Accident or Assassination? On Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s Mysterious Death

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash on 20 May.

While no official reason has been ascribed for the crash, pockets of inevitable speculation about a foreign hand (Israel and US?) and a calibrated assassination plot, are surfacing on social media.

(Photo: Chetan Bhakuni/ The Quint)

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a tragic mishap when the US-built Bell 212 helicopter carrying him crashed in a mountainous region near the Azerbaijan border. The death of Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who was accompanying him was confirmed on 20 May, Monday, even as a late-night search was mounted by the Iranian military and other agencies in near-blizzard conditions.

First, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is expected to take over as the interim President of Iran and elections are to be held within 50 days, as stipulated, to appoint a successor after the death of a sitting president.

Iran is in a state of shock, muted anger, and mourning. While no official reason has been ascribed for the crash, pockets of inevitable speculation about a foreign hand (Israel and the United States?) and a calibrated assassination plot are surfacing on social media. Calibrated — since the presidential convoy that ferried Raisi and his entourage is reported to have comprised three choppers and only one crashed into the mountainside.

Challenges in Front of Iran

Raisi, a former Chief Justice and a hardliner conservative cleric, deemed close to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, assumed office in August 2021 after defeating the sitting President Hassan Rouhani who represented the more moderate faction in Iranian politics. 

Iran with a population of almost 90 million and a GDP of just under $500 billion is a major hydrocarbon producer and is located in a critical maritime geography. Tehran has been under extended US-led Western sanctions since 1979 for its inflexible, anti-US/Israel ideological orientation and later, over its nuclear program and other terrorism-linked transgressions in violation of the US laws. 

The Aviation sector has been severely affected since most of the air assets of Iran were acquired from the United States prior to the 1979 Iranian Revolution that brought the Shia clergy to power (the investigation report will indicate if a lack of operational/maintenance expertise and shortage of spares led to the crash that killed Raisi).

Currently, Iran is facing a number of complex challenges domestically, regionally, and in relation to the United States — after former US President Donald Trump in 2017 reneged on the Obama-brokered nuclear deal — thereby, strengthening the hardliner constituency in Tehran.

President Raisi’s tenure since mid-2021 was further exacerbated by the COVID crisis, the war in Syria and later Ukraine, and now in Gaza after the 7 October Hamas terror attack. Iran has been accused of providing sizeable support to terror groups in West Asia to advance its own politico-religious agenda and the H3 cluster — Hamas, Hizbollah, and Houthi — is illustrative.

Iran as a Geo-Political Player

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is at the apex of the power structure in the theological nation has reassured people that there will be no disruption to the affairs of the state after the death of President Raisi. It is widely expected that a hardliner in the Raisi mould will be identified and elected President within the mandatory 50-day period.

Iran is a regional heavyweight with a civilisational pedigree and has been cast as an adversary by the United States, Israel, and some Islamic states in the Saudi-led Sunni camp.

The nuclear program of Iran and the US-led global effort to ensure that Tehran does not acquire the bomb have added to the current discord and the new President will inherit a thorny mantle.

The US dollar traded at about 32,000 Iranian rials in early 2017 now stands at 42,000 and food prices, housing, and health costs are rising. Unemployment is rampant and the younger citizens — especially women — are pushing back against the excesses of the state, particularly moral policing.

The immediate priority will be for the conservative faction supporting Supreme Leader Khamenei to ensure a smooth transition and there are reports that 'dynasty’ may come into play.

The 'Greater' Loss

It is being speculated that in the intense factional tussle likely to animate Iranian domestic politics for the next few weeks, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the Supreme Leader may emerge as the new Iranian President.

While Iran mourns the death of its President in what many Iranians dub as 'mysterious’ — the greater loss in terms of continuity in governance and foreign policy will be the untimely demise of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

An experienced and astute diplomat who was close to the Iranian hardliner faction and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), he also steered Tehran’s complex and often prickly relations with Saudi Arabia and the contested nuclear negotiations with external interlocutors.

In any event, West Asia will be in a state of anxiety and uncertainty for some time even as the Israeli war against Palestine shows no sign of moving towards consensual negotiations and the US moves into the last lap of a frenzied presidential race.

Within the region, there are reports that the health of the 88-year-old Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz is fragile and the de facto succession in Riyadh will soon become de jure.

Impact on India-Iran Ties

The Raisi departure is unlikely to significantly impact the India-Iran relationship which has been constrained by the swings in the Iran-US bilateral relationship. Currently, the Chabahar port which was envisioned as a symbol of India-Iran regional development has become entangled in the Iran-US slipstream.

The new government in Delhi (Modi-led or otherwise)  will have to wait for the new leadership in Tehran to stabilise and review the outcome of the US elections for some degree of clarity about what lies ahead after the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi.

(The writer is a leading expert on strategic affairs. He is currently Director, Society for Policy Studies. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)