Will Rahul’s Visit to Poll-Bound Gujarat Break Cong’s Dry Spell?

Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi waves at crowd during a public meeting in Jamnagar, Gujarat, on 26 September.

(Photo: PTI)

When a political party has been out of power for 22 years in a particular region, it needs to pull out all stops to stoke even a little enthusiasm among the voters. This is why all eyes have been on Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi since he began his campaign in Gujarat on 25 September.

Rahul’s campaign slogan – Yuva Rozgaar, Khedut Adhikaar – promises employment to the youth and basic rights to farmers, but it hasn’t been restricted to just these demographics. On his three-day tour, Gandhi visited numerous temples, held meetings with GST and demonetisation-hit business owners, and listened to the grievances of women living in rural areas. Whether on local or national issues, his rhetoric has skewered the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consistently.

In the course of three days, the Congress organised almost 20 events – with at least one daily assembly of a considerable size – in Dwarka, Jamnagar, Morbi, Surendranagar, and Rajkot. Some of these were more intimate gatherings, like a meeting with 200 women from the village of Chobari in Surendranagar on the last day.

BJP Without Modi

This is the first time since 2002 that the BJP is set to contest the Gujarat Assembly elections in December without Narendra Modi occupying the Chief Ministerial seat. Modi will, beyond a doubt, still feature prominently in BJP’s campaign posters, but it is equally true that since his rise to power in the 2014 elections, the party has had its share of ups and downs:

1. The Patidar agitation spearheaded by Hardik Patel
2. BJP’s defeat in district panchayat elections
3. Anger and resentment among farmers and minorities
4. Congress’ Ahmed Patel winning a Rajya Sabha seat

A leader from Gujarat Congress told The Quint:

Ahmed Patel’s victory in the Rajya Sabha elections last month has infused the party with a new spirit of enthusiasm and confidence. We has been working on a strategy for the Assembly elections with renewed vigour since then.

To this end, the Congress decided to capitalise on the anti-BJP sentiment prevalent among the Patidar community by making Saurashtra, a Patel stronghold, the first stop in Gandhi’s campaign itinerary.

What Progress?

The second day of the campaign trail found Gandhi at a street corner meeting somewhere between Jamnagar and Morbi, loudly asking his audience, “What has happened to progress in Gujarat?”

The equally loud answer was, “It has gone mad.”

The slogan – “progress has gone mad” – has become viral on social media and become a nuisance for the BJP in Gujarat. Even during the campaign, Gandhi made sure to satirise the BJP’s development model in Gujarat and invoked the slogan at every available opportunity.

As per our information, while the slogan has been coined by the local public, the Congress social media team is doing its utmost to incorporate it within their own strategy to undermine BJP’s hold on the state.

Restlessness in the BJP Camp

While the party’s official policy might be to dismiss the entire roadshow, Gandhi’s campaign has the leaders at the highest levels worried. Perhaps this is why right before the Congress campaign, the BJP declared, in an effort to appease farmers, that it would procure groundnut at Rs 900 per 20 kg instead of the prevailing market rate of Rs 600 per 20 kg. Many of these farmers, in conversation with The Quint, derided this move as a lollipop of appeasement.

The BJP is also scrambling to get the agitating Patidars on their side. It is no coincidence that while the Congress VP was conducting his campaign in Morbi, home to a majority of Patel farmers, the Gujarat government was in a meeting with the representatives of Patidar Aarakshan Andolan Samiti and Sardar Patel Group.

After the meeting, the government said that it would consider withdrawing cases filed against Patel agitators in the aftermath of the violent protests in 2015. It also declared the formation of a Commission that would explore the possibility of reservation for those who are excluded under the current system.

Hardik Patel Factor

Hardik Patel, the leader of the Patidar agitation for reservation in education and government jobs, had created tremors within the BJP ranks by tweeting out a welcome message to Gandhi at the beginning of the latter’s Gujarat campaign. When asked about a possible coalition between the Patidars and the Congress, our source said:

Hardik Patel is bent on undermining the power of the BJP which is beneficial to the Congress. In the coming days, if a coalition is officially announced, it wouldn’t come as a surprise.

Congress Needs to Go in for the Kill

In the last 20 years, things have never looked as promising for the Congress as they do now. The upcoming December elections are the best time for the Congress to go in for the kill.

For this to happen, local Congress leaders and workers need to develop a do-or-die attitude and aid Gandhi to their fullest capacity. They need to be fully cognisant of the BJP’s power in drawing reluctant voters to the polling booths and of the magnetic hold Modi has on the populace. This killer instinct was markedly absent in the ranks during Congress’ three-day roadshow.

Rahul’s Key-Words

Rahul Gandhi’s campaign has made it clear that issues like farmer loans, GST, demonetisation, development, and employment will be the mainstays of Congress’ rhetoric in its fight against the BJP.

When Gandhi had kick-started the roadshow by performing puja at Dwarkadhish temple, many had speculated whether this was the beginning of a new kind of politics for the Congress. My personal opinion is that it is perfectly in keeping with Congress’ tactics since even during the Uttar Pradesh campaign last year, Gandhi had visited every temple and mosque that fell on his route.

Congress’ campaign managers have divided Gujarat into four chunks to map out a strategy for movement during the roadshow. In the coming days, Gandhi will be seen visiting northern, central, and southern parts of the state.

(The story was originally published on Quint Hindi.)