One Year of Shinde's Coup on Uddhav: Who Won Shiv Sena's Legacy? 4 Surveys Show

Which Shiv Sena has been able to claim Bal Thackeray's legacy so far? Who do the core Shiv Sena voters stand by?

One Year of Eknath Shinde's Coup on Uddhav Thackeray: Who Won Shiv Sena's Legacy? 4 Surveys Show

(Graphic: The Quint)

"I am appealing to you to make June 20 as World Traitors Day just as June 21 is observed as World Yoga Day. This must be done so that the world remembers traitors," said Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut in a letter written to the United Nations General Secretary Antonio Guterres on Tuesday, 20 June.

Detailing the rebellion engineered by Eknath Shinde exactly a year ago that led to a split in the Shiv Sena and the fall of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by Uddhav Thackeray, Raut's letter to the UN was in line with the MVA's campaign of observing the day as 'traitors day' in Maharashtra.

It was the biggest coup in Shiv Sena's history, a split bigger than even Raj Thackeray could manage in 2004. What followed was resort politics, state hopping, and the clear role of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in backing Shinde. A year on, Shinde has been able to reclaim the party's name and symbol after fighting a case before the Election Commission.

Both parties held two separate events to mark the 57th foundation day of the Shiv Sena on Monday while continuing to stake claim to the party's legacy. Who exactly has been able to claim the legacy so far? Who do the core Shiv Sena voters stand by?

Several surveys conducted in the recent past have been able to gauge the mood of Maharashtra in the Sena vs Sena battle.

Here are the key highlights of several polls conducted since January this year:

What's the Vote Percentage of Both Parties?

According to a survey by Sakal media released on 29 May while 12.5% respondents said that they plan to vote for Uddhav's party for the Lok Sabha as opposed to 5.5 % who picked Shinde's party.

With a total vote share of 18% for both parties combines, the survey indicated a significant drop from the 23.5% that a united Sena secured in 2019 and 20% it secured in 2014.

(Graphic: The Quint)

Other key findings of the survey:

• 33.7% said they plan to vote for the BJP, a tally no party has reached since the Congress split in 1998.

• While the Congress is predicted to get 19.9% votes, the NCP is expected to get 15.3%.

• Asked bout the biggest failures of the Modi government, 39.3% cited price, 18.6 cited unemployment and 12% cited fuel price hike.

• The state is vertically divided on Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister with 42.1% respondents saying that he should return in 2024 while 41.5% saying that he should not.

What Happens if Assembly Polls Were Conducted Today?

According to the survey by News Arena published on 17 June, if the Assembly elections for the 288 seats were held today, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena would get more seats than than the Uddhav-led party.

While Shinde's party is predicted to win between 20-25 seats, Uddhav's party is predicted to win between 17-19 seats.

(Graphic: The Quint)

Other key findings of the survey:

• According to the survey, while 12% respondents preferred Shinde as the CM, 9% preferred Thackeray.

• The BJP is expected to get its highest ever tally in Maharashtra with123-129 seats.

• The Shiv Sena (UBT) is expected to have dominance in the Mumbai region compared to the Shinde-led Sena. Out of the 36 seats, Mumbai the BJP is expected to get 16-18, Sena (UBT) to get 9-10, Shinde-led Sena to get 2 and Congress 5-6.

• Devendra Fadnavis is the clear choice of 35% respondents followed by Ashok Chavan (21%), Ajit Pawar (14%), Eknath Shinde (12%), and Uddhav Thackeray (9%)

• Out of the 58 seats of Pune/Desh region which is dominated by NCP, the BJP is expected to get 22-23 seats in a neck-and-neck battle with the NCP.

What if Eknath Shinde Was to Step Down as the CM?

According to a survey conducted by CVoter to gauge the mood if Eknath Shinde was to step down as the chief minister, as many as 19% respondents preferred that the BJP joins hands with Thackeray.

(Graphic: The Quint)

On possibilities if Shinde was to step down as CM, the survey showed:

• BJP-Thackeray alliance: 19%

• BJP-NCP alliance: 12%

• Return of the MVA to power: 19%

• Fresh elections: 32%

• Can't say: 18%

Who Has the Upper Hand in the Lok Sabha?

In a survey released in January this year, CVoter gave a majority to the MVA in the Lok Sabha. While a party-wise break up was not released, the survey predicted 34 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats.

(Graphic: The Quint)

A similar survey was conducted by CVoter in August 2022, just a month after the party's split, giving the MVA 30 out of the 48 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.