Could an Indo-Pacific ‘Quad’ Counter China’s Rising Aggression?

As China’s aggression in the region increases, should India accept Australia’s request to join Malabar exercises?

File Photo: An F/A-18 Hornet fighter jet takes off on the US aircraft carrier John C Stennis during Malabar exercises on 15 June 2016. (Photo: Reuters)

As the stand-off between the Chinese and Indian forces continues at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction, Indian, Japanese and American naval forces have begun their 10-day annual Malabar series of naval exercises. The drills, which started out as US-India bilateral exercises in 2007, have involved Japan since 2014. Australia, too, had made a pitch for an observer status during this year’s Malabar exercises but this was turned down by India.

The current transition of power in the Indo-Pacific, underlined by America’s relative decline and China’s growing power, has significant implications for most of the Asian states. Though the uncertainty around the future of international politics, norms and institutions does impinge upon all members of the international society, the Asian states find themselves at the forefront of this transition.

For them, the current transition of power is not only an ideological contest over the form and nature of the international political system, but is inextricably linked to their own national security imperatives in a number of ways. India, Japan and Australia are at the centre of this strategic flux in the Indo-Pacific.

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• For Asian states, the current transition of power in the Indo-Pacific is inextricably linked to their own national security.
• India inviting the Japanese Navy to participate in the annual Malabar exercises in 2014 was a significant move from India’s earlier capitulation to China’s reservations.
• Current trilateral initiatives between India-Japan-USA and US-Japan-Australia have the potential to transform into a ‘quad’ of democracies in the Indo-Pacific.
• India and Australia are leading powers in the Indian Ocean region. The need of the hour is to push for greater engagement with such like-minded nations.
  

Shift from Indian Capitulation to China

The level of strategic convergence between Delhi and Tokyo can be gauged from the fact that in 2014, India invited the Japanese Navy to participate in the annual Malabar exercises with the US Navy in the Pacific waters, reviving an earlier practice of joint India-US-Japan trilateral exercises.

This was a significant move considering the fact that India had earlier capitulated to China’s reservations when the naval forces of India, US, Australia, Singapore and Japan conducted joint exercises in the Bay of Bengal in September 2007. After China made its displeasure clear, India refused to be a part of these exercises from 2008.

With the Modi government, Japan’s participation in Malabar has been institutionalised. Both Japan and US have repeatedly expressed their desire to expand the scope of the Malabar exercise. The vision document, signed by the Modi and Abe in September 2014, called for “regularisation of bilateral maritime exercises as well as to Japan’s continued participation in India”. During the seventh round of the trilateral strategic dialogue between the three countries – held in Honolulu in June 2015 – India agreed to Tokyo’s participation in the 2015 series of Malabar exercises.

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Potential for ‘Quad’ of Democracies

India and Japan have an institutionalised trilateral strategic dialogue partnership with the United States that was initiated in 2011. Maintaining a balance of power in the Asian-Pacific as well as maritime security in Indo-Pacific waters became an important element of this dialogue. A similar dialogue exists between the US, Japan, and Australia. Under Modi, such security trilateralism in Asia has received not only new momentum and is being expanded to incorporate other regional powers. In June 2015, India, Australia and Japan held their first ever high-level dialogue in New Delhi.

These trilateral initiatives have the potential to transform into a ‘quad’ of democracies in the Indo-Pacific region. The roots of this potential partnership were laid in late-2004, when navies from the US, India, Japan, and Australia collaborated in Tsunami relief operations all across the Indian Ocean.

Japan has been the most vocal supporter of such an initiative. In 2007, Abe, in his earlier stint as Prime Minister, lobbied for Asia’s democracies to come together. This was also actively supported by the US. The initiative resulted in a five-nation naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal in September 2007 – codenamed Malabar 07-02. However, perceiving a possible ganging-up of Asia’s democracies, China issued demarches to New Delhi and Canberra, causing this initiative to lose steam, since both Australia and New Delhi felt it unwise to provoke China.

As China becomes more aggressive in the region, there are signs that Australia may be warming up to the idea again.

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Time to Include Australia in Malabar Exercises?

India and Australia are wary of China’s assault on maritime security and freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region. These common concerns have strengthened the need for greater maritime cooperation between the two nations, and the two have started conducting joint naval combat exercises. During Modi’s visit to Australia, a security framework agreement was signed by the two countries, further underscoring the importance of defence cooperation in the Indian Ocean region.

India and Australia are leading powers in the Indian Ocean region. The two countries are also at the helm of Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA) – a formal grouping of the Indian Ocean Littoral States. Australia is also a permanent member of Indian Ocean Naval Symposium which brings together the local navies of Indian Ocean region. The extent of their regional cooperation in Indian Ocean can also be ascertained by their annual trilateral dialogues with countries like Japan and Indonesia.

The need of the hour is to push for greater engagement with such like-minded nations.

Australia has been long keen on joining the Malabar exercises along with the US and Japan. India should favourably consider this request as the idea of an Indo-Pacific democratic quad needs resurrection at the earliest.

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(Harsh V Pant is Distinguished Fellow and Head of Strategic Studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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