6 More Years for Vladimir Putin. What it Means for India-Russia Ties

Recently, there have been long-term developments that could transform the India-Russia relationship.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

(Photo: PTI)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been returned to power for another term in what a critic sarcastically termed “a landslide” election.

Putin reportedly won more than 87 per cent of the votes, which is the highest he has won in comparison to the four previous elections he has been involved in. In 2012, Putin received 63.6 per cent of the vote and in 2018, it was 76.7 per cent. The somewhat improbable number touching 90 per cent is a sign that the Russian system is now fully autocratic. His fifth term will end in 2030.

Western countries had already dismissed the election result as a sham, but following the verdict, countries like China, India and North Korea congratulated Putin. In a message, PM Modi said he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi’s “time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.”

After the vote, Putin had a late-night press conference in which he said that among his priorities was the successful prosecution of the “special military operation”—the Russian term for its military attack—against Ukraine. In response to a question, he warned that a direct conflict between Russia and the US-led NATO alliance would bring the world one step closer to World War III and that no one wanted such a scenario.

Putin’s message was that he needed to win big to lead the process of transforming Russia, winning the war in Ukraine and taking on the West in a global confrontation. Another major task before him is to pivot Russia’s economy away from the Euro-Atlantic region towards the east and the south.

What Does Putin’s Victory Mean for India?

At one level, nothing much, as our relations with Russia have always been good and remain so. But at another level, a lot. A feature of the Russia-India relationship has been that while it was strong on the military-trade front, it was anaemic on the side of commercial trade. The Ukraine war has had a transformative effect on this aspect.

At the political level, even as Western countries have sought to isolate Russia, India has made efforts to accommodate it. The leaders of the two sides continue to engage with each other and in mid-January, Modi and Putin had a telephone call discussing Ukraine and wishing each other well for their respective national elections.

The Western embargo on Russia has led to it seeking markets in the global south. According to calculations, 80 per cent of the countries of the world do not follow the Western sanctions. Among these is India which has taken the opportunity to import large quantities of Russian oil for domestic use, as well as re-export after refining. Paradoxically, this is happening at a time when our arms imports from Russia are declining, both out of choice, as well as compulsion as the Russians prioritise their defence production for the Ukraine war.

Just how recent this change has come about is evident from the fact that bilateral trade between Russia and India in 2021-22 was $13 billion. By 2022-23 it shot up to $49.36 billion, mainly on account of Indian oil imports. In the 2023-24 period alone, it is expected to reach $65 billion. India’s exports to Russia, though growing, are still just $4 billion and is an area that has huge growth potential. Russian economic ties with India can expand from traditional exports to automotive and electronic parts or renewables, alongside India’s emergence as a manufacturing hub, trading powerhouse, and services supplier.

India-Russia Ties With Respect To Defence and Trade

In the defence sector, while India is making efforts to emerge as an aatmanirbhar producer, there are important areas where Russia remains relevant. These are mainly strategic programmes relating to nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, as well as nuclear-propelled submarines.

Beyond the immediate, there have been long-term developments that could transform the India-Russia relationship. One is the Eastern Maritime Corridor (EMC) which could be used for trade in coking coal, crude oil, LNG, and fertilisers. The West Asia crisis has resulted in a sharp rise of 40-60 per cent in shipping expenses and this is where the EMC which links Chennai with Vladivostok comes in. In September 2019 Modi and Putin formally launched the corridor during their annual summit in Vladivostok.

Another important connectivity project where some developments are taking place is the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). This connects India’s western ports with Bandar Abbas and Chah Bahar in Iran and thence moves north through the Caucasus to Russia and Europe.

Though several test runs have proved the viability of the corridor, the low level of India-Russia trade has led to its neglect. In addition, there are portions of the corridor which are not complete. Therefore, India has been looking at alternatives such as the US-helmed India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) linking Indian ports to the Israeli port of Haifa and thence to Europe. But the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised a big question mark before this project.

Meanwhile, driven by its own compulsions, the Russians are now pivoting south. Strategically this has meant building up a special relationship with Iran. And as part of this, they are also interested in boosting the INSTC. A key part of this now is the 162 km railway project linking Rasht in Iran with Astara in Azerbaijan. This way, Russia will access Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf, thus providing easier access to its trade to ports on India’s west coast as well. It will also assist Russia’s trade with China and Turkey.

Another Russian pivot has been to the East which is to China. In 2023, China’s trade with Russia hit $240 billion, setting a new record. This was a growth of 64 per cent compared with 2021, before the Ukraine war. China has been a major destination of Russian oil since it was hit by Western sanctions. In turn, Moscow has stepped up the import of Chinese consumer goods ranging from cars to smartphones. Beijing intends to expand energy cooperation with Russia across the board and the two sides have initiated trade in Chinese yuan. Chinese exports have helped Russia stabilise its external trade relationship.

The Challenges for India

For India, the challenge is to balance its growing strategic relationship with both the US and Russia. The Indo-US relationship increasingly involves co-production and co-development of technology products, as well as a larger Indo-Pacific congruence in balancing China. It is keenly aware that a shift away from Russia would only increase Beijing’s influence over Moscow.

Some of this has to do with ongoing defence collaboration, and some of it is related to its larger perspective of preferring a multipolar world, something that Russia also advocates. So meanwhile, even though it called off the annual consultations with Russia in 2022 and 2023, India has formally maintained good political ties with it.

Given the fact that Russia is involved in the war in Ukraine, a lot of Putin’s future policies depend on its outcome. Western sanctions may not have worked the way intended, but the war has caused deep damage to Russia.

The future is also clouded because of the presidential elections in the US. The election of Donald Trump could alter the situation in unforeseen ways. As for India, its approach may be seen as cynical by some, but in a world where countries are privileging their respective national interests, Indian policy, too, is following suit.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)