine strategic partnership with India. This would cover not only energy, but significant Saudi investments hopefully amounting in time to USD 100 billion. A major project under consideration is a USD 44 billion refinery which would be the largest in the world.

Increasing defence cooperation including joint exercises would be part of the strategic partnership. This is especially significant, because till now the Saudis have relied on the protective security cover provided by the United States with Pakistan occasionally acting virtually as the janissaries of the Saudi royal family. The decision to establish institutional arrangements for intelligence sharing is a welcome development.

Saudi’s ‘Shoddy’ Attempt at Shying Away?

As MBS toured Pakistan and India in the immediate aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist attack, the Indian media naturally paid attention to how Saudi responds to the entire situation. The most pressing question people thought of was whether MBS would not only forthrightly condemn the attack, but also be willing to name the Jaish-e-Mohammad as the organisation that carried it out.

He did the former but refrained from specifically naming any Pakistani terrorist group, leave alone the Jaish-e-Mohammad, which has claimed responsibility for the attack and taken pride in carrying it out. Generalisations are easy, but specifics require stands to be taken and that the Saudis avoided.

The Imran Khan-MBS joint statement, had “underlined the need for avoiding politicisation of UN listing regime”. The Indian media interpreted this as showing extraordinary concern for the Pakistani view that India has wanted Masood Azhar to be included in the UN list of international terrorists for political reasons.

As is well-known, China has prevented Masood Azhar from being declared as a UN designated international terrorist. There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia would have agreed to the inclusion of this formulation at Pakistani prompting.

When confronted by the Indian media to explain Saudi Arabia’s virtual protection of Masood Azhar, through this formulation, its Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel Al Jubeir was evasive. He said “I don’t really have much background on this issue so I am not in a position to judge.” This is hardly acceptable.

The Politics Behind Masood’s Listing

The fact is that it is China which is acting politically on the Masood Azhar listing matter. Ironically, while asking that UN listing of terrorists should not be politicised, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are doing exactly that.

Four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – Russia, France, Britain, and the United States – agree that Masood Azhar is an international terrorist. They do so on objective and technical criteria. The organisation itself is already a designated terrorist organisation.

It is inconceivable, then, that its head, Masood Azhar, has been oblivious of the terrorist acts it commits. Indian diplomats should use this formulation, whatever may have been its original intention, to pin Pakistan and China down. They should give it wide publicity. Sometimes Pakistani diplomats are too clever by half. This has been certainly one of those occasions.

Jubeir told the Indian media that it “pains” Saudi Arabia to see conflict between India and Pakistan, two countries in which Saudi Arabia has great interests. If MBS had any ambition of acting as a mediator, he has obviously learned a swift lesson of not trying to intervene in India-Pakistan issues.

To Be or Not to be?

Hence, Jubeir clarified that his country does not “insert” itself in matters where one of the two sides does not want it to. Clearly this lesson was learned after MBS arrived in India.

In Pakistan, he had as per the Saudi-Pakistan joint statement “praised openness and efforts of Prime Minister Imran Khan for dialogue with India and the opening of the Kartarpur crossing point and the efforts exerted by both sides, stressing that dialogue is the only way to ensure peace and stability in the region to resolve outstanding issues.” This formulation precisely articulates Pakistan’s standpoint.

In India, he had to appreciate “consistent efforts made by Prime Minister Modi since May 2014, including Prime Minister’s personal initiatives to have friendly relations with Pakistan. In this context, both sides agreed on the need for creation of conditions necessary for resumption of the comprehensive dialogue between India and Pakistan.” This is exactly India’s viewpoint, that talks and terror cannot continue, and only when terror ceases, that necessary conditions for dialogue would be created.

India should build its relations with Saudi Arabia as it is in its interest to do so. However, it should do so with its eyes open, realising that extraordinary gestures will not dilute the Saudi-Pakistani ties. It should also keep in mind that Saudi Arabia needs India too.

(The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached @VivekKatju. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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