Power at Cost of Eroding Votebank? Pros & Cons of Sena Dumping BJP

Will the party gaining the CM’s seat be enough for Sena voters to accept the dumping of their ideological partner?

(Photo: The Quint)

Video editor: Veeru Krishan Mohan

The Shiv Sena has dumped the BJP in the race for power in Maharashtra, and seems all set to ally with the NCP instead, possibly with outside support from the Congress.

So, what are the pros and cons of Sena’s call to leave BJP? What will the cost of this ideological compromise be? Will the party gaining the CM’s kursi be enough for Sena voters to accept the dumping of the party’s ideological partner?

Let’s look at the benefits for the Sena first.

Sena Gets CM Post, Second Fiddle No More

Uddhav Thackeray has referred to the state having a Sena CM as his father and Sena founder late Bal Thackeray’s dream.

The Sena getting the CM’s post and having more than an equal share of power in the Sena-NCP government will be a significant step up from the party’s position over the last five years.

Since 2014, the Sena had been forced to play second fiddle to the BJP in the state – with the BJP being the senior partner in the Maharashtra government.

There was a fear within the Sena that continuing to play second fiddle in such a manner would erode its vote bank, with Sena voters switching to the ideologically similar and increasingly more powerful BJP.

Hence the Sena’s insistence for equal power sharing in the next government – an issue that eventually led to the collapse of the Sena-BJP alliance itself.

In a Sena-NCP government, the Sena will no longer be the junior partner, but in the CM’s seat.

Greater Role for Aaditya Thackeray?

The Sena being in the driver’s seat will mean that Sena scion Aaditya Thackeray will get a better shot at building his political profile.

The Sena seems keen to not repeat what they feel was Rahul Gandhi’s folly during UPA 2 – the decision to stay away from taking up any roles in government.

Aaditya Thackeray can be pushed as the face for some of the big-ticket moves by the Sena-NCP government. Additionally, holding a crucial Cabinet berth or possibly even the post of Deputy CM could help bolster his image.

Though if the next government does have a deputy CM, it will be from the NCP in all likelihood.

Regardless, the Sena-NCP government gives Uddhav Thackeray the chance to further pave the way for his son’s ascension not just within party circles, but also in the minds of voters.

Now, let’s get to the cons of the Sena and the BJP dumping each other.

A Betrayal of the Mandate: Will Voters Feel Conned?

The BJP and Sena were in a pre-poll alliance with a seat-sharing agreement across the state.

The voters of Maharashtra elected the BJP-Sena alliance to power, not the Sena-NCP.

Combined, BJP-Sena won 161 seats, 16 more than the magic figure of 145.

Now, let’s look at their individual performances.

The BJP won 105 out of the 164 seats it contested, with a win rate of 64%.

The Sena won 56 out of the 126 seats it contested, with a win rate of 44%.

So, not only was the mandate in favour of the BJP-Sena alliance, it was also significantly in favour of the BJP.

The Sena jumping ship and joining hands with the NCP could hurt the party’s image among its base.

Additionally, this may result in sections of the Sena cadre feeling a sense of disappointment – those who worked hard to defeat traditional rivals NCP and Congress in their constituencies are now being told that these are the very parties the Sena is combining forces with.

Taking support from the Congress to form the government may also risk drawing the ire of Sena voters who are stridently against the grand old party, whom they view as ideologically opposed to them.

The short-term benefits of coming to power may thus be overcome by longer-term damage to the party’s voter base.

If the Sena can have a good stint in power, however, this negative can be curtailed to a certain, even significant, extent.

Uneasy Alliance, Unstable Government?

The 1990 Assembly election in Maharashtra was the last time a single party managed to form the state government.

That was a long time ago – 29 years, to be precise. Sharad Pawar was still in the Congress, neither the BJP or the Sena had ever come to power in the state, and I wasn’t even born then. But that's not relevant.

What’s important is that for the last 24 years now, coalition politics has been dominant in Maharashtra.

So, the Sena may well be allying with the NCP now, and taking the help of the Congress even.

But the stability of such an alliance will always be in question.

For example, the Sena-NCP combine has only 110 seats, 35 less than the majority mark of 145.

To come to power, they will need help from the Congress’ 44 MLAs. But they will also need the Congress’ outside support to STAY in power.

At any point, if the Congress decides to pull its support, the Sena-NCP government is almost certain to lose in a no-confidence vote.

Given the ideological differences between the Sena and the Congress, this government will therefore always be treading on thin ice.

Sena Finds a Formidable Opponent in BMC

In the 2017 Mumbai municipal polls, the BJP had recorded a phenomenal rise, winning only two seats fewer than the Sena’s 84. It was with the BJP’s support that the Sena retained the Mayor’s post.

Now, with the breakdown of their alliance, the Sena will find the BJP to be a formidable opponent contending for power in the country’s richest civic body, the BMC.

Bye Bye, NDA

The Shiv Sena has, for the longest time, been an important ally for the BJP in national politics. But over the past few years, the Sena was one of its most bitter critics as well.

While the Sena’s exit does not alter the BJP’s sway in Parliament by much, the loss of one of its oldest allies from the NDA fold is not great news for the BJP at the national level.

The Sena will continue to have ideologically similar positions on several issues – from the Ram Mandir to the demand for a Uniform Civil Code – but that may not necessarily cause enough dissonance within the Sena-NCP alliance to alter the equation in the state.

After all, being in power in the country’s second-most electorally significant state is politically lucrative enough. If there’s anything that the last three weeks have shown, it’s exactly that.

For now, the BJP seems to have been comprehensively thwarted by an adamant Sena. But the future of Maharashtra politics may well be as rocky as these few weeks have been.