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"This arrangement between the BJP, Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will not work. The general sentiment is that a few months down the line, the frictions will only increase and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will eventually attempt to lead the government," an MLA of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (SHS) told The Quint on the condition of anonymity, while highlighting the unrest within the party in the over NCP leader Ajit Pawar joining the ranks.
By engineering a coup on the NCP and joining the Maharashtra government as the deputy chief minister on 2 July, Ajit Pawar did not just shock the voters in the state, but also many MLAs of the Eknath Shinde faction who once again find themselves in the exact dilemma they faced in 2019 when Uddhav Thackeray's decided to ally with the NCP and the Congress.
Naturally, the latest developments have left most of Shinde's MLAs red-faced.
For the past five days since Ajit Pawar's move, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena has gone from being silent on the matter to a few of them openly expressing their disappointment, presumably on behalf of many others who are not speaking to the media.
As the unrest grows, Shinde and the BJP are trying their best to pacify their fears. The whole fiasco for the Shinde and the BJP can be looked at from four large aspects:
There are five clear concerns which are reasons behind the unrest in the Shinde camp:
Loss of monopoly as the only party the BJP could rely upon to stay in power
NCP leaders being inducted into the state government while expansion of the Shinde-Fadnavis cabinet was long due to incorporate many from the Sena who were promised berths last year
Dilemma over joining hands with those they were wrestling even while being in the MVA
Having to make more compromises than promised when it comes to sharing of seats in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections scheduled for 2024
Fear that Ajit Pawar will meddle and interfere to create hurdles for them like he allegedly did in the MVA government
After two days of uneasy silence from the faction, the confirmation of the unrest came first on 4 July when senior leader Sanjay Shirsat said that several MLAs are disappointed but their fears will be pacified by Shinde.
"The Shiv Sena and the BJP had formed an alliance. The third party came unexpectedly. Whenever a third party comes, it has to be given some share which Devendra Fadnavis and Eknath Shinde have given. Because we have lost some ministerial berths, some MLAs being upset is natural and they have expressed that," Shirsat said on Wednesday.
Less than a week into the alliance, sparks have begun to fly between leaders over respective constituencies.
Parth Pawar vs Shrirang Barne:
The most prominent face-off between the NCP and the Shiv Sena has emerged in the Maval Lok Sabha constituency, a seat which Ajit Pawar's son Parth lost in the 2019 Assembly elections to united Shiv Sena's Shrirang Barne. Barne on Thursday told the media that he will represent the constituency for the BJP-Sena-NCP alliance in 2024 too.
Parth faced a similar challenge to contest from Maval as the Uddhav-led Sena was also keen to contest from the seat while Ajit was in the MVA.
Aditi Tatkare vs Bharatshet Gogawale:
NCP leader Aditi Tatkare, who was inducted into the Maharashtra cabinet on 2 July with Ajit Pawar, is already facing an open rebellion from Shiv Sena MLA Bharatshet Gogawale and his supporters in Raigad.
Daughter of Sunil Tatkare who was a former Sharad Pawar loyalist and was recently declared Maharashtra NCP 'chief' by Ajit Pawar, Aditi is a prominent OBC leader of the Raigad region and was declared the guardian minister of Raigad just two days after taking oath to objections from Gogawale.
Other than Gogawale, Aditi's appointment is being opposed by five other MLAs from Raigad. Mahendra Thorve, Shiv Sena MLA from Karjat said: "I am clearly stating that we will not accept her as the guardian minister."
Hasan Mushrif vs Sunil Ghatge:
Kolhapur Rural district BJP chief Sunil Ghatge on Thursday said that he will contest the 2024 elections against NCP leader and now cabinet minister Hasan Mushrif from the Kagal constituency.
The unrest is not just within the Shiv Sena but even within the Prahar Janshakti Party (PHJSP).
"There is a sentiment within the 40 MLAs with Eknath Shinde if they made a mistake by joining hands with the BJP. Many feel that they should have been taken into confidence before the decision since they are in the alliance. Our party is an ally in the state government but we did not know either," said PHJSP leader and Achalapur MLA Bacchu Kadu, who has been openly speaking about the unrest for the past few days.
"If dada (Ajit Pawar) is here now, he will try to grab funds for his own MLAs and meddle in the affairs of our party," Kadu told ABP Majha on Thursday.
Trying to pacify Kadu, Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule on Thursday publicly promised a "big role" to him in the alliance.
"Nobody is upset, but some disappointment is natural. He used to be a minister, so his stand is not incorrect. Leaders like Bacchu Kadu have been given prominence in this alliance which they did not get in the MVA. Hence, Devendra Fadnavis will ensure a big role for him," Bawankule said.
Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, that has been saying that Shinde won't be the CM for long after Ajit Pawar's alliance, claimed that 8-10 of Shinde's MLAs approached them to return to the "original Shiv Sena". In a media address, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Vinayak Raut claimed that the party will not accept any of them back.
Sanjay Raut even asked Shinde faction MLAs to recollect their remarks against Chhagan Bhujbal and "resign if they have any morality."
CM Shinde later broke his silence on the brewing unrest and downplayed the developments.
Cabinet minister and Shiv Sena leader Uday Samant addressed the media on Thursday to say that neither Shirsat nor Gogawale are 'upset or disappointed'. Samant, however, mentioned that Shinde now expects the cabinet expansion to happen at the earliest.
"The colleagus from our party should also get justice is the clear stand of Eknath Shinde ji. So, the pending cabinet expansion will happen soon," Samant said.
While the top leadership of the Shiv Sena and the BJP is trying hard to downplay the unrest within the alliance, it is clear that the NCP's entry has only complicated matters in what would have been a smoother equation between the two saffron parties.
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