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Central Asia and the South Caucasus have long been within Russia’s geopolitical orbit. But as the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine stumbles on, Turkey is looking to take advantage by increasing its influence in the strategically important regions.
Turkey’s ties to Turkmenistan are particularly important. Despite not being a member of the Organization of Turkic States – an influential regional grouping of Turkic-speaking countries – Turkmenistan plays a key role in Ankara’s Central Asia strategy.
As Erdogan put it bluntly last month, “I hope that Turkmen gas will soon begin to flow to Turkey through the Caspian Sea.”
Despite being one of the world’s most isolated regimes, Turkmenistan ranks fourth globally for natural gas reserves after Russia, Iran, and Qatar.
Although China is the main buyer of Turkmen gas at the moment, Ankara aims to start purchasing energy from the former Soviet republic to help turn Turkey into a regional gas hub.
Here’s how that would work:
While the Kremlin supports this idea in principle – especially given that it can no longer supply Europe with natural gas via the Nord Stream pipelines – Turkey’s energy strategy has drawn some Russian opposition.
Most notable is Senator Alexander Bashkin, who wrote recently that Moscow would not allow construction of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, an essential part of any future linkage to Turkey. Bashkin blamed environmental concerns for his stance, but the geopolitical subtext was clear.
Hypothetically, Moscow could offer its own gas pipelines to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan for exporting gas to Europe.
But given Russia’s isolation in the global arena, and the fact that President Vladimir Putin has turned his country into a pariah-state, it’s doubtful that the former Soviet Central Asian republics would be willing to do business with the Kremlin.
Thus, Ankara will almost certainly continue expanding energy ties with Turkmenistan, without fear of Russian retaliation.
While energy and economic interests are driving Turkey’s strategy in the post-Soviet space, Erdogan will undoubtedly continue emphasizing the importance of pan-Turkism, given that most Turkic nations share historical, ethnic, and cultural ties with Turkey.
Pan-Turkism helps Turkey further its ambitious goals in the Eurasian heartland – namely, to compete with Russia and China in the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea.
Turkey was the first country in the world to recognize the independence of the former Soviet Central Asian republics in the 1990s.
Turkey is also making inroads in Kyrgyzstan, opening mosques and schools and strengthening its energy collaboration. While Kyrgyzstan remains Russia’s ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and is a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Union (EAEU), the Kremlin is struggling to preserve its cultural influence in the country.
In neighboring Kazakhstan – another Russian ally in the CSTO and the EAEU – Turkey has plans to invest around $2 billion, mostly in light industry.
More recently, however, Kazakhstan has shown signs of distancing itself from Russia as it looks to diversify its foreign policy.
To take advantage, Ankara should move to become a transit point for Kazakh oil and rare earth metals bound for the European Union, and to create an energy corridor connecting Turkey and Central Asia.
Turkey’s timing could be perfect. Kazakhstan is expected to approve a draft agreement on a transport corridor that would connect China with the EU through Kazakhstan and Turkey.
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, better known as the Middle Corridor, would bypass Russia and position Turkey as an important transit country.
Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and “pipeline politics.”
(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same. This article was published in an arrangement with Syndication Bureau.)
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