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Niccolo Machiavelli, the noted political philosopher, wrote in The Prince, "It is better to be feared than to be loved if one cannot be both."
In the context of Bihar politics, the recent resignation of Lalan Singh as president of the Janata Dal (United) is a prime example of Nitish Kumar’s politics of possibilities. This proves, yet again, that the Bihar chief minister (CM) is the sole leader of the JD(U) and no one can challenge his authority within the party.
However, this event has implications outside of Bihar as well, that is, for the INDIA bloc (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
Nitish has a history of using pressure tactics to garner his own political interests and hold key positions within his party and the government.
He, George Fernandes, and Sharad Yadav established the JD(U) in 2003. It is quite interesting that the Nitish sidelined both of them from the party. Fernandes opposed making Nitish the CM face of the JD(U)-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) alliance in the 2005 assembly election.
In 2014, Jitan Ram Manjhi was removed as the CM of Bihar because he started acting independently of Nitish and took several decisions without consulting him. The same pattern was repeated with veteran socialist leader Sharad Yadav in 2017. He opposed two moves by Nitish.
First, Sharad Yadav was not happy with Nitish quitting the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in 2014. Second, Sharad was against Nitish joining hands with the BJP in 2017. Later Sharad Yadav resigned from the JD(U). The recent case is with RCP Singh. He was removed from the party and Nitish accused him of breaking the party with the aid of the BJP. These actions against important leaders of the JD(U) show that no one is equal to Nitish within the party. Any barrier to his politics of possibilities faces complete repression.
Nitish wants two things as of now. First, he desires a key position within the INDIA bloc. After the first meeting of opposition leaders in Patna on 23 June, Nitish has not been able to consolidate a central position in the alliance. At one stage, he was the key to mobilising and organising all opposition leaders.
The Congress party and other political leaders are using the caste census as one of the prominent issues to mobilise voters. Nitish has successfully conducted one in Bihar after 1931, extended the reservation, and provided more than three lakh government jobs. He thinks that he could be a poster boy for the nationwide caste census demand of the INDIA bloc.
Lalan Singh, as the party chief, had the responsibility to fulfill these two interests. However, his actions took different directions.
First, Singh was allegedly in close proximity with Lalu Yadav regadring Tejashwi's CM prospects. Also, Nitish had internal conflicts with a few of his close associate ministers like Ashok Chowdhury, JD(U) Bihar President Umesh Kushwaha, and Vijay Chowdhury. Nitish suspected that he was losing a grip over his power. It was closing the gate for him with respect to 2025.
Second, as a member of the coordination committee of the INDIA alliance, it seems that Lalan Singh was not interested in conveying Nitish's ambition regarding the latter's desire for a central role.
Today, the JD(U) does not have any substantial base or organisation. And as Nitish grows older, there is a looming threat that his party’s existence will not stand the test of time. In all probabilities, if Nitish fails to gain anything in 2024, he might not be able to use his pressure tactics to negotiate with the BJP or the RJD in the future. The BJP is no longer the party it used to be.
However, as of now, it seems that Nitish's tactics are working. There is again a political buzz in the power corridor that Nitish can be made the convenor of the INDIA alliance.
Nitish, despite his lack of party organisation, social base, and even charismatic personality, is able to maintain his centrality in Indian politics. What makes this possible?
First, his image is clean and clear. Despite ruling Bihar for 20 years, there has been no corruption case against him, in public at least. Even a decade back, when Nitish was minister in several central government ministries, he was one of the most accountable faces. He resigned from the railway ministry after a tragic accident. On other hand, most other members of the INDIA bloc are facing corruption charges.
Third, he also does not belong to any of the political dynasties of India like Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav, M K Stalin, Jayant Chaudhary, Omar Abdullah, Udhhav Thakeray, and Mehbooba Mufti among others. Also, there is no charge against him that he prioritises the benefits of his family members. It makes his reputation and career intact.
Fourth, Nitish, even after a longer period of alliance with the BJP has a very secular image. He projects an independent stance on UCC, Triple Talaq, Ayodhya Case etc. It helps Nitish in getting a significant chunk of Muslim votes apart from the EBCs and Mahadalits.
These qualities and traits have helped him to use fear and pressure as a form of tactic for his politics of possibilities.
[Kishan Kumar (kishanncps@gmail.com) is a research associate at Ashoka University, Haryana. Nitish Kumar (kumar30niti@gmail.com) is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for Political Studies, JNU. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.]
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