Why S Jaishankar's Islamabad Visit Could Be a Great Boon to India-Pakistan Ties

Jaishankar's trip to Pakistan for the SCO meeting on 15 Oct will mark the first by an Indian minister in 10 years.

Image used for representation only. S Jaishankar is attending the SCO Heads of Government meeting in Islamabad from 15-16 October. 

(Photo: PTI)

"There is a definite relook of ties afoot, if not softening," says Pakistan expert Lt Gen (Retd) Bhopinder Singh while speaking about External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Islamabad on Tuesday, 15 October for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Heads of Government meeting, where he is expected to rub shoulders with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Politicians, pundits, and locals on either side of the border will wait with bated breath to see whether the visit will bear any desired fruit which could potentially lead to the resumption of ties between the two neighbours.

While both Jaishankar and Dar have said that a bilateral meeting is not on the cards, with Jaishankar unequivocally putting down speculation saying that he was going there just as a "good member" of the SCO, optimists are hopeful of 'feelers' being sent from either side to engage in a meeting behind the scenes to begin the process of engaging in diplomatic and economic cooperation.

Optimists vs Pessimists: Which Side Will Win?

Irrespective of the shortness of the duration of Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan, the visit itself is of great significance – seeing as ties have perhaps reached their lowest point, barring the periods that saw wars between the two neighbours.

"The significance of the visit is obviously beyond the stated claim of not engaging with Islamabad bilaterally, as the visit by the EAM is a visit, whatever be the stated objective," says Lt Gen (Retd) Singh while speaking to The Quint.

"From the prism of ‘normalising’ – as much as realistically possible without expecting too much or putting on blinkers – it should be welcomed," he added.

Jaishankar's trip will mark the first by a Union Minister to the country in almost a decade. The last such visit was by former EAM Sushma Swaraj in December 2015.

Ties between India and Pakistan have been on a downward trend since 2016, particularly since Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks in Pathankot (January 2016), Uri (September 2016), and Pulwama (February 2019). India's decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019 also dented the relationship considerably, as it led to a complete halt to trade and cross-border bus and train services.

Thus, given the atmosphere of hostility in the last decade or so, Jaishankar's visit could mark the beginning of a fresh start.

What makes this trip even more significant is that it is emblematic of an atmosphere of reciprocity. Pakistan's then Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari had visited Goa in 2023 to attend an SCO conclave – marking the first by a senior Pakistani leader to India in 12 years.

"Given the current environment, the Indian government's decision to send Mr Jaishankar to Islamabad is itself a big deal," says Pakistan-based journalist Azaz Syed, who is covering the SCO meeting in Islamabad. "While I don't think something very big will happen at this juncture, the visit will certainly add value so that at some later stage ties can be improved."

Does Keeping a Diplomatic 'Distance' Help Both India & Pakistan? 

While there have been repeated demands by traders, businessmen, and locals alike from both sides of the Line of Control (LoC) to engage economically, the governments of both India and Pakistan have opted to maintain a certain 'distance' from each other as they believe doing so might help them politically.

For instance, playing the 'nationalism' card has been an essential segment of the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) electoral ammunition ahead of general elections. In the run-up to the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeatedly invoked Pakistan and cross-border terrorism, going to the extent of saying that India would enter the homes of its enemies to kill them.

"This is naya Bharat. Ghar mein ghus ke maarega," Modi had said at an election rally in Karnataka's Bagalkot in April, just ahead of the 2024 general elections.

Similarly, several analysts had stated that India's airstrikes in Pakistan's Balakot following a suicide attack in J&K's Pulwama by a Jaish-e-Mohammed militant had given the BJP an 'edge' in the 2019 polls. In fact, a pre-election survey conducted by Lokniti in March 2019 had predicted that the Balakot airstrikes were among three decisions taken by the Modi government between 7 January and 26 February of that year that had the ability to change the course of the election.

In a similar vein, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif has on multiple occasions brought up India's actions in Jammu and Kashmir following the revocation of Article 370, saying that the Modi government was "subjugating" Indian Muslims and taking strides to "obliterate India's Islamic heritage".

While addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York on 28 September this year, Sharif had even likened J&K to Palestine.

"Like the people of Palestine, the people of Jammu and Kashmir too have struggled for a century for their freedom and right to self-determination,” he said, adding, "In a classic settler colonial project, India is seizing Kashmiri lands and properties and settling outsiders into occupied Jammu and Kashmir in their nefarious design to transform the Muslim majority into a minority."

Similarly, instead of acknowledging its own shortcomings responsible for the decades-long upheaval in the Balochistan province, Pakistan has over the years alleged India's hand in fomenting separatist sentiments in the region.

"Both the governments of India and Pakistan are walking on a political tightrope domestically. So, while there is a great demand for resumption of ties, when we speak of options there are very few," Syed told The Quint.

Why SCO Matters for India

Meanwhile, many have raised questions about why the Indian government confirmed their participation in the SCO meeting in Islamabad, but still refuses to participate in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) meetings – the last of which was held in 2014 in Nepal.

When asked about the same at a recent press briefing, Jaishankar said that India's rejection of the SAARC Summit being held in Pakistan was only due to the latter's support for cross-border terrorism.

“We have not had a meeting of SAARC for a very simple reason, that there is one member of SAARC who is practising cross-border terrorism [Pakistan], at least against one more member [India]," he had said while addressing the press on 5 October.

Wouldn't travelling to Pakistan for the SCO meeting fall in the same category as that of SAARC? No, because geopolitical considerations take precedence over nationalism when it comes to the SCO.

This is because India has an independent and relatively strong relationship with each member of SAARC, barring Pakistan, and can carry on diplomatic ties with them even without meeting under the auspices of the grouping.

The SCO, however, is another ballgame altogether, as it includes China, Russia, Iran and Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – countries with which India has been attempting to expand its economic footprint.

India fears are that if it does not participate in SCO meetings, the security grouping's members – particularly Iran and Central Asian countries – could come under China's thumb completely.

For instance, New Delhi faced a massive setback after Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan joined Beijing's multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) between 2013 and 2015, with Tajikistan later following suit. Hence, left to Chinese influence, the SCO's smaller members could move further and further away from India – thus reducing its geographical clout in Asia.

That explains why India decided to participate in the meeting despite the impediment of it being held in Pakistan.

Experts, however, say that if both sides play their cards right, this impediment could actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

"⁠Economic benefits are obvious and a desperate concern for Pakistan; additionally given the ensuing cost of terrorism, diplomatic isolation and socio-economic distress already stressing the country. There is an upside in ‘normalisation’ than by retaining the status quo ante of freeze. From an Indian perspective, too, there is a change in the lay of the land in Pakistan with radicals on the back foot. So, the ground situation is ripe to pluck its own low-hanging fruits."

Lt Gen (Retd) Bhopinder Singh