Understanding the BSP and Mayawati's Inexorable Decline

Multiple factors precipitated the precipitous decline of the party helmed by India’s most eminent Dalit leader.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party Chief Mayawati.

(Photo: PTI)

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), founded on 14 April 1984, by the Kanshi Ram popularly known as Manyavar or Bahujan Nayak, was conceived to champion the cause of the Bahujans—Dalits, Adivasis, OBCs, and religious minorities. The BSP's raison d'être was to dismantle the entrenched socio-political hegemony marginalising these communities.

Mayawati, Kanshi Ram's acolyte, quickly ascended within the party’s echelons. Her political acumen saw her helm the Uttar Pradesh (UP) government four times. The BSP’s meteoric rise began in the late 1980s. In the 1989 Lok Sabha elections, the party secured 3 seats, marking its electoral advent. By 1993, the BSP had forged a coalition with the Samajwadi Party (SP), catapulting Mayawati to her first, albeit ephemeral, Chief Ministerial tenure in 1995.

The zenith of the BSP’s political journey was the 2007 UP Assembly elections, where it clinched an absolute majority with 206 out of 403 seats, garnering 30.43 percent of the vote share. This triumph was attributed to Mayawati’s deft strategy of uniting Dalits, Brahmins, and other communities—a political tapestry that resonated profoundly.

However, the BSP’s ascendancy was followed by an inexorable descent. In the 2012 UP Assembly elections, the party’s seat count plummeted to 80, with a vote share of 25.91 percent. The nadir came in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, where the BSP failed to secure a single seat. The 2017 UP Assembly elections exacerbated this decline, with the BSP winning a mere 19 seats and 22.23 percent of the votes. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, despite an alliance with SP, yielded only 10 seats, and that too because of a very smooth transfer of SP votes to the BSP which didn’t work the other way around.

The 2022 UP Assembly elections underscored the BSP’s precipitous decline, securing just 1 seat with a vote share of 12.88 percent. This dramatic electoral downturn signifies a profound exigency for introspection and reinvention. One might surmise that 2022 marked the nadir of BSP’s chronicles, yet that assumption would be erroneous.

The 2024 Lok Sabha results have inflicted irreparable damage upon the party, rendering it beyond the cusp of revival. Not only did the BSP fail to secure a single seat, but for the first time, its vote share dwindled to a single digit. The party’s predicament is starkly illustrated by the fact that the Congress, contesting merely 17 seats, garnered more votes than the BSP, which contested 79 seats (excluding Bareilly, where the BSP candidate’s nomination was rejected).

It also did not secure a second position in any constituency across the state. On 77 seats, it languished in third place, and on two seats—Nagina and Doomariyaganj—it faced an even more ignominious fate, finishing fourth.

A meticulous examination of the data unveils an even grimmer scenario for the BSP. Of the 79 seats it contested, it managed to save its deposit in just 10 constituencies: Ambedkar Nagar, Azamgarh, Banda, Bijnor, Dhaurahra, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Ghosi, Hathras, Lalganj, and Mathura. The party’s vote share failed to reach 25 percent in any constituency, with the highest being a mere 23.54 percent in Banda. 

A multitude of factors precipitated the precipitous decline of the party helmed by India’s most eminent Dalit leader and four-time Chief Minister of the state. Foremost among these was the party’s inertia in adapting to the evolving political milieu of the state. The electoral landscape, both within the state and nationally, has metamorphosed into a predominantly bipolar arena, leaving scant room for a tertiary contender. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, seizing the moment with alacrity, adapted swiftly to the new paradigm, further constricting the Bahujan Samaj Party's foothold.

To its merit, even amidst its waning influence, the party's loyal electorate steadfastly supported it through the 2012 assembly elections, the 2014 Lok Sabha, the 2017 assembly elections, and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, this allegiance did not translate into seat victories due to the evolving electoral dynamics. It was only after the 2022 assembly elections that the party's vote share markedly plummeted. The 2024 elections inflicted additional damage, reducing the party’s vote share to a paltry 9.39 percentage points, further dashing hopes of a resurgence.

Another factor that exacerbated the party’s misfortune was its conspicuous silence against the ruling BJP, with any criticisms it did voice being notably subdued. The sole instance of a vehement critique from the BSP emerged during the recent Lok Sabha polls, delivered by Akash Anand (Mayawati’s nephew), who was subsequently dismissed for his remarks. When the opposition rallied around the issue of "Saving the Constitution" a campaign designed to court Dalit voters (the BSP’s vote bank), the BSP's deafening silence only served to bolster the Samajwadi Party, enabling it to attract those disillusioned voters into its embrace.

Various other factors also contributed to the party's decline, including the exodus of its stalwart leaders like Lalji Verma, Ram Achal Rajbhar, Kunwar Danish Ali, Tribhuvan Dutt, Ritesh Pandey, and RK Chaudhary, to name a few. The weakening of its organisational structure, lack of a robust cadre, and the inability to effectively communicate with voters or provide them with reassurance further compounded the issue. Additionally, the party's diminished presence on the ground and its failure to present a compelling narrative eroded its support base.

Mayawati and the BSP, once the harbingers of Dalit empowerment, now face an existential challenge. The party's future hinges on its ability to rejuvenate its ideological core and reconnect with its estranged electorate.

(Syed Kamran is a Lucknow-based commentator. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)