Madhya Pradesh Exit Polls Predict Win for BJP & CM Chouhan, Rout For Congress

If the exit poll predictions are proven right, it will reaffirm BJP's place as the dominant party in the state.

The exit poll results were released on 30 November. 

(The Quint)

A majority of the exit polls have predicted a BJP win in Madhya Pradesh, ahead of the results slated for 3 December. The exit polls were released on late Thursday, 30 November, two days before the election results.

The Axis My India poll for India Today has predicted a clean sweep for the BJP 140-162, while predicting a meagre 68-90 seats for the Congress. The survey has predicted a vote share of 47 per cent for BJP, and 41 per cent for Congress.

News24 Today’s Chanakya has predicted an even bigger victory for the BJP in MP. The survey has predicted the incumbent party will win 151 ± 12 seats, while Congress will win only 74 ± 12 Seats seats. The exit poll has also predicted 45% (±3%) vote share for the BJP, and 38% (±3%) for Congress.

Meanwhile Republic - P-Marq - MATRIZE exit poll has also predicted a win for the BJP, albeit not a landslide. The exit poll has predicted that the BJP will win 118-130 seats, while the Congress might win 97-107 seats.  The difference in vote share, as per the survey, is also small. The exit poll has predicted that the BJP will win 43.4% votes, while the Congress will be a close second with 41.7% votes.  

On the contrary, the C Voter, has predicted that the Congress could win 113-137 seats in MP — a vast range—and a prediction of 88-112 seats for the BJP. The survey has predicted a vote share of 44.1 per cent for the Congress and 40.7 for the BJP.  

What a Landslide Would Mean For BJP

BJP has been in power for nearly two decades in Madhya Pradesh, since 2003, barring the 15 months when the Congress formed the government in the state after the 2018 assembly elections. Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP was dethroned, and Congress’ Kamal Nath became the Chief Minister. However, a series of defections from the Congress to the BJP, led by Jyotiraditya Scindia, led to the fall of the Congress government and the return of the BJP in 2020.

If the BJP does win, it is highly likely that Shivraj Singh Chouhan will be retained as CM. This would mean that Chouhan will be reinstated as CM of MP for the fifth time, a remarkable feat.

This will also come as a boost for the BJP and help it reaffirm its place as the dominant party of the state. While the 2020 usurping of power from Congress’ hand, by way of defections, meant that BJP returned to power, it isn’t the same as winning the public’s mandate. However, a win this time around, as predicted by a majority of the exit polls, will bring back unquestionable legitimacy to the party’s popularity in the state.  

What This Means For Congress

Congress’ return to power in MP in 2018, after a gap of 15 years, brought a burst of confidence in the party’s cadre in the state. Even after the 2020 fiasco—of BJP returning to power— Congress leaders maintained that it is the Congress that enjoys the support of the public, as validated by the then election results. However, if the BJP does return to power this time, defeating all anti-incumbency, it will bring Congress back to a shaky ground in the state.

Moreover, if the Congress loses Madhya Pradesh, the party will also be forced to reassess its strategy, ahead of the 2024 elections, of trying to amp up its Hindutva outreach, as it did this time in the state. The Bajrang Sena, a right-wing group that was jilted with the BJP, joined hands with the Congress this time around, and the party also tried to woo temple priests—a traditional BJP vote bank—by promising them greater land rights.