Data: When Do Voters Decide Whom to Vote For? Do They Prefer Party Or Candidate?

For strategists and pollsters, the timing of decision-making highlights the need for dynamic, responsive campaigns.

Voters wait in a queue at a polling station to cast their votes for the fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections, in Mumbai, Monday, 20 May, 2024.

(Photo: PTI)

The 2024 Indian general election verdict reveals a political landscape marked by shifting allegiances, unexpected gains, and the persistence of deeply ingrained voter behaviour.

Despite a strong campaign, the BJP lost its majority, securing only 240 seats compared to the previous 303. The opposition, under the INDIA bloc, made substantial gains, highlighting a shift in voter sentiment. The CSDS Post Poll Study 2024 offers invaluable insights into how and when voters made their decisions, shedding light on what these patterns mean for the future of Indian democracy.

The study shows that more than a quarter of Indian voters (27.5 percent) had already made up their minds even before the candidates were announced. These early birds exhibit unwavering loyalty to their party, reflecting deep-seated ideological commitments.

For these voters, it’s not about who stands; it’s about what the party stands for. This group forms the bedrock of political stability, offering a reliable base that parties can depend on. 

On the other hand, we have the eleventh-hour deciders – a crucial 14.1 percent who wait until the very last moment to cast their vote. These voters are the wildcards, capable of turning the tide of an election based on the latest headline or last-minute campaign efforts. For politicians, this highlights the importance of both long-term engagement and impactful, timely messaging in the final days leading up to the election. The battlefield remains fluid until the very end. 

Question asked: When did you decide whom to vote for?

Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals 

Timing of Decision	Percentage
On the day of voting	14.10%
A day or two before voting	13.40%
During the campaign	20.70%
After the announcement of candidates	20.70%
Even before the announcement of candidates	27.50%
No response	3.60%

In Karnataka, the Congress party's early announcement of candidates and consistent engagement with the electorate paid off, securing key constituencies like Bangalore Rural and Chikballapur, where early deciders demonstrated strong party loyalty. Conversely, in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP saw mixed results. In constituencies like Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar, last-minute campaign efforts, including high-profile rallies by Narendra Modi, managed to sway the eleventh-hour deciders, yet overall losses in the state indicated a broader dissatisfaction with party performance.

This dynamic showcases the polarised but stable nature of the electorate, where a significant portion of voters are anchored to their ideological bases, making it challenging for new players and smaller parties to break in. The early deciders reflect a stable electorate, while the last-minute deciders underscore the importance of timely, impactful campaign strategies.

Party Loyalty vs Candidate Charisma: A Nation Divided 

When asked what mattered most in their voting decision, nearly half of the voters (49.9 percent) prioritised the party over the individual candidate. This trend underscores a profound allegiance to party ideology and national narratives. It's the brand loyalty of politics – voters who stick with their party no matter who the face of the campaign is.

However, the power of a charismatic candidate cannot be discounted. A significant 36.2 percent of voters put the candidate first, highlighting that personal appeal and local presence still hold considerable sway.

This split reveals the dual nature of Indian politics: it's both deeply ideological and intensely personal. Strategists must craft narratives that resonate on both levels – the grand vision and the relatable story. 

Question asked: People have different considerations while deciding whom to vote for. In this election what mattered to you more – party or candidate?  

Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

Consideration	Percentage
Party	49.90%
Candidate	36.20%
Prime Ministerial candidate	9.60%
Other factors	0.80%
No response	3.50%

The data suggests that while the BJP's reliance on Narendra Modi's charisma played a crucial role, the underlying party allegiance also mattered significantly. The erosion of seats despite Modi's appeal indicates that voters were looking beyond personalities to the performance and policies of the party itself. This preference for party over candidate raises questions about local accountability.

If representatives are elected based on party affiliation, their performance might become secondary to their party's image. Strengthening local governance and ensuring that elected officials remain responsive to their constituents is crucial. After all, democracy thrives on the connection between the people and their representatives. 

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) managed to retain strongholds like Asansol and Krishnanagar by emphasising party ideology and development records. Mamata Banerjee's local leadership resonated with voters who prioritised party over individual candidates. Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, the BJP's reliance on Devendra Fadnavis's leadership saw mixed outcomes. Constituencies like Pune and Mumbai North saw voters swayed by the local candidate's appeal, reflecting the complex interplay between party loyalty and candidate charisma. 

The Influence of Social Networks: Voting as a Family Affair

Despite claims of independence, the Indian voter is far from an island. The study shows that 24.9 percent of voters are influenced by family and community opinions. Imagine the dinner table discussions, the neighborhood debates, and the subtle nudges from respected elders – these all play a critical role in shaping electoral choices. 

For campaigners, this means that engaging with family networks and community leaders can be a game-changer. Micro-targeting strategies that tap into these social structures can amplify a campaign’s reach and impact. Think of it as grassroots campaigning 2.0 – where the conversation starts at home and ripples through the community.

Question asked: In deciding whom to vote for, whose opinion mattered to you the most?

Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

Influential Opinion	Percentage
No one, voted on their own	56.00%
Husband/wife	8.00%
Parents	3.80%
Other family members	13.10%
Caste/community leaders	5.30%
Religious leaders	1.30%
Friends/neighbors	3.20%
Co-workers/colleagues	1.60%
Local political leader	3.20%
Others	2.40%
Don't know	2.10%

The influence of social networks highlights the importance of local engagement in elections. Campaigns that effectively tap into these networks can create a powerful multiplier effect, amplifying their message through trusted social channels.

This grassroots engagement is crucial in a diverse and populous country like India, where community connections often hold more sway than distant political figures. 

In Bihar, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) effectively mobilised community leaders and family networks in constituencies like Darbhanga and Purnia, resulting in significant gains. Their strategy of grassroots engagement, coupled with targeted messaging, resonated well with voters influenced by social networks. In contrast, the BJP's attempts to penetrate these networks in traditional RJD strongholds faced stiff resistance, highlighting the challenge of breaking into established social structures. 

Media and Campaign Dynamics

For strategists and exit pollsters, the timing of decision-making highlights the need for dynamic, responsive campaigns. The role of media – both traditional and digital – cannot be overstated. It’s not just about reaching the voters but engaging them in real-time, addressing their concerns, and swaying their opinions with timely, impactful messaging. The last-minute deciders, in particular, are the digital age’s swinging voters, influenced by the latest tweet or breaking news.

The BJP's use of digital media in the final days of the campaign was particularly effective in constituencies like Varanasi and Ahmedabad, where they managed to swing undecided voters with targeted online ads and social media blitzes highlighting their key achievements and future plans.

The Congress party, on the other hand, utilised traditional media channels to great effect in Kerala. By leveraging regional television networks and newspapers, they addressed local issues and engaged directly with voters, leading to crucial wins in constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK effectively combined both traditional and digital media strategies to maintain a continuous presence in the minds of voters. Their campaign, which included local television debates, radio jingles, and a strong social media presence, ensured that they could influence last-minute deciders in key constituencies like Chennai South and Coimbatore.

The interplay of early deciders, party loyalty, candidate charisma, and social networks shapes the electoral landscape in profound ways. For politicians and strategists, understanding these dynamics is key to navigating the ever-evolving battlefield of Indian democracy.

(Naman Jaju, a researcher at CSDS Lokniti, currently pursuing an undergraduate degree in Politics at Ashoka University. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)