Inside the BJP's Playbook for the 2024 Elections Against a Resilient Opposition

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Image used for representation only. 

(Photo: PTI)

In a political spectacle that has reshaped the landscape ahead of the 2024 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinched victories in the state elections of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The triumph, though not guaranteed, marked a strategic shift as the Congress, considered a key contender, found itself on the back foot.

This victory not only altered the dynamics of the forthcoming general elections but also solidified the BJP's dominance in the Hindi heartland, with the exception of Punjab, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Bihar. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emerging from these wins, has assumed an almost unbeatable persona, further consolidating his position as a formidable leader on the national stage. The victories underscored the BJP's commitment to establishing a saffron stronghold, leaving the opposition grappling with the enormity of the task ahead.

The opposition, in its current fragmented state, must urgently reassess its strategy. A united front, grounded in a shared vision and a coherent narrative, is essential to counter the BJP's narrative dominance and the allure of an unbeatable Modi. Failure to present a cohesive alternative not only weakens the opposition but also contributes to the perception of an unassailable ruling regime.

In the face of this well-entrenched political narrative, where unity and a shared vision are paramount, the opposition appears to be offering confusion and division rather than a cohesive alternative. This lack of a united front plays directly into the hands of the ruling regime, making them appear larger and more powerful than their actual standing.

Can the Opposition Counter BJP's Double Engine?

The saffron tide in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh has ignited a new chapter in India's political landscape. The BJP's "double engine governance" model, once a regional strategy, now roars across the Hindi heartland, with 10 states—from MP to Manipur, UP to Assam—under its saffron hood. This expansive influence presents a formidable challenge for the opposition, demanding a recalibration of strategy and narrative.

Imagine a symphony—not of instruments but of engines thrumming in unison. Each state is a cog in the BJP's development machine, fuelled by synchronised central schemes and state-level execution. This carefully orchestrated chorus has the potential to amplify successes, drown out critiques, and weave a compelling narrative of national progress. The opposition, scattered in pockets across the nation, risks being relegated to the sidelines, their voices lost in the saffron crescendo.

Caste, their traditional trump card, seems blunted against the BJP's broader appeal to OBCs (Other Backward Classes), with their targeted welfare schemes finding fertile ground in these newly conquered states. The challenge then becomes crafting a counter-narrative that resonates beyond narrow regional concerns. Unity, a concept elusive at present, becomes paramount. Can the opposition forge a cohesive front, transcending ideological differences and presenting a vision for India that speaks to the anxieties and aspirations of a diverse electorate?

This battle is not just about policy but also about perception. The BJP controls the narrative, the resources, and the machinery of governance across a vast swathe of the nation. They can cherry-pick successes, downplay failures, and project an image of invincibility that's hard to crack. The opposition, lacking this centralised platform, must find innovative ways to connect with voters, humanise their policies, and demonstrate their competence in navigating the complexities of a nation as diverse as India. 2024 looms large, the battleground a vast terrain painted in saffron hues. The BJP's engine roars, a chorus of promises echoing across the land.

Can the opposition find their own rhythm and an engine of hope and change? Can they convince voters that the emperor, despite his gleaming machinery, has left much on the road untended? Only time will tell if India's democracy can shift gears into a future more inclusive, more equitable, and more just.

The Saffron Juggernaut Rolls On

In the aftermath of the saffron victories in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP is gearing up for an audacious 2024, with its war machine humming ominously. The tremors from recent defeats of the opposition echo, hinting at an impending storm of relentless attacks. The BJP is preparing a multi-pronged offensive, using central agencies as tools of pressure and weaponizing its development narrative to stifle dissent, buoyed by electoral dominance.

The opposition must brace itself, as the crosshairs are firmly set upon them. They should anticipate heightened scrutiny from investigative agencies, meticulously timed to cast doubt on every move. The saffron megaphone will amplify missteps, turning them into allegations of corruption and incompetence. The BJP's goal is evident: to delegitimise, demoralise, and disintegrate any semblance of a united opposition.

Under this offensive lies a deeper ambition. The BJP, intoxicated by electoral success, dreams of a historic victory in 2024 that will establish its reputation in Indian politics. This audacious goal fuels their aggression, leading them to exploit every advantage and bend every rule. The opposition, fragmented and reeling, become collateral damage in their quest for absolute power. Can the opposition weather this storm? Can they rise above fabricated scandals and craft a counter-narrative that resonates with a nation grappling with economic woes and social discord?

Unity, their Achilles' heel, becomes their shield. Can they forge a cohesive front, transcending ideological divides, to present a vision for India that offers hope and stability? The battle lines are drawn, not just for 2024 but for the very soul of Indian democracy. Will the opposition crumble under the saffron onslaught, or will they rise like a phoenix, their voices amplified by a restive populace? The answer lies in their ability to find common ground, harness collective strength, and remind the nation that democracy thrives not on dominance but on dissent, the unfettered exchange of ideas, and the courage to challenge the status quo.

