6 Questions and Likely Scenarios for AAP With Arvind Kejriwal's Arrest

In Delhi's political arena, AAP faces a complex situation. The possibility of President's Rule could be seen as a strategic manoeuvre, potentially garnering public support for the party.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

Amidst a tempest of political turmoil, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) sails through tumultuous seas, shaken by the arrest of its national convenor and Delhi's Chief Minister (CM), Arvind Kejriwal, in an alleged liquor scandal. As the Lok Sabha elections loom, the party grapples with a profound crisis of leadership. Voices within the party echo conflicting sentiments.

Some advocate for Kejriwal to continue governing Delhi from Tihar jail, a notion fraught with practical and ethical dilemmas. Managing a CM's duties from behind bars challenges the essence of governance and moral integrity.

Amidst uncertainty, questions reverberate through the political corridors. What lies ahead for AAP amidst this trial? What fate awaits Delhi's leadership amidst these turbulent times?

Continuation of Arvind Kejriwal as CM

AAP champions the notion of Arvind Kejriwal retaining his role as Chief Minister. Yet, this vision is contingent upon the acquiescence of the judiciary. Absent this, the Lieutenant Governor could step in, potentially precipitating the government’s collapse—an event that might ripple through AAP, breeding unrest and uncertainty.

Legally, Kejriwal’s tenure as CM is tenable until a conviction is pronounced.

Nonetheless, the practicality and ethics of such a scenario are questionable. Incarceration (even for an under-trial) mandates adherence to the jail’s stringent protocols, which severely restrict interactions with the outside world and the handling of documents, thus complicating and potentially compromising the confidential duties inherent to the Chief Minister’s office.

Without explicit judicial directives and special provisions, Kejriwal’s continued leadership from behind bars seems an implausible proposition.

Prospect of President’s Rule

In Delhi's political arena, AAP faces a complex situation. The possibility of President's Rule could be seen as a strategic manoeuvre, potentially garnering public support for the party. However, this move comes with risks, especially if the BJP strengthens its position in the Lok Sabha, leading to a focused effort to undermine AAP during Kejriwal's absence.

Under Article 239AA, the Lieutenant Governor (LG) of Delhi has the authority to impose President's Rule if the state machinery fails to fulfil its duties. This legal route is typically reserved for situations where governance breaks down.

If Kejriwal continues as Chief Minister from custody, the LG might cite a constitutional crisis, given Delhi's unique administrative setup, as justification for such a drastic step. Additionally, the BJP has lodged a complaint with the LG regarding Kejriwal's functioning as CM from ED custody.

Sunita Kejriwal as Potential CM?

In the unfolding political drama of Delhi, the narrative takes a familiar turn reminiscent of Bihar’s past. The conviction of Lalu Prasad Yadav once led to the ascension of his wife, Rabri Devi, to the chief ministerial throne, setting a precedent that echoes through the halls of power today.

With Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest, the air is thick with speculation, fueled by Sunita Kejriwal’s poignant address to the nation—a recitation of her husband’s heartfelt words from confinement. On Wednesday, she once again spoke to the public, illustrating Arvind's situation in jail and mentioning that he would reveal the money trail of the liquor scam in front of the court on March 28, the reason for his arrest.

The corridors of Delhi buzz with the possibility of Sunita Kejriwal stepping into the chief ministerial role, a move fraught with potential fallout.

AAP, long celebrated for its departure from dynastic politics, risks tarnishing its image should it embrace a familial succession. Such a shift could cast a shadow of nepotism over the party’s legacy, aligning it with the very practices it has vociferously opposed.

Moreover, within AAP’s ranks, a legion of dedicated leaders has emerged, their commitment to the party’s cause unwavering. Elevating Sunita Kejriwal to the apex of Delhi’s governance might inadvertently sow seeds of discord among these stalwarts, breeding a climate of insecurity at a juncture when unity is paramount.

