Maharashtra Elections: Who's Leading Right Now? 7 Clear Trends from the Ground
Don't go by Lok Sabha results, Maharashtra elections aren't a foregone conclusion. Here are 7 trends from the ground
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The last date for the withdrawal of nominations for the Maharashtra elections was on 4 November and now the battle lines are formally drawn between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi in all 288 seats in India's richest state.
So who is winning Maharashtra?
There are six clear trends we are noticing from the ground and one that is being talked about in political circles.
Don't Go By the Lok Sabha Results
The MVA comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (SSUBT) and Sharad Pawar's NCP (NCPSP), won 29 out of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. The Sangli seat was won by an Independent tacitly backed by the Congress and Pawar. The BJP-led Mahayuti on the other hand won 18 seats out of 48, a fall of 25 seats from its 2019 tally.
The MVA's win, though significant, was narrower than it looks. Had the Assembly segment level lead been in the same ratio as the 29:18 Lok Sabha tally of the two alliances, it would have been 174 for the MVA and 108 for the Mahayuti, a gap of 66 Assembly segments.
However, in reality, the MVA was leading in 151 out of 288 segments in the state against Mahayuti's 128, a gap of 23 seats. This means that MVA may have led in certain segments with much larger margins that helped it at the Lok Sabha level but it doesn't translate into a decisive lead at the Assembly level.
One or two percent votes changing in one direction or the other and the entire picture could change.
In absolute numbers, the difference between the two alliances was just two lakh votes.
And this is just an analysis of the Lok Sabha numbers. There's also the possibility that a lot may have changed between the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly elections.
For instance, smaller parties which had a negligible presence at the Lok Sabha level, now may become more important - such as the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, Prahar Janshakti Party etc.
Then the contest will be much more localised and a lot would depend on candidates. Macro factors that were in play in the Lok Sabha elections - like PM Narendra Modi's appeal or the INDIA Bloc's 'Save the Constitution' pitch - may not be as crucial at the Assembly level.
Regional Differences
Based on our own interactions in the field as well as inputs from across the state, it seems that each alliance has an advantage in different regions. The Mahayuti seems to be clearly ahead in Konkan and Thane and it also has a slight lead in Northern Maharashtra. Konkan and Thane is where the Shiv Sena split has harmed Uddhav Thackeray the most.
On the other hand, the MVA seems to have taken a lead in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada, though to a lesser extent than in the Lok Sabha elections.
In Mumbai city and Mumbai suburban, the two alliances seem evenly matched but the alliance arithmetic may give the MVA a slight edge. More on that later.
In the end, it seems that the region that may end up deciding the election is Vidarbha. This is also a region where close to 35 seats will see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress and these are seats to watch out for.
Eknath Shinde's Standing Has Improved
Eknath Shinde was an unlikely CM when he took over the position following his coup against Uddhav Thackeray. But by most accounts, he has grown into the job. And there isn't much negativity towards him, even among many voters who may otherwise unhappy with the Mahayuti.
Shinde may not be charismatic or a great orator but he is seen as a hard working CM and a down-to-earth politician. The credit for many of the Mahayuti's schemes - especially Ladki Bahin - seems to have gone to Shinde and not the BJP.
The question, however, is whether this positive sentiment will translate into votes because Shinde is also clearly a junior partner to the BJP. And the BJP's campaign has focused more on PM Narendra Modi and former CM Devendra Fadnavis, than Shinde. This may have confused voters a bit.
Sharad Pawar is Playing His Cards Cleverly
NCPSP is emerging as probably the strongest party in the MVA and the credit for that goes to how Sharad Pawar is leading the campaign from the front.
Until a few months ago, the NCPSP seemed short of good candidates, with most of the constituency-level heavyweights backing Ajit Pawar. But Sharad Pawar has made up for it through some clever acquisitions.
In Sindhkhed Raja, he brought on board Rajendra Shingne from the NCP, in Tumsar he inducted Charan Waghmare a BJP politician who had briefly shifted to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi.
Both these seats were being considered as sure-shot ones for the NCP. They have now become close.
Caste Polarisation May Be Overstated
Yes, reservation is a big issue and there has been some Maratha shift away from the BJP and some OBC consolidation towards it due to the quota row. But the degree of polarisation isn't very sharp. The Mahayuti is still getting a big chunk of Maratha votes. In fact, according the Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey, Mahayuti is slightly ahead of MVA among Marathas. On the other hand, the MVA is getting a significant amount of OBC votes, though they are behind Mahayuti in this demographic.
Then, within OBCs, the Dhangar community, which has till now been pro-BJP, are moving away from the party to some extent.
It seems that the communities may not necessarily vote only on the basis of the reservation demand. Issues like water crisis and MSP for soyabean and cotton affect farmers across caste groups and they are also shaping voting patterns. On the other hand, Ladki Bahin is reported to have benefited women across communities.
In the end, many voters may also end up voting more on the basis of loyalty to individual candidates.
According to the CSDS survey, in only three social groups does there seem to be a major consolidation in favour of one alliance or the other - Muslims and neo-Buddhists for the MVA (a lead of 48 and 44 percentage points respectively) and Upper Caste Hindus for the Mahayuti (a lead of 45 percentage points).
SSUBT is the Weak Link in MVA
Shiv Sena, even before the split, has been a party whose electoral performance doesn't quite match its influence in the ground.
It has never won more than 50 percent of the seats it contested in the state. Even in its best performance - in 1995 - it won 73 out of 169 seats.
The SSUBT is facing three problems in this election.
First, a sizable part of its constituency-level leadership and organisation has been taken away by Shinde, especially outside of Mumbai. Therefore in many places, it doesn't have a presence.
Second, in many seats SSUBT has very little presence by which it can help its allies. And conversely in some seats, especially in Konkan, the Congress and NCPSP have very little to transfer to the SSUBT.
Third, ideologically, there is a degree of incompatibility between SSUBT on one hand and Congress and NCPSP on the other, not to mention smaller and even more ideologically different allies for the SSUBT like Samajwadi Party and CPM. BJP and Shinde are both taking advantage of this.
The exception to this is Mumbai. Here the alliance arithmetic seems to be working well, with Congress-NCPSP's base, especially Muslims and Dalits, transferring reasonably smoothly to the SSUBT and Uddhav Thackeray's own base also willing to support his allies.
Post Poll Scenario May Be Different
"The election will be decided post poll" is a refrain that one is hearing from individuals in both the alliances.
It is likely that one out of the two alliances may cross the majority mark, either on its own or with the help of like-minded smaller parties.
However, the alliances as they exist today may alter after the elections. Especially one or two of the four big regional parties - NCP, NCPSP, Shiv Sena and SSUBT - may undergo some churn.
At the two ends of the chessboard would be Amit Shah and Sharad Pawar and they may have a few moves in store.
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