Can BJP Win Gujarat in 2019 Lok Sabha Polls? The Contest Has Begun

What lies ahead for Gujarat BJP?

CM Vijay Rupani and Dy CM Nitin Patel with Gujarat Governor OP Kohli

(Photo: Rahul Nair/The Quint)

Vijay Rupani and Nitin Patel will rule Gujarat for the next five years as chief minister and deputy chief minister, after the BJP’s victorious MLAs met at Kamalam in Gandhinagar on Friday, 22 December, and unanimously voted for the two. Party observers Arun Jaitley and Saroj Pandey also attended the meeting.

Now that the dust has settled on the Gujarat polls this year, the saffron brigade is eyeing the 2019 general elections. The Assembly elections in Gujarat have certainly shaken the foundations of the BJP as it managed to cross the half-way mark with just seven seats, and an additional seat to break the three-figure mark after an independent declared support to the party on Friday.

So what is in store for the Gujarat BJP in the next one year ahead of the general elections?

Appointment Rife with Speculation

Even though analysts agreed that Vijay Rupani and Nitin Patel will be reinstated, many prominent names were lobbied from the day the results were declared. These names included Union Minister Smriti Irani and Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala. The norm entails declaring the sitting CM as the new CM whenever the incumbent government wins the assembly elections.

However, the BJP decided to take the consensus of party seniors, observers and victorious MLAs to take a call on who will be the next CM of Gujarat.

Some believe that there could be a change of leadership in the state and a Patidar leader will be appointed as CM of Gujarat before the big elections, while Rupani could be appointed as the governor of a state.

Abating Discontent

PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. (Photo: PTI/IANS/Altered by The Quint)

The BJP till the 2017 assembly elections banked on Narendra Modi to deliver as he was ruling the state during the 2012 elections and left for the centre in 2014. It was Modi’s persistence and persuasion that turned the tide in BJP’s favour after relentless campaigning coupled with emotional outburst and digression from the agenda of development.

In fact, once the results were out it was shocking to know that in 13 seats where PM Modi held rallies, the Congress won the constituencies. Not to forget Rahul Gandhi’s impact during the campaigning as he challenged Modi in his own backyard. Although the results went in BJP’s favour, close inspection reveals that the BJP managed to pull off the victory as it heavily relied on the urban voters.

The rural voters were all in support for the Congress which won 55 seats in the rural belt. The BJP needs to address the farmers issue to ensure that their vote bank doesn’t collapse in the 2019 elections.

Plethora of Problems

Patidar leader Hardik Patel addressing a rally in Surat.(Photo: The Quint)

Mission 2019 for the BJP in Gujarat is an uphill task. To begin with, the Patidar agitation for reservation continues, albeit the rival PAAS faction’s intention to rake up OBC status for farmers which will help the economically backward Patidars gain benefits of reservation.

Surat, where the fortune favoured the BJP could turn its back yet again during the 2019 elections. People in Surat voted for the BJP knowing well that Modi holds Delhi, and that any allegiance towards Congress could spell doom for the traders. Traders in Surat were quite vocal about their discontentment with the BJP especially after GST was implemented.

Farmers’ issues too will hurt the BJP as it did in Saurashtra and many rural areas of the state which voted against the BJP. The biggest factor for the farmers have been the Minimum Support Price (MSP), promised by the BJP, which never saw the light of day. Rahul Gandhi had factored in the MSP issue and assured the farmers higher returns on produce.

This issue will again be raked up in a couple of years when the nation goes to vote for a new prime minister. In 2014, Gujarat unanimously voted in favour of the BJP, who took home all 26 Lok Sabha seats. However, there is no guarantee that the same feat will be repeated as the opposition is gradually mobilising across the country and the fallout of demonetisation and GST will eventually take its toll on BJP’s performance.

This adds more pressure on Rupani and Patel who had a harrowing time campaigning against the anti-incumbency wave and were almost written off during counting. The Gujarat BJP needs to dig deep and introspect its follies; Hindutva and anti-Islam rhetoric will not help Modi secure Gujarat’s support for the 2019 elections.