Canadian Byelections, Jagmeet Singh's Exit: A Turning Point for Trudeau Govt?

The Justin Trudeau-led Liberal Party lost their stronghold in Montreal – adding another blow to the embattled PM.

Jagmeet Singh (left) and Justin Trudeau. 

(Photo: Altered by The Quint)

A fortnight after a big political setback to the ruling Justin Trudeau-led Liberal government with New Democratic Party (NDP) leader and Indian-origin politician Jagmeet Singh withdrawing support, another major blow came the prime minister's way as his party lost Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun seat in Quebec – a Liberal stronghold – to the Bloc Quebecois Party in a byelection held on Monday, 16 September.

On the other hand, Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona seat in the Manitoba province was retained by the NDP.

With Trudeau's declining approval ratings, the byelections were a litmus test for him as well as other Canadian leaders. The timing of the polls, soon after Singh's decision to withdraw support alleging that the Canadian prime minister was not "delivering" on his promises, had made the contests even more interesting.

What's Behind Jagmeet Singh's Withdrawal of Support? 

The principal reason behind Singh's decision to withdraw support from the 'supply-and-confidence' deal on 5 September is the vast unpopularity of 52-year-old Trudeau as highlighted by abysmal approval ratings.

According to a recent Abacus survey, Trudeau and his Liberals were trailing Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives by a staggering 20 points. Further, 59 percent of the people surveyed said that they had a negative opinion of Trudeau.

"It's difficult to criticise a government’s decisions while simultaneously keeping it in power," Xavier Delgado, Research Associate at the Canada Institute, told The Quint.

"Surging support for the Conservatives has been tied to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the post-COVID economy, and the NDP has struggled to separate itself from the Liberals while maintaining their support through the 'supply-and-confidence' agreement."

Xavier Delgado

Of late, Canada's economy has been nosediving on the back of high unemployment rates, a severe crunch in housing, and high prices at grocery stores – with many pointing the finger at Trudeau and his government.

Singh and Trudeau had inked the 'supply-and-confidence' agreement in March 2022 – a pact that was due to expire in June 2025, just shy of the October election. It is a deal wherein a minority government i.e., one that does not have an outright majority in Parliament, receives support from one or more parties on the passage of bills, including the Budget, confidence votes et al.

The Sikh leader had taken to X to announce his withdrawal of support, saying that the Liberals had "let people down" and "don't deserve another chance from Canadians". In response, Trudeau said that Singh was "caving in to political pressure" and accused the leader of "walking away from progressive values".

Meanwhile, the opposition Conservatives had constantly been attacking both the Liberals and NDP over the economic downturn – thus portraying a public image that both parties share equal blame. Hence, Singh's decision was likely an attempt to disassociate himself from the government in order to shore up his chances ahead of the next federal election.

"The Conservatives have been quite successful at linking the NDP to the unpopular Liberal government. In fact, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre routinely references the 'Liberal/NDP government'. Accordingly, the NDP seems to have concluded that there were mostly political downsides to sustaining the agreement," Roy Norton, Fellow at the Balsillie School of International Affairs, said while speaking to The Quint.

Similarly, despite having an alliance the two parties had been at loggerheads over several policy issues. Just last month, the Liberal government had initiated efforts to resolve a major dispute with labour unions that had halted national rail transport as well as a concomitant portion of international trade.

The intervention, however, did not go down well with Singh's NDP – a socialist party which counts labour issues among its topmost priorities. Singh had also slammed the government for imposing binding arbitration on the union and two rail companies.

"With his decision to withdraw support, Singh and his party can now more freely criticise the ruling Liberal minority without having to defend their decision to keep the government in power," Delgado said.

Will Canada See Early Elections? 

Following the disruption of the Liberal-NDP alliance, Trudeau's party has 154 members in Canada's House of Commons – 15 below the majority mark of 169. The Liberals had been leading a minority government with the help of the NDP thus far.

However, there are speculations that an election earlier than the deadline of October 2025 could be held – either triggered by a no-confidence motion against the government or if the Liberal Party itself decides to dissolve Parliament.

With the NDP backing out, Trudeau's party is on shaky ground as far as a no-confidence vote is concerned. If at least 170 Opposition MPs vote against the Liberals, the government would fall ahead of the completion of its term – thus triggering a fresh election.

"There are multiple factors at play here. The Conservatives will almost certainly prefer an election sooner rather than later given the strength of their polling numbers across the country," Delgado says.

He adds, however, that the NDP's withdrawal from the supply and confidence agreement does not guarantee that they would support a Conservative-led effort to bring down the government.

This is because the NDP – which is a left-leaning party – is not likely to extend support to the Conservatives due to dozens of policy differences.

Singh's comments following his departure from the government lend credence to this theory. "The Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to stop the Conservatives and their plans to cut. But the NDP can," Singh had said in a video message.

"Without the NDP's support, the Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois, and Green Party do not collectively have the numbers to trigger an early election," Delgado said.

Further, uncertainty regarding the timing of the election also means that Trudeau's political future is secure at least for now. Over the last few months, the prime minister had been facing pressure from within his party to announce that he would not lead the Liberals into the next election.

"It was easier for Liberals to contemplate replacing him if they had more than six months to do so; it's harder if they don't know whether or not there'll be an election in two-months-time," Norton says.

Allegations of 'Arm-Twisting' Over Khalistan Issue

During the 2.5-year alliance between Trudeau and Singh, many had speculated that the former was "arm-twisted" into taking a pro-Khalistan and anti-India stance on a number of issues due to Singh's vocal support for Sikh extremism.

The allegations were emphasised further when Trudeau in September 2023 publicly alleged that the Indian government played role in the killing of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil in June that year.

Following Trudeau's allegations, Singh had taken to social media to slam the Indian government, saying that he would "leave no stone unturned in the pursuit of justice, including holding Narendra Modi accountable".

However, members of the Indian community in Canada feel that the accusations are not based on concrete evidence and had been propped up as an electoral ploy.

"Many within the community view these accusations against India as unsubstantiated and politically motivated, detracting from the broader goal of fostering positive and constructive bilateral ties," Parmod Chhabra, president of the India Canada Association in Ottawa, told The Quint.

Leader of the Opposition in Canada Pierre Poilievre had also recently condemned Trudeau, saying that he had facilitated pro-Khalistan sentiments in the country. He made these comments the backdrop of a Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) rally in August during which slogans were raised calling for Canadian Hindus to "go back" to India.

"Hindus have the right to worship, to raise their families, to live in peace, without intimidation or threat," Poilievre had said while addressing the press on Friday, 13 September. "Anti-Hindu and Hinduphobia agendas have no place in Canada. I detest how the prime minister has divided our people. We were getting along in this country. Now look, everybody is fighting."

However, experts in Canada dismiss allegations of 'arm-twisting', saying that Trudeau's tirade against India was largely backed by Canadians.

"It’s highly unlikely that Ottawa’s response to the killing and the Indian government’s alleged involvement was a result of inter-party politics; in fact, the government’s response to the incident was widely supported by the Canadian public," Delgado said.

Similarly, Norton said that the Liberal Party is "highly attentive" to what it believes to be the interests and objectives of Sikh-Canadians and needed no arm twisting by the NDP to arrive at its posture.

"That said, the Liberal Party is also highly alert to the standing that Jagmeet Singh has among Sikhs living in Canada, or some of them anyway. Accordingly, especially with an election approaching, I think you can count on the Liberals allowing no distance whatsoever between their positions on issues of particular interest to Sikh-Canadians and what they understand to be the positions on those issues of Mr Singh and his party."

Roy Norton