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The share price of Tata Motors was ruling at around Rs 185 on 1 January 2021. It is close to Rs 300 now.
In other words, there has been a parabolic rise of close to 60 percent in just 14 trading sessions! The eye-popping rally has been driven by, among others, a rumour (denied by the company last week) and some numbers which seem to suggest that the worst is over for the company.
The share took a breather when the company issued a denial. The gravity defying rally is now back, with the share price rising in excess of 15 percent in the last three trading sessions alone. And this has happened despite major institutional investors paring down its holding in the company in the quarter ending December.
Has the company witnessed a massive turnaround of sorts? At least published numbers do not give such an impression. Take a look:
Do these numbers suggest a major re-rating of the stock? Tata Motors is just one of many examples of parabolic moves seen in share prices of a number of companies in the last three months. This has happened despite the valuation of Nifty, the index that tracks movement of top 50 companies, seen in the bubble territory.
According to reliable estimates, the price to earnings (PE) ratio of Nifty is in excess of 38 which was way more than the average of last 20 years. On this parameter, Nifty is trading at a valuation which is higher than most of the global indices. PE ratio gives an indication of the amount of money investors are willing to pay to own a rupee of earning of a company. High PE means investors have to shell out a lot more to own a piece of a company.
An interesting research done by CNBC-TV 18 shows that the share market in the US gave 65 percent return during the course of Donald Trump’s four-year term. On this parameter, he performed much better than other Republicans who preceded him at the helm. The average return with a Democrat as president has been 46 percent in the past, according to the research. With Democrat Joe Biden at the helm now, the share market is likely to inch higher. And with Janet Yellen, an advocate of accommodative monetary policy, as treasury secretary, the liquidity tap may continue to pour dollars in near term.
However, with stocks so richly valued as they are now, there are clearly risks of the unprecedented bull run getting derailed. Analysts see at least the following four risks now:
Market participants are aware of these risks. Who has the time to weigh risk and reward — such is the ferocity of dollar inflow. So far, there has been no risk and all reward.
(Disclaimer: I have been trying, not very successfully though, to profit from inflated moves in the share market.)
(The author is an occasional writer and an aspiring entrepreneur. He tweets @Mayankprem. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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Published: 22 Jan 2021,01:29 PM IST