Mumbai, Do Read This SWOT Analysis Before You Step out to Vote!

Although there are several parties in the fray, here are the 4 important parties that are likely to dominate Mumbai

Sanjay Nirupam, Uddhav Thackeray, Devendra Fadnavis and Raj Thackeray. (Photo: Harsh Sahani/The Quint)

1. Shiv Sena

• Strengths:

Network of over 200 shakhas have reached out to voters in the most effective and direct way. Uddhav Thackeray has successfully handled and won 3 BMC elections in a row.

• Weaknesses:

Anti-incumbency of 20 years. Little presence in non-Marathi areas, which have around half of the total 227 wards. No spectacular work to showcase. Corruption allegations.

• Opportunities:

Polarisation of Marathi Hindu votes can work in its favour. If it wins or emerges as the single largest party in BMC polls, it will boost party’s morale and get better bargaining power vis-à-vis BJP.

• Threats:

BJP is trying hard to get a share of Marathi votes. All parties have targeted Shiv Sena on issues of potholes, roads and corruption. If Sena loses control of the richest municipal body, it will be cash strapped, say observers. Some party leaders may question Uddhav’s leadership and desert him.

2. Bharatiya Janata Party

• Strengths:

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has a clean image. BJP is ruling at the Centre and in the State. PM Modi’s image is intact to a large extent despite demonetisation. The party has spent a bomb on advertising in all forms.

• Weaknesses:

As BJP was always a junior partner to Shiv Sena in local polls, it doesn’t have a strong presence at the grassroots. Party’s image took a dent as many history-sheeters were given tickets.

• Opportunities:

The entire campaigning has been positive and full of promises. If BJP wins BMC, it will mean the party has found roots in Mumbai and it can win without a Modi wave. It will help BJP in the second biggest state of Maharashtra in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

• Threats:

BJP may not get votes in Marathi areas as Shiv Sena has portrayed it as a party of Gujaratis and Marwaris. But in fact, a section of Gujarati and Marwari business community is apparently unhappy due to demonetisation.

A Gujarati woman wearing CM Devendra Fadnavis’ mask waiting for BJP’s final rally to begin in Mumbai. (Picture: Ashish Dikshit)

3. Indian National Congress

• Strengths:

It is the only major party in Mumbai which was not part of the ruling alliance for 20 years. It can therefore take advantage of the perceived anti-incumbency against Shiv Sena and the BJP.

• Weaknesses:

Infighting among 5 factions of the party. Lack of effective speakers. Little presence in Marathi areas. Ineffective work as opposition party. Inability to ally with the NCP.

• Opportunities:

Perceived anger against demonetisation can help. A decent performance in BMC polls can enthuse the demotivated party cadres across the state.

• Threats:

A clash between a mighty BJP and an aggressive Shiv Sena has badly affected Congress in the past. With division of Muslim votes between MIM and SP, Congress may find it difficult to retain its tally.

4. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena

• Strengths:

Raj Thackeray’s oratory is probably the biggest strength. The campaigning was positive, showcasing party’s work in Nashik. The party has tried to improve its image by talking about real issues instead of targeting migrants.

• Weaknesses:

Many sitting corporations have deserted Raj, accusing him of being lazy and inaccessible. Raj lost valuable time of campaigning as his son was hospitalised. Weak party structure.

• Opportunities:

Raj Thackeray still has a following. If he works hard on strengthening the party structure, MNS can become a relevant force in the state politics.

• Threats:

If MNS performs poorly, more leaders will abandon Raj and it will be very difficult for him to revive the party.