Bangladesh Election: Why the Outcome Matters to India's Security

The Hasina government, among other things, has been cooperative in dealing with insurgents in India's northeast.

Sheikh Hasina. Image used for representation only. 

(Photo: PTI)

Earlier this week, two Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami (HuJI) operatives from Bangladesh were sentenced to death for their role in a bomb explosion on the Shramjeevi Express in July 2005. Four other men had been sentenced to life imprisonment on the same case earlier. The explosion in a train in eastern Uttar Pradesh had killed 14 people and wounded over 60.

This is an urgent reminder to us that the elections in Bangladesh on Sunday are not only about the future of its democracy or economic plight. It is about security as well, but not just its own.

Bangladesh, a country of 170 million, is almost completely surrounded by India and has borders with Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, Assam, and West Bengal. In the past, and especially when the country has been ruled by military dictators or the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), separatists and insurgents from India found safe haven. It also provided a spring board for Islamists, both domestic and foreign, for operations in India.

Sheikh Hasina's Government Has Been a Cooperative One

When India looks at Bangladesh, it cannot ignore the fact that during the rule of Sheikh Hasina between 1996- 2001 and then since 2009, it has received cooperation from Bangladeshi security agencies, and efforts have been made to curb anti-India activity in the country.

Behind a lot of the anti-India activity had been the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency which had a free run during the rule of Begun Khaleda Zia’s BNP which was backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami. The HuJI also carried out a series of bomb blasts in Gorakhpur, Lucknow, Faizabad, and Varanasi, and supported the so-called Indian Mujahideen’s bombing campaign in 2008.

The Hasina government was also cooperative in dealing with insurgents in the northeast. In 2015, they handed over Anup Chetia, the founder of the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) along with two other leaders who had served prison terms in Bangladesh.

The scale of the danger posed to India was evident in 2007 when the Border Security Force (BSF) gave their Bangladeshi counterparts a list of 112 separatist rebels from the north-east who were regularly using the latter as a sanctuary. In addition, they provided the Bangladeshis a list of 172 camps run by these separatist groups.

The Islamists, particularly the HuJI, which is ideologically linked to Al Qaeda, has been responsible for a series of terror strikes within Bangladesh as well. In 2000 and again in 2014, they were involved in plots to assassinate Sheikh Hasina. In 2004, HuJI chief Mufti Abdul Hannan led a terror attack on a British envoy. The diplomat escaped, but three policemen were killed.

Islamist and Anti-Indian Elements in Bangladesh

Violence is a feature of Bangladeshi politics, and within this, Islamist violence is a category in itself. Besides the HuJI, there is the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, Bangladesh (JMB) which triggered a series of 459 coordinated bomb blasts across in 63 of 64 districts within a 30 minute period in 2005. The JMB has also operated in India and were responsible for an attack in Bodh Gaya in January 2016 to coincide with the visit of the Dalai Lama.

Perhaps the most spectacular terror attack carried out by the JMB in recent times was on the Holey Artisan Bakery in 2016 which killed 22 civilians, two police officers, and five terrorists. Among those killed were nine Italian, seven Japanese, and one Indian national.

Sheikh Hasina’s tough approach brought a degree of control over the many Islamist and anti-Indian elements in Bangladesh. The US State Department’s Country Reports on Terrorism said that in 2022, “Bangladesh experienced few instances of terrorist violence as authorities continued to pursue militants rigorously,” particularly the al Qaeda-linked groups like the JMB which had now also developed an ISIS offshoot.

The Islamist challenge in Bangladesh is not the only thing that affects Indian security. After all, the country’s location is such that other issues such as its relations with third countries like China, Pakistan, or the US also affect us.

Pakistan, with its support to terrorists and separatists, is now a has-been. The US has backed Bangladesh’s counter-terror agenda by providing training and resources. The US is concerned about the erosion of democracy in Bangladesh, something that bothers India less.

And the China Factor

China, on the other hand, poses significant challenges. Between 2016-2022, Beijing emerged as the largest FDI provider to Bangladesh, having provided some $26 billion worth of investments. Chinese loans have enabled Bangladesh to undertake significant infrastructure schemes such as the bridge over the Padma river and the Karnaphuli under the river tunnel.

China is involved in the construction a dozen highways, 21 bridges, and 27 power plants in the country and its companies plan to have stakes in the new economic zones that Dhaka wants to establish. China is now Bangladesh’s largest trading partner with a trade volume of some $25 billion. Beijing has permitted a duty free regime for 98 per cent of Bangladeshi products like vegetables, frozen and live fish, leather, textiles, paper yard and woven fabrics, garments, and apparel items.

Perhaps more significant is the fact that China is also a significant supplier of military equipment to Bangladesh. Since 2010, more than two-thirds of Bangladesh's arms imports have come from China. Its army is equipped with Chinese tanks, its navy has Chinese frigates and missile boats, and its air force flies Chinese-made fighter jets. In 2013, Dhaka decided to buy two Chinese-made submarines for its Navy and had them construct a naval base to house them.

The real security challenge from the current election is the fact that it will virtually be an uncontested one since the main Opposition party, the BNP, is boycotting it, saying that the ruling Awami League has used its repressive machinery to manipulate its outcome. Instability arising out of the ruling party’s tactics could have consequences.

Once seen as a basket case, Bangladesh is today the world’s second largest garments exporter and has done generally well in terms of its economy. However, since last year, the country has been roiled by economic issues arising from inflation, fuel shortages, and a decline of its foreign exchange reserves that has forced the country to go to the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Continuing protests by garment workers have topped the ever-so-fragile political environment in the country of protests both violent and civil. This has intensified the anti-incumbency environment but with the BNP sitting it out, Sheikh Hasina will be re-elected.

What happens after that will be another story.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)