Rajasthan Numbers: BJP Needs Pilot to Cross 20 & Get All ‘Others’

Ashok Gehlot preempted Sachin Pilot’s threat through some smooth moves but the crisis is far from over

Sachin Pilot’s supporters has claimed that they have over 20 MLAs and that Ashok Gehlot’s government is in a minority

(Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

“Yes I am a magician. I belong to the Mali caste, which has a tiny base...there is only one MLA from the community....and yet I became chief minister thrice. This is magic, isn’t it?” said a beaming Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, after being asked about the moniker ‘Jadugar’ or magician that he has acquired in Rajasthan politics.

The title has its roots in the fact that as a child, Gehlot often had to assist his father, who was a famous magician. And as the Rajasthan CM, Gehlot has had to use many magic tricks to overcome the latest threat to his government, due to the rebellion of Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot.

Even as Gehlot carried out a show of strength of over 100 MLAs, a pro-Pilot MLA put out a video a few hours later questioning the CM’s claims.

The Numbers Game

The video has been put up by Vishvendra Singh, cabinet minister for tourism and Devsthan and MLA from Deeg Kumher in Bharatpur and it is from the meeting that took place at Pilot’s residence. It shows that around are 20 leaders present. However, it couldn’t be verified if all are MLAs.

The numbers are still tricky. On paper, the Congress had the support of 124 MLAs in the 200 member Assembly:

• Congress: 107
• BTP: 2
• CPI-M: 2
• RLD: 1
• Independents: 12

The BJP on the other hand is assured of the support of 76 MLAs - 72 of its own, three from Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and one independent.

If Pilot is able to wean away 20 MLAs and given the Bharatiya Tribal Party’s decision to abstain, the Congress’ tally comes down to 102. if all 12 Independents and one RLD MLA switch sides to the BJP, it would bring both sides to 89. This is easier said than done as many Independents are considered loyal to Gehlot.

A lot would therefore depend on Pilot’s ability to cross 20 MLAs and on BJP getting all the Independents on its side. Anything less than that would still keep Gehlot safe.

When Did the Gehlot-Pilot Tussle Start?

The tussle between the two leaders pre-dates the formation of the Gehlot-led Congress government in 2018. After the Congress' humiliating defeat in the 2013 Assembly elections, Pilot was given charge of the Rajasthan state Congress unit. He worked hard in the Opposition and repeatedly put the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government on the mat.

Meanwhile, Gehlot became national general secretary of the Congress and de-facto number two after Rahul Gandhi took over reins of the party. But despite this, he never quite gave up pulling the strings in his home state. So on the eve of the 2018 Assembly elections, Gehlot managed to get a sizable number of tickets for his supporters.

When the results were announced, the Congress had fallen just short of a majority and Gehlot-backed candidates had done better than Pilot-backed ones. Pilot's supporters alleged sabotage from Gehlot.

Rahul Gandhi with Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.(Photo: Twitter/@RahulGandhi)

But Rahul Gandhi made Gehlot the CM anyway as the need of the moment was to have a leader who could keep MLAs happy and win over independents and smaller parties. Pilot’s limited popularity in the Marwar and Mewar regions also went against him.

Pilot sulked and his supporters protested on the streets, demanding that he be made CM.

As a compromise, he was made deputy chief minister and allowed to remain the state unit chief. But he wasn't given key portfolios like home and finance, instead he got public works and rural development.

The Tipping Point

The compromise worked for a while. But when Rahul Gandhi resigned as party chief in July 2019, the equations changed. Gehlot like many of the old guard leaders began asserting themselves more and younger ones like Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Navjot Sidhu felt sidelined in their respective states.

Image of Sachin Pilot (L) and Jyotiraditya Scindia used for representational purposes.(Photo: Kamran Akhter / The Quint)

Pilot's supporters say that he wasn't being consulted on government appointments and transfers, he was seldom called to official functions, including big inaugurations from his own department.

The latest tipping point for Pilot is said to have come with Gehlot allegedly making attempts to get him replaced as PCC chief.

Gehlot's Pre-Emptive Strike, Pilot's Retaliation

However, it is believed that Gehlot preempted Pilot's rebellion by alleging a plot to topple his government and the arrest of two individuals by the Special Operations Group. Pilot couldn't gather the MLAs he had hoped for. Gehlot went for the kill and in a show of strength, carried out a headcount of over 100 MLAs in front of the media on 13 July. For the time being, this put paid to claims by Pilot's supporters that he has the support of 30 MLAs.

However, the trouble is far from over for Gehlot. The fact that he had to take his MLAs to a resort, indicated that there are still fears that some of them could be made to switch. The sudden raids by Income Tax officials on pro-Gehlot MLAs and businessmen added to Gehlot's woes and could potentially scare MLAs.

The later on Monday, the Bharatiya Tribal Party - whose two MLAs are said to have been supporting Gehlot - suddenly announced that it would abstain in the event of a trust vote.

Then one by one, several pro-Pilot leaders like Ramesh Meena, Hemaram Chaudhary and Deependra Singh Shekhawat began attacking Gehlot, indicating that the rebellion is far from over. One of them went to the extent of demanding a trust vote on the floor of the House, claiming that the government is in a minority.

What Lies Ahead

Given the over 30-seat gap between the Congress and the BJP, bringing down the government in Rajasthan is a far tougher task than what it was in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress' lead was in single digits.

The picture will be clear on the morning of Tuesday 14 July, when the Congress Legislature Party is supposed to meet. Till then the Congress may continue to try keeping Pilot and the MLAs within the party, while the BJP could attempt maneuvers of its own.