Bangladesh Protests | Sheikh Hasina Will Ride Out This Crisis but at What Cost?

India, on the other hand, has steadfastly maintained that the agitation is Bangladesh’s internal matter.

Anti-quota supporters clash with police and Awami League supporters in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

(Photo: Reuters)

Soon after returning to Dhaka after an official visit to China, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government faced a major challenge due to the students' agitation on the issue of quotas (reservation) in government jobs. Their ire was directed at the 30 percent quota reserved for the progeny of the “Muktijodhhas” or Freedom Fighters of the 1971 Liberation War that gave birth to Bangladesh as we know it today.

The main grouse is the continuation of this quota even after 53 years of independence. Government jobs are highly coveted, both for job security and status. Though not entirely similar, it is tempting to compare it with the agitation by students in the 1990s which roiled India, on the reservations in jobs and educational institutions, for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) recommended by the Mandal Commission.

The mounting death toll in violent clashes between the anti and pro-government students’ groups, and between the police and the anti-government protestors, spread across the country like wildfire. This forced a clampdown by the security forces, an imposition of a nationwide curfew, and the deployment of the army to deter further riots. Internet services have been blocked, increasing the public’s frustration and anger. There has been large-scale damage to public and private property. Hasina had to cancel a scheduled visit to Spain and Brazil.  

The normally bustling Dhaka streets have emptied and are being patrolled by the police and army personnel. The only vehicles are armoured personnel carriers, moving along the streets of a mega-capital city with a population of around 20 million. Many countries, including India, have issued advisories, telling their nationals to stay indoors and avoid travel. Citizens of India, Bhutan, Mauritius, and Nepal, the bulk of whom are students, have fled to India via various border checkpoints at Agartala, Changrabanda, and Petrapole. The Dhaka Airport is working more or less normally, at least, according to those reaching India. 

The Protests

The protests by the students were initially peaceful but degenerated into violence after pro-government students, the police, and para-military forces launched a crackdown on the protestors. This fuelled the wave of anger engulfing a section of the population, mainly the middle class. The Supreme Court seized the legal challenge against the quota system after it was upheld by the High Court. This decision sparked latent resentment against quotas which manifested through the demonstrations and subsequent violence.

The quota system reserves government jobs for different categories, in total to the extent of 56 percent, which is seen as excessive and denies those who deserve these based on merit, particularly in an economy in which job opportunities have declined for the youth. The protests are based on long-standing grievances that include manipulation of the quota system to favour supporters of the ruling party, and also the general frustration in competing for the much sought-after government jobs. 

The protest started on 1 July at the elite Dhaka University and then spread to other universities. The ruling Awami League’s student wing, the “Chattra League”, opposed the demonstrations. Clashes ensued, snowballing into violent street battles. The government’s offer to negotiate has been rejected by angry students who have vented their anger on the state TV buildings and police stations. They even set a jail on fire, from which around 1,000 convicts have fled. Police personnel have also suffered injuries and a few fatalities.  

Hasina’s sarcastic public remarks that job reservations have to be for freedom fighters and cannot be for the progeny of “Razakars”, further inflamed the students. "Razakar" is a term meaning traitor; those who collaborated with the genocidal Pakistani army, mainly Urdu-speaking people but also Islamists like the Jamaat-e-Islami [JeI], the leading Islamist party and a cadre-based organisation.

The JeI has a long history of participating in communal riots after Pakistan was created and also after independence. It is regarded as the “fifth column” of Pakistan. The JeI’s stormtroopers are the members of the “Islami Chattra Shibir”. Unverified reports suggest that Shibir cadres have attacked hostels housing Hindu students. 

On the Quota System

The quota system originated in a 1972 policy decision to recognise the sacrifices of freedom fighters and their descendants. In 1997 and 2010, the quota was extended to the children and grandchildren of freedom fighters. Additional quotas for ethnic minorities, women, and people with disability have been implemented during these years. The job quotas in all categories added up to 56 percent. A students’ movement calling for reform began in 2012, prompting the Hasina government to announce that it would not make any changes, leading to resentment.  

In 2014, an organisation called the “Shadharon Chhatra Odhikar Shongrokkhon Parishad” [Bangladesh General Students’ Rights Conservation Council] started a movement to reform the quota system which led to frequent clashes between the pro and anti-quota students. The Hasina government abolished the system altogether in 2018. This order provoked a backlash from pro-quota students who, in 2021, appealed to the High Court.

The reinstated quota system in June 2024 triggered the current round of agitations after which the government appealed to the Supreme Court.  

The protesting students question the official list of freedom fighters issued by the government, saying that it has been manipulated. Given the violent agitation, the government appealed to the Supreme Court to expedite the appeal hearing. The Court delivered its judgment last Sunday. It finally scrapped the High Court order and ruled that henceforth: 

• The quota for freedom fighters and their progeny will be reduced to five percent

• It reduced to one percent the quota for minorities and one percent for others – handicapped, transgenders etc

• 93 percent of recruitment in government jobs will be merit-based

• The government can make minor changes or adjustments to the quotas

The Supreme Court judgment meets the demands of the majority of the student community but the agitation has turned political. Some students have made further demands, like punishing senior policemen who ordered the crackdown, resignations of ministers responsible, and even Hasina’s resignation. She has been called a “dictator”.

Some students have vowed to continue the agitation. Sentiments are running high and will take some time to cool. Students have said that they wanted reforms but not at the cost of so many dead and wounded. 

Expatriate Bangladeshis who support the BNP, led by the UK-based exiled BNP Vice-Chairman Tarique Rahman, who had initiated the unsuccessful “India Out” campaign, have jumped into the fray, sensing an opportunity to whip up opposition against Hasina. 

The Awami League claims that Hasina’s opponents are using this movement as an attractive opportunity to revive their political fortunes. Armed Islamist cadres joined the students to generate violence and demand Hasina’s resignation. The War Crimes Tribunal set up by the Hasina government had convicted the top leadership of the JeI, and many of them were sentenced to death and executed. Hence, the JeI remains Hasina’s sworn enemy.

The JeI has issued a press release condemning the detention of some of their leaders and vowed to continue the agitation. Bangladesh’s sole Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus has issued an appeal calling upon the international community to intervene in order to stop the violence, and initiate an investigation into this “unnecessary carnage” and help restore normalcy. The testy relations between Hasina and Yunus are likely to go further downhill. 

The Road Ahead 

The Bangladeshi government is facing a slowing economy, a fall in forex reserves, high youth unemployment rates which now stand at 15.7 percent, a depreciating value of the Taka and a fall in the country’s main export – ready-made garments – which comprises around 80 percent of the export basket. High levels of corruption, the coddling of some Islamists, and other factors have contributed to the buildup of discontent that found expression in the agitation against the quota system.

India has steadfastly maintained that the agitation is Bangladesh’s internal matter and concentrated on helping its citizens and those of neighbouring countries to move out of the country. There have been expressions of solidarity with the agitation in West Bengal and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has said that she will welcome any refugees. This has predictably invited a riposte from the central government in India, reminding her that she has no locus standi in any matter relating to external affairs. This is politics as usual in India. 

The Hasina government will ride out this crisis. The Opposition has tried to exploit the agitation but it cannot depend on politically non-partisan students who are likely to accept the Supreme Court’s verdict and calm down as time passes. There won't be any revolutionary changes.  

The government has to navigate carefully. It has to officially accept and issue an order implementing the Supreme Court judgment. It has to be sympathetic to the students, extend extra care to the wounded, release detainees and consider extending monetary help to the families of students who died.

(The author is a former Secretary of the Ministry of External Affairs; he has served in three West Asian countries - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel; he is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and a founding Director of DeepStrat, a think tank. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)