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Drones have taken over the difficult and dangerous job of cleaning and painting the exteriors of high-rise buildings. Specialists finetune their diagnoses with the help of medical algorithms. Numerous driverless smart vehicles navigate themselves through busy intersections. Your refrigerator at home autonomously places an order for fresh milk, bread and vegetables as they run out.
Kai-Fu Lee, author of ‘AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order’ – an eminently readable and well-researched book – notes that China pumped-in 48 percent of the total global investment in AI (Artificial Intelligence) startups in 2017. This is the result of a highly-coordinated nationwide effort led by the Chinese government and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent), the ‘big-three internet’ and e-commerce giants.
Hitherto, China was known as the factory of the world, mass-producing consumer goods at cut-throat prices. Along the way, it perfected the art of reverse engineering and cloning almost anything – be it brand labels, automobiles, electronics or heavy equipment. Gradually, Chinese entrepreneurs learnt to make incremental improvements to cater to the preferences of its huge market.
In fact, just fifteen years ago, China looked at India with envy for emerging as an IT software powerhouse. This author, as Consul General of India in Shanghai in 2006, had a hard time coping with requests from the Chinese county, city and provincial officials, to facilitate a visit to Bangalore. For them it was almost a rite of passage.
President Xi Jinping who came to power in 2012, quietly launched the second ‘Great Leap Forward’ in the IT and AI spheres. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in September 2014, Premier Li Keqiang introduced China’s new policy of ‘mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation’.
It is as if monetary sluice gates have since been flung open. Investments by the state quadrupled in 2015 to USD 27 billion to foster mass innovation, from USD 7 billion in 2013. 6,600 new startup incubators have been added since 2015. “I have spent decades deeply embedded both in Silicon Valley (SV) and China's tech scene... I can tell you that SV looks downright sluggish compared to its competitor,” observes Lee.
Its policy of ‘innovation with Chinese characteristics’ both facilitates and stunts R&D. A natural by-product of automation and AI applications is job redundancy. But CPC mortally fears unemployment. It is also apprehensive of global stars like Jack Ma (founder of Alibaba). It is widely believed that he was edged out of chairmanship of Alibaba, at the establishment’s behest.
Tencent has also been slapped on the wrist. The state refused to approve new mobile video games, a money-spinner for Tencent, as CPC felt that they were luring young minds into infructuous endeavours. Similarly, several popular TV shows were deemed decadent and banned.
The Chinese momentum will be further checked due to the trust-deficit with and the apprehensions of the free-world. India for one, which is expected to be the world’s third largest USD 10 trillion economy around 2030, is unlikely to use Chinese AI applications in sensitive areas such as banking, energy, communications, aviation, government and defense.
PwC estimates AI deployment will add USD 15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. Fortunately, other nations are also competing for a slice of the cake. India too has the four key elements to ascend the IT value chain and harness the gains of AI, IOT (Internet of things), deep-learning and 4IR (fourth industrial revolution).
These are – big data, capable human resources, computing power and favourable policy environment. The government has unveiled wholesome initiatives like Digital India and Startup India to strengthen the nation’s tech ecosystem.
All the same, AI will be a mixed blessing. It will accentuate unemployment as well as the digital and wealth divide among nations. However, humanity will learn to cope with the challenges while enjoying the fruits of progress, as it did, in the wake of the previous industrial revolutions.
(The writer is a former High Commissioner to Canada, Ambassador to South Korea and Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached at @AmbVPrakash. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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Published: 26 Mar 2019,07:48 PM IST