Muizzu Visits Modi: The Maldives Can't Really Exit India's Sphere of Influence

New Delhi, unlike Beijing, is a natural partner that believes in a win-win strategy.

Muizzu and Modi.

(Photo: X/@narendramodi)

Maldivian President Mohammad Muizzu recently concluded a five-day visit to India on 11 October. This was the first state visit by Muizzu to India after taking office in November last year, though he visited India for the swearing-in ceremony in June. Muizzu had won the presidential election riding on the ‘India Out’ campaign and had focussed on strengthening ties with China.

He even went to Turkey in December last year on his first official visit and visited China in January, during which both sides signed around 20 agreements focussing on various sectors. As a result, India-Maldives relations hit quite a low last year.

Muizzu's government also pushed India to withdraw its military personnel from the country. The situation further deteriorated after some Maldivian diplomats engaged in anti-India and anti-Modi rhetoric.

As a show of anger and retaliation, Indian people started boycotting tourism in the Maldives (which is one-third of its GDP), with the Indian government showing its inclination to develop the Lakshadweep Islands as an alternative. Between January and August 2024, there was a 40 percent decrease in the number of Indian tourists.

Muizzu's visit to India is an attempt by Male to balance its relations between New Delhi and Beijing. He met with the Indian president, the prime minister, the external affairs minister and other high-level dignitaries. He also visited the Taj Mahal. Prime Minister Modi, who said that the relationship between India and Maldives is centuries old, was even invited to visit the Maldives next year, which has been accepted by the Indian side.

The Maldives has been facing major financial challenges, and its foreign reserves hit a low of 440 million dollars, which would cover the country’s expenses for just six weeks. In addition to investing in infrastructure projects like bridges, roads, schools, etc, India has agreed to extend financial support of around 700 million dollars.

As per the official statement, New Delhi will extend “financial support to the island nation amounting to $400 million under the US Dollar/ Euro Swap Window and ₹30 billion or $357 million under the INR Swap Window”. In addition, both sides are looking to begin discussion on a free trade agreement.

Muizzu has also expressed his confidence in India's support. He stated, “India is fully cognisant of our fiscal situation, and as one of our biggest development partners, will always be ready to ease our burden, find better alternatives and solutions to the challenges we face.”

It also highlights the challenges that smaller nations are facing vis-à-vis Chinese investments. The Maldives is a signatory to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and owes China around 1.3 billion dollars. China has also invested in a number of infrastructure projects and also has a defence agreement with the Maldives. In the last few years, the question of debt has become central to China-Maldives relations and a cause of concern for the smaller countries in the Indian Ocean region.

In an attempt to counter these narratives right after Muizzu’s visit to India, the Global Times published an article praising China's role in the Maldives. It quoted the newly appointed Maldivian Ambassador to China, Fazeel Najeeb, arguing, “Influence is a subjective term, and every country has some degree of influence on another, whether economically, financially, culturally, or traditionally”. A clear attempt to paint China as a benign power.

The investments have been followed by the regular docking of Chinese ships at Maldivian ports — a cause of concern for New Delhi. India has been worried about the reconnaissance and data collected by Beijing, as it directly impacts the preparedness and security of India's naval forces. And Beijing has been able to undertake such acts given its increasing financial clout over the Maldivian government.

This visit, however, shows that even though Muizzu garners domestic support for the ‘India Out’ campaign, the Maldives can't move out of India's sphere of influence. New Delhi has shown its commitment to helping the smaller nations in the region, even though the Maldives has been tilting towards China.

It indicates that when the smaller nations are in need, they will look to New Delhi for help. Chinese investments are attractive as Beijing harps on a non-interventionist policy. But when the time comes, Beijing will use its leverage to extend its own agenda, as seen in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan. What matters for China is the security of its investments and how much it can benefit from them.

Beijing will always remain an external power. New Delhi, on the other hand, is a natural partner that believes in a win-win strategy.

(Dr Gunjan Singh is an Associate Professor at Jindal Law School, OP Jindal Global University. Her research interests are in the fields of Chinese Foreign Policy, China-South Asia Relations, Domestic Politics in China, Chinese Media, Mainland-Taiwan Relations and Space Security. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)