In this delicate moment, as Kejriwal faces his legal battles and the party’s leadership is scattered, the spectre of internal strife looms large. The BJP, vigilant and strategic, stands ready to capitalise on any fissure within AAP. The party’s next move could either fortify its foundations or invite its fragmentation, a decision that holds the potential to reshape Delhi’s political destiny.

Leadership Alternatives

Amidst the recent turmoil within AAP, the issue of leadership emerges as a critical concern. With uncertainty surrounding Arvind Kejriwal's tenure as Chief Minister, the party faces the imperative of finding stability and continuity from within. The potential elevation of leaders like Atishi to the Chief Minister's role could offer a ray of hope for AAP.

Atishi, a prominent figure in the party renowned for her contributions to education reform, embodies the progressive ideals that AAP espouses. Endorsement from Manish Sisodia, even amid his incarceration, would lend her considerable political weight and signify a unified front. Additionally, Health Minister Saurabh Bhardwaj is another notable contender in the CM race.

Alternatively, if AAP opts not to appoint a CM directly, the role of Deputy Chief Minister, though not constitutionally defined, presents an opportunity to showcase the party's depth of leadership. Atishi and Saurabh Bhardwaj could jointly assume responsibilities, ensuring continuity in governance. Their combined expertise and commitment could guide AAP through these challenging times.

Such a move would not only sustain governance momentum but also underscore AAP's commitment to meritocracy over dynastic politics. It would convey a clear message that the party comprises capable individuals beyond its top leadership, ready to serve the public diligently.

Gopal Rai as CM?

Rai's potential rise to the top could prove pivotal for AAP, uniting its diverse factions under his organisational acumen. Unlike traditional ministers, Rai's identity isn't solely defined by his environmental portfolio; rather, it's shaped by his closeness to Kejriwal and Sisodia, his oratory skills, and his history in student and trade union politics.

His commitment to AAP runs deep, rooted in his founding member status and role as Delhi unit organiser. Rai embodies the party's ethos, understanding its organisational intricacies at a fundamental level. His grassroots connection isn't just about familiarity; it mirrors the people's struggles and aspirations for better governance.

Choosing Rai could strategically fortify AAP, ensuring its relevance and vitality in politics. It aligns with the party's values, promising continuity and stability while ushering in a new leadership era. With Rai, AAP doesn't just gain a leader; they find a reflection of their past, present, and future potential.

Potential for Internal Dissent

The party is also facing internal dissent and external challenges. For example, the recent activities of Raghav Chadha in London, amidst allegations of a liquor scam, have fueled speculation about the party’s unity. In the alleged liquor scam, he is the only leader who is yet to be arrested. Chadha’s unarrested status does little to quell the rumours of a potential split, spearheaded by influential figures within the party. The durability of such leadership remains a question mark.

These rumours may be unfounded. However, in the current landscape of Indian politics, splits and controversies are often so conspicuous that even the slightest rumour can sow seeds of insecurity among both party members and outsiders. This vulnerability underscores the delicate state of affairs within the party.

Amidst this turmoil, it’s crucial to consider the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) historical tactics of destabilising opposition parties, as seen with Shiv Sena and NCP. This pattern suggests that the threats to AAP’s solidarity may not be purely internal.

In light of these challenges, the imperative for AAP is clear: establish a robust succession plan for Arvind Kejriwal.

The party’s survival hinges on a centralised leadership structure that can withstand both the pressures of internal strife and external aggression. Kejriwal’s potential incarceration could serve as a unifying force, but only if there’s a clear, authoritative figure ready to steer the party through the storm.

AAP’s response to these challenges will not only shape its future but also signal to the electorate its capacity for governance amidst adversity. The party must swiftly and decisively address these issues, crafting a narrative of resilience and continuity that resonates with its base and the broader public. The time for fragmented leadership has passed; AAP’s next steps will determine its trajectory in India’s political arena.

[The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a columnist (He tweets at @sayantan_gh.) This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.]