Meghalaya Election Results: Conrad Sangma's NPP Has 4 Options to Get a Majority

The most likely scenario in Meghalaya is an NPP-BJP government with a few Independents and smaller parties.

Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma confirmed that he has tested positive for COVID-19 and is currently in home quarantine.

(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@SangmaConrad)

Meghalaya chief minister Conrad Sangma seems headed for a second term, with his National People's Party inching towards the majority mark in the Meghalaya Assembly elections.

However, it does seem that the NPP won't be able to reach the half-way figure of 30 on its own and may need the help of other parties.

Sangma has kept his options open and in his first reaction after the results, he said that his party "will see what next steps are to be taken based on the final results".

So here are some of the options he has.

1. Post-Poll Coalition with BJP and Independents

In the outgoing government in Meghalaya, the NPP had a post-poll alliance with the BJP, UDP, PDF and HSPDP.

This time the NPP has done well enough not to need such an elaborate coalition and can easily form a government along with the BJP and Independents.

It may choose to add one or two smaller parties as well for the sake of stability.

Though the NPP and BJP fought a bitter election, the two remain allies at the Centre. Coming together in a post-poll coalition may be beneficial for both.

Having the BJP on its side may be beneficial from the point of view of central funds and also regarding the border dispute with Assam.

Given BJP's aggressive approach, not many parties in the Northeast want to be on the wrong side of it.

But the numbers may just help Sangma get better leverage from the BJP.

2. NPP-Congress Alliance

This seems unlikely given Conrad Sangma's public statements that his party remains part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

But the NPP can also potentially take the support of the Congress in addition to a few Independents and smaller parties.

Though traditional rivals since Conrad Sangma's father Purno Sangma left the Congress in 1998, equations between the two parties were altered in the recent past. This is because of the shift of Mukul Sangma and a number of MLAs from the Congress to the Trinamool Congress. Mukul Sangma and Conrad Sangma's family have been traditional rivals in the Garo hills and his exit opened up the possibility of some kind of understanding with the Congress.

But this is unlikely as it would involve a complete recalibration of the NPP's allegiances at the national level.

3. A Purely Regional Coalition

The NPP could also choose to ally with a few regional parties, with or without accommodating the BJP. It can choose from among its erstwhile post-poll allies like the UDP, HSPDP and PDF.

However, a lot would depend on how these parties plan to pitch themselves in the state. The UDP was trying to present itself as the main regionalist party in the state, especially in the Khasi Hills.

The party has led governments in Meghalaya in the past and had ambitions of doing that again. So it remains to be seen if the UDP would be open to being a junior partner to NPP yet again or whether it would want to pitch itself as the main Opposition.

4. A Coalition of 'Change'

This would be an interesting option, a coalition led by NPP but including the newly formed Voice of the People Party. Founded by Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit, formerly with UDP and HSPDP, the VPP fielded a number of fresh faces in the election and promised clean, pro-people governance. They also expressed ideological Opposition to the BJP.

This is a fresh force in Meghalaya's politics, especially in the Khasi hills. It would be interesting how Conrad Sangma looks at them - as a potential challenger or as a counterweight to traditional parties in the Khasi Hills.

It also remains to be seen if the VPP would want to be part of the ruling coalition or try and grow as the main Opposition in the state, given that its USP is opposition to traditional parties.