Next CM of Himachal Pradesh: Dhumal Lost, But What Now for BJP?

BJP CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal has conceded defeat, so who is next in line?

BJP CM candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal has conceded defeat.

(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/Prem Kumar Dhumal)

Even as the BJP is emerging victorious, its chief ministerial candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, has conceded defeat in the constituency of Sujanpur.

Incidentally, this elections, the BJP fronted a CM candidate before the polls, out of step with its tradition of fighting elections under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s name. There is enough reason to believe that, losing Sujanpur, Dhumal invariably drops out of the race for CM’s position too.

But wait, let’s not write off Prem Kumar Dhumal just yet. Political analyst Vepa Rao said:

If BJP really wants him to be the Chief Minister, they can still make him that. This is not unprecedented. After Arun Jaitley lost in Amritsar in 2014, he still went on to get a place of paramount importance in the cabinet.

So will BJP do a Jaitley with Dhumal or will they do away with him?

And if not Dhumal, who is going to be the next chief minister of Himachal Pradesh? Here are some possibilities.

1. JP Nadda

Jagat Prakash Nadda, the current Union Health Minister, was expected to be the choice of CM candidate before BJP president Amit Shah announced Dhumal’s name. Nadda is a Rajya Sabha MP from Himachal, has extensive knowledge of the state, and reportedly spends every other weekend in capital, Shimla.

Union Health Minister JP Nadda.(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@JPNadda)

The only factor going against Nadda is perhaps the fact that he is a Brahmin, in a state that has traditionally been a Thakur stronghold.

Political analyst Vepa Rao too believes Nada's experience and understanding of administration coupled with his closeness to the central leadership can work massively in his favour, since all the funds come from the centre and an underdeveloped state like Himachal could really use them.

2. Jai Ram Thakur

Former BJP state president Jai Ram Thakur is a possible contender to become CM. With an ABVP background, Thakur has been associated with the party since his student days. This elections, he has registered an impressive lead of over 10,000 votes in the Seraj constituency.

Moreover, he is close to Nadda, making his chances favourable if Nadda himself isn’t chosen as CM.

Jai Ram Thakur.(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@Jairam71701144)

Where Thakur has an edge over Nadda is his caste. Thakur is a Rajput, as is favourable in the politics of the hill state.

3. Suresh Bhardwaj

Suresh Bhardwaj, the BJP leader who retained his Shimla Urban seat with a comfortable majority of 1,903 votes, is another contender to look at. Bhardwaj is a senior party leader and three-time legislator. Like Thakur, he too has had close ties with the party since his student days.

Suresh Bhardwaj.(Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@Sarita11451736)

While political commentator and journalist Saurabh Chauhan said that Suresh Bhardwaj stood a chance, he maintained that Jairam Thakur was a more likely contender.

4. Anurag Thakur

The former president of the BCCI, Anurag Thakur is Dhumal’s son and a popular youth face. He has been elected as an MP from his home state thrice, and currently holds the constituency of Hamirpur. He was the party’s youth wing president until 2016.

Anurag Thakur.(Photo: Reuters) 

None of the political analysts that The Quint got in touch with, however, listed Anurag Thakur as one of the contenders for the CM’s job.

Multiple political analysts and journalists are of the opinion that Dhumal’s constituency shift from his traditional stronghold of Hamirpur to Sujanpur is responsible for his defeat in these elections. While the people in his traditional base were deeply connected to him, the residents of Sujanpur were more sceptical. The fact that he was too busy campaigning in the entire state and did not spend enough time in Sujanpur itself could have also been responsible.

Political commentator and journalist Saurabh Chauhan believes that this shift sent out a message that none of the important people in the party pay any heed to Dhumal's wishes, since it had evidently been done against his will, which solidified the voters’ lack of certainty about him.