What the Gujarat Exit Poll Results Spell for BJP and Congress

The Quint’s Editorial Director Sanjay Pugalia gives us the key takeaways from the exit poll predictions.

What do the exit polls tell us about Gujarat?

(Photo: The Quint)

The exit poll results for Gujarat have predicted a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party. While these are just trends and the final result will be known only on Monday, 18 December, what do these predictions mean?

The Quint’s Editorial Director Sanjay Pugalia gives us the key takeaways from the predictions.

Is Modi's Popularity Continuing?

It seems like it is. This time the BJP had things to worry about in Gujarat, especially at the grassroots level. The public had reason to be angry, so BJP’s entire campaign was carried out in a defensive mode. But despite that, if BJP sweeps Gujarat as the exit polls predict, then it seems like Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s own premium vote is working, and it seems to be working better in the cities. The region-wise figures suggest the party may suffer a setback in the smaller towns and villages.

Why Is This Election So Crucial for Modi?

Gujarat is his home turf, and it is important for him to protect it, so close to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, a loss in Gujarat will reflect poorly on not only the party, but on Modi too.

Was Congress Prepared Enough?

The Congress, with President-elect Rahul Gandhi attempting to take charge, seemed to have gotten a ready platform in the state with strong feelings of anti-incumbency against BJP. But it looks like the Congress could not encash on this sentiment – BJP has tried its best to divide the anti-BJP vote.

Given the opportunity the Congress had, it should have prepared sooner. There is laziness and lack of efficiency, which is up against BJP’s attitude of ‘leave nothing to chance’. If Modi thought there is anger among the public, he could have stepped back and fought the election on CM candidate Vijay Rupani’s name. But Modi put everything on stake.

Is Forming a Government Victory Enough for BJP?

Only forming a government in the state is not victory enough for the BJP. The real victory will be if the party manages to get over 110 of the 182 Assembly seats. If BJP gets a judicious mandate, it needs to be seen as a political messaging – that the party has fallen out of favour with the public in its stronghold.

But the exit polls can also be wrong, as previous experience has taught us. Let’s wait and watch for the results on Monday.

Video Editor: Sandeep Suman