It is crucial to recognise that the opposition is still not prepared to stand united when faced with harassment from the central government and its agencies. An illustrative instance is the arrest of Aam Aadmi Party leader and former Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi, Manish Sisodia, by central agencies. Surprisingly, the Congress maintained a conspicuous silence, and notably, the Delhi unit of the Congress party actively supported Sisodia's arrest. The Congress also refrained from commenting on the arrest of senior Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh. In West Bengal, the Congress and the CPIM consistently called for the arrest of Trinamool Congress leaders, including the General Secretary and Mamata Banerjee's nephew, Lok Sabha Member of Parliament Abhishek Banerjee.

This lack of solidarity and cohesion within the opposition raises concerns. If such disunity persists and the opposition alliance only sends messages of unity sporadically during select meetings, it erodes trust in the alliance. This scenario aligns precisely with the objectives of the BJP, which seeks to exploit divisions within the opposition for its advantage.

The Art of Polarisation in BJP's Political Canvas

As the political landscape of the Hindi heartland firmly falls under the BJP's grasp, a highly polarised stage is set for the impending 2024 elections. This shift in power dynamics is poised to redefine the national political discourse, with the BJP strategically prioritising issues like the Ram Mandir and the uniform civil code in its campaign agenda. The implications of this strategic move are profound, warranting a closer examination of the challenges it poses for both the ruling party and the opposition.

The BJP's emphasis on the Ram Mandir and the uniform civil code signifies a deliberate shift in its campaign strategy. By choosing these issues, the party aims to tap into emotive and identity-driven sentiments, resonating with a significant section of the electorate. This calculated move not only solidifies the BJP's hold on its traditional vote base but also sets the stage for a politically charged atmosphere, shaping the narrative leading up to the 2024 elections.

The challenge for the opposition lies not only in devising effective strategies to counter the BJP's ideological fervour but also in crafting a narrative that resonates with the diverse fabric of the nation. The absence of the Congress in the Hindi heartland intensifies the opposition's predicament, demanding innovative approaches to bridge the ideological gap and appeal to a broad spectrum of voters.

In the face of a polarised political landscape and the BJP's strategic shift, the opposition must navigate the intricate terrain of ideology and identity politics. The success of the BJP's campaign agenda will hinge on its ability to consolidate support around these emotive issues, posing an intricate challenge for its adversaries. As the nation braces for a highly charged 2024 election, the opposition must strategically counteract the BJP's ideological push and present an alternative vision that resonates with the aspirations of a diverse and pluralistic India.

BJP's Caste Calculus

The recent victories of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh underscore a seismic shift in political strategy. The Congress's attempt to replicate a Bihar-like caste narrative across states has failed, revealing that caste alone is not a winning pitch. The BJP, recognising the electoral significance of caste equations, strategically appointed chief ministers and deputy chief ministers in alignment with diverse caste dynamics.

Contrary to the Congress's OBC reservation push, the BJP secured victories by breaking caste barriers. Choosing an OBC chief minister in Madhya Pradesh, a tribal leader in Chhattisgarh, and a Brahmin leader in Rajasthan, the BJP aims to dismantle traditional vote banks.

By reaching out to diverse castes, the BJP aims to preemptively neutralise caste-based issues that the opposition may leverage in the 2024 general elections. This caste-conscious political strategy, expanding beyond its traditional base, poses a formidable challenge to the opposition.

If successful in the Hindi heartland and adjacent areas, the BJP's inclusive approach would mark a monumental achievement and a significant setback for the opposition, irreversibly altering the political landscape. The BJP's caste calculus is a crucial aspect of its 2024 playbook, emphasising the party's adaptability in navigating India's complex socio-political terrain.

2024 Will Only Be About BJP vs Congress

In the aftermath of the recent state elections, the Congress' resounding defeats have handed the BJP a central narrative for the approaching 2024 elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, adept at seizing political opportunities, is poised to capitalise on the Congress' setbacks.

The BJP is framing this moment as pivotal, advocating for a transformative shift towards a "Congress Mukt Bharat."The term "Congress Mukt Bharat," coined by the BJP, envisions a scenario where the Congress party's influence is eradicated from the political landscape of India. PM Modi, leveraging the Congress' defeats, seeks to present this vision as a necessary paradigm shift for the nation.

By positioning the Congress party as an impediment to progress and development, the BJP aims to galvanise public sentiment in favour of a political landscape devoid of Congress influence. As the BJP gears up for the 2024 elections, the Congress' defeat becomes a linchpin of its electoral strategy.

Whether the BJP can successfully imprint the "Congress Mukt Bharat" paradigm in the minds of voters will play a crucial role in shaping the political narrative leading up to the elections.

[The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a columnist and research scholar. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